Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Most Surprising Performer at Each Level

Triple-A Indianapolis - Alika Williams

If you want an example of a guy who had no expectations with the Pirates, look no further than Alika Williams. The Pirates acquired Williams from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for relief pitcher Robert Stephenson. Not only did the Pirates have to surrender very little to acquire Williams, but he did very little for the Rays throughout his time in their minor league system, despite being their 2020 first-round pick.

Williams had an uninspiring .254/.331/.383 triple-slash, along with a .328 wOBA and 96 wRC+ during his time in the Rays’ system. While he had a 9.4% walk rate and 18.4% strikeout rate, Williams hit for little power with a .130 isolated slugging percentage. Williams only hit .254 as well, so he only had a solid but unspectacular OBP despite his strong walk rate. While this wasn’t a terrible performance, it wasn’t close to what the Rays likely were expecting.

This really sounded like the second coming of Cole Tucker: a speedy middle infield type who was all-glove/no-hit. But Williams has been hitting better than he ever has for the Pirate Triple-A affiliate. Williams is currently batting .272/.352/.424 and 95 wRC+. His three home runs in 105 plate appearances is a rate he’s never even come close to in the past.

Williams is still walking at a 9.5% rate but has struck out just a dozen times for an 11.4% strikeout rate. Even these numbers are selling him a little short because he went 0-5 in his most recent game. Prior to that game, Williams had a .818 OPS, .366 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. Williams has four multi-hit games in July already.

Williams has been red hot since late June. Since 6/20, the infielder is batting .339/.418/.559 with a 145 wRC+. All three of his home runs as a Pirates prospect have come in this 67 plate appearance stretch. He also has six walks and seven Ks.

Williams could force himself into an already crowded middle infield picture, which I don’t think anyone would complain about. If the Pirates give him regular time in the major leagues, he’ll win a Gold Glove. With Jared Triolo now in the bigs, Williams is likely their best defensive infield prospect. His power coming around even just a little could make him an interesting prospect. It could end up being a pretty decent return for a reliever who greatly struggled for the Pirates and hasn’t done so hot for the Rays.

Double-A Altoona - Jackson Glenn

I was high on Jackson Glenn when the Pirates drafted him in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. Glenn had some outstanding college numbers, including nearly as many walks as strikeouts, 30 homers/40 doubles, and an OPS above .950. But overall, Glenn was mostly there as a way for the Pirates to save money. The first four rounds of the draft saw the Pirates take four over-slot players, and Glenn signed for less than $15,000.

Glenn’s first extended look against pro pitchers didn’t go so well. 2022 saw him turn in a mediocre .216/.297/.328 triple-slash, .292 wOBA, and 74 wRC+. While he had a 9% walk rate, he also struck out over a quarter of the time with a 26.6% strikeout rate. Also, it didn’t help that Glenn hit for almost no power. He had just four home runs in 323 plate appearances, leading to a .111 isolated slugging percentage.

The Pirates opted to let Glenn stay at Greensboro to start the 2023 season and got off to a phenomenal start. Glenn hit .299/.380/.474 with a .387 wOBA, and 134 wRC+. The infielder hit for a significant amount of more power with a .175 isolated slugging percentage while cutting his strikeout rate down significantly to just 15.8%. Plus, he upped his walk rate slightly to 10.8%. This earned Glenn a promotion to Altoona.

You’d understandably be hesitant to believe in Glenn’s numbers at Greensboro. It’s a hitter-friendly environment to start with. Not to mention that it was his second go-around at High-A, and he is in his age-25 campaign. But so far, Glenn has looked great at Double-A. He’s only appeared in five games with 25 PAs but has seven hits, three walks, and only five strikeouts. Glenn has yet to hit a home run but has three doubles.

The jump from High-A to Double-A is a big one. It’s typically where you see the separation from minor leaguers and prospects. Glenn has so far conquered Altoona in his first few games. He is older, and it’s nice to see him do well. While I doubt the Pirates are going to be making room with all their top middle infield prospects so they can get Glenn a regular major-league role, he definitely could become a solid utility infielder in the future.

High-A Greensboro - Tres Gonzalez

Tres Gonzalez is another early/mid-round draft pick I thought highly of. Like Glenn, Gonzalez was another fifth-round pick, coming a year later in 2022. Gonzalez was a high-contact hitter, batting over .330 while rarely striking out for Georgia Tech. Gonzalez’s brief introduction to professional players in late-’22 went extremely well, and so far this year, he’s continued to be a productive minor league hitter.

Gonzalez started the year out at Bradenton, where he batted .299/.427/.403. Power was never a part of Gonzalez’s game, but his ability to get on base with hits and walks carried over from college. He had an astounding 18.3% walk rate with a strong 13.4% strikeout rate. Gonzalez may have had an isolated slugging percentage barely over .100 at .104, but his OBP was well over .400.

Gonzalez was then moved up to Greensboro. His first few weeks didn’t go so well, but he eventually figured things out and has been on a hot streak since the last day of May. That stretch saw him hit .294/.414/.405 with a .388 wOBA and 134 wRC+. The only negative is that his walk rate is down to 14.4%, and his strikeout rate is up to 19%. Both are still solid remarks, however.

