Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Noteable, Successful Softy Tossing Pitchers

Pitch velocity has gone up dramatically over the last handful of years, but these Pittsburgh Pirates prospects still make 90 MPH and under work for them.

Baseball pitch velocities have skyrocketed over the last handful of seasons. Ten years ago, the league average fastball velocity was just 91.7 MPH. Today, it’s 93.8 MPH. If you were to average 91.7 MPH today, your fastball would be in the low-20th percentile of fastball velocity. But having no velocity doesn’t mean you’re a bad pitcher. Guys like Justin Steele, Marcus Stroman, and Clayton Kershaw are all highly effective, despite throwing 92 MPH or slower with their four-seamer.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have some pretty hard-throwing pitching prospects throughout their system. Jared Jones can run it up in the mid-90s, while Paul Skenes regularly tops out at 102 MPH. Jun-Seok Shim is a teenager already throwing 94-96 MPH who tops out at 100, and Zander Mueth is a recent high school draftee with a Chris Sale-like arm slot and sits 92-95 MPH. But they do have some prospects who throw 90 and under but are still decent prospects.

Righty Owen Kellington

Owen Kellington is one of the Pirates’ best soft-tossing pitching prospects. A high school draft pick out of Vermont in 2021, Kellington is in his first season where he’s getting an extended look. It’s been an up-and-down year for the right-hander.

He has a solid 3.90 ERA, 0.94 HR/9, and 28% strikeout rate, but he’s also allowed walks at a 15.2% rate and has a 4.80 FIP. Kellington has done well recently, with 2.43 ERA, 4.11 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP since June 30th. He’s still striking out batters at a high rate (29.5%) and isn’t allowing many home runs (0.61), but still dishing out too many free passes (14.8%).

In Kellington’s most recent outing, he averaged just 89.4 MPH with his four-seam fastball, topping out at 90.8. However, he does throw with above-average spin with 2300-2500 RPM. He throws three more offerings: a low-spin changeup, a curveball, and a slider. His change-up and curveball are potentially plus pitches and his slider is his least-used offering. Kellington is the definition of a junk baller, with both his curveball and changeup being his best offerings.

Lefty Nick Dombkowski

Undrafted free agents are always low-risk gambles, but Nick Dombkowski has so far looked like a good gamble. In his second season as a pro ball player, Dombkowski has a 3.23 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this year at Altoona, working as a swingman. He has started six of his 30 games but has 75.1 innings pitched. Dombkowski hasn’t been able to carry over his big K% from last year, currently sitting at 16.8%. He also has a mediocre 1.43 HR/9 rate. However, his walk rate is just 6.8%, and opponents are hitting a meager .227/.281/.395 against him this season. That’s about what Willy Adames is slashing for the Brewers this season, and he has a wRC+ of just 85.

Domkowski is the hardest thrower here, though that doesn’t mean he’s a hard-throwing pitcher. He is only able to top out at 92 MPH. Though he’s typically sitting 88-91 MPH. Like a lot of soft-tossing lefties, he has a plus change-up and above-average command. His third pitch is a slider, another pitch that projects as above average. Dombkowski might find a role as a solid #6 type starter for the Pirates, sort of like Jeanmar Gomez.

Seeing 100 MPH on the radar gun is always fun, though some guys don’t even have to hit 90 to be effective regularly. Hopefully, some of the guys we talked about today can become something for the Pirates. Wolf has a very good chance of making his Pirates debut this year. Kellington is only 20, so he’s still a few years away. Given his age, he might be throwing harder in a year or two. Dombkowski might not have an exciting profile, though he could still carve out a role in the future.