Gonzalez is considered an above-average defender in the outfield. He’s mostly taken up center field, though he also has a handful of games in the outfield corners. He’s also a good runner and has swiped 21 bases in 25 attempts. Gonzalez has been pretty aggressive on the basepaths, which wasn’t something he was in college.

While he will likely never hit for power, Gonzalez could be an Adam Frazier-type hitter with a higher walk rate and on-base percentage. Gonzalez should soon get the bump to Altoona. He’s already 22 (turns 23 on October 4th), and given his strong performance so far at Greensboro, it wouldn’t be a shock for him to go up three levels of the minor leagues in one year.

Low-A Bradenton - Derek Diamond

We have our first pitcher and our second 2022 draft pick of the day in the form of RHP Derek Diamond. Diamond was selected after Gonzalez. Fresh off a College World Series win with Ole Miss, Diamond has become a potential ‘diamond in the rough’ (pun intended). Despite his uninspiring surface numbers, there are some more metrics here that make him an intriguing player.

Diamond owns a 4.26 ERA on the season, but that’s mostly inflated by a .335 batting average on balls in play. The right-hander has been outstanding at limiting home runs and walks. He has a quality 0.67 HR/9 rate while only walking 4.9% of the opponents he’s faced. He also has a ground ball rate above 50% at 51.7%. Diamond’s ability to prevent walks is nothing new. He had a 4.4% walk rate in his last season in college. However, his ability to prevent home runs has become significantly better. Throughout his entire college career, Diamond had a 1.90 HR/9 rate.

All of this has led to a significantly better-looking 3.73 FIP and 3.80 xFIP. Diamond allows so few walks that it helps his sub-par 20.5% strikeout rate play up. The right-hander is one of just 14 players at the Low-A level with a K:BB ratio of at least 4.0 in 50+ innings of work. Diamond clocks in at 4.14, the 12th highest rate.

Diamond isn’t a super hard thrower but has shown some velocity in the past. In one of his most recent games, he was averaging out at 92.2 MPH with his four-seam fastball and with an above-average spin. His changeup averages out with well under 2000 RPM of spin, and he also tosses a slider and curveball with regularity.

Honorable Mentions

Josiah Sighter (Bradenton)

Had Josiah Sightler not started the year injured, he could have been one of the Pirates’ most interesting stories so far this year. He still has time to make himself an interesting story, and he’s made progress on said story by coming out of the gates with 22 hits, four home runs, five walks, and seven strikeouts in 62 plate appearances. He is currently at Bradenton, but given he was a senior pick and already 23, he very well could find himself at Altoona before the end of the year.

Braxton Ashcraft (Altoona)

If Braxton Ashcraft wasn’t a former second-rounder, he would have been the name featured over Jackson Glenn. Ashcraft has been nothing short of outstanding, pitching to a 2.50 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP in 39.2 innings. Ashcraft has both a walk rate below 5% (4.4%) and a strikeout rate approaching 30% (29.4). He has the 12th highest K:BB ratio of any pitcher with 30+ IP in the minor leagues at 6.71. Plus, he has a respectable 0.91 HR/9 and 41.3% ground ball rate.

Nick Cimillo (Bradenton)

Both age and playing time is the thing Nick Cimillo is back. He’s a year older than Diamond and has less than 150 plate appearances. Cimillo is hitting .273/.376/.521 through 141 plate appearances. Cimillo has walked 12.1% of the time with a decent 20.6% strikeout rate. Cimilio has hit for a lot of power, too, with five home runs in 141 PAs and a .248 ISO. Look for him to get the bump to Greensboro soon.

Miguel Andújar (Indianapolis)

If we weren’t looking strictly at prospects, I’d say Miguel Andújar’s season has been something else. Andujar is currently batting .361/.421/.574 with a .433 wOBA, and 148 wRC+. Andújar has struck out less than 15% of the time with a 12.9% strikeout rate and a decent 9.4% walk rate. He also has nine home runs and a .213 isolated slugging percentage on the season. These aren’t even numbers Andujar posted when he was a top prospect with the New York Yankees in the late-2010s.

Joshua Loeschorn (Bradenton)

There are only 64 minor league pitchers with a strikeout rate of at least 35% in 30+ innings. Joshua Loeschorn is one of them. Loeschorn was a 20th-round pick last season but has some very strange numbers. On top of that outstanding strikeout rate, he has an 8.6% walk rate and 0.81 HR/9. Both his FIP (3.16) and xFIP (2.68) are in the plus to plus-plus range. But he has a 4.59 ERA. He doesn’t have a strangely high BAbip (only .301), so it’s a strange conundrum. But his other metrics make him an unexpected performer, even if he doesn’t crack the list.

Mason Martin (Altoona)

The last name of the day is Mason Martin. Talk about a guy with no expectations; Martin only showed off raw power in 2022 and nothing else. This year, he’s batting .216/.369/.461 triple-slash, .377 wOBA, and 129 wRC+.

Martin has fully embraced fly balls and three-true outcomes. He has a fly ball rate of 50%, a walk rate of 17.5%, and a strikeout rate of 34.5%. Of his 255 plate appearances on the year, 57.3% have ended in a walk, strikeout, or home run. But this is his second go-around at Altoona, and he was formerly one of the Pirates’ higher-end prospects.