Pittsburgh Pirates: Prospects That Could Be On The Opening Day Roster

Kyle Nicolas

Kyle Nicolas was acquired from the Miami Marlins in the Jacob Stallings trade. The hard-throwing righty was moved to the bullpen in the second half of the 2023 season. Although it took him a while for him to get used to his new role, he proved to be a talented reliever and one that could slot into the bullpen as soon as next season.

Now, Nicolas' season did not pitch well for a good portion of the season. His first 83.1 innings yielded a 5.92 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and 5.15 FIP. While he struck out 26.5% of the batters he faced, he also walked a ton of batters with an 11.8% walk rate and gave up a handful of home runs, working to a 1.61 HR/9. But he caught on a hot streak after these struggles.

Nicolas' final 15 innings of the season saw him work to a 1.20 ERA, 2.64 WHIP, and 0.80 WHIP. His strikeout rate rose significantly to 41.4%, while his HR/9 also fell off a cliff to just 0.60. His walk rate was still poor, but his 10.3% rate was a slight improvement from his first handful of innings.

This strong hot streak helped him get to the big leagues, but his first game was abysmal. He allowed six earned runs while only making one out. After that, he would pitch five more frames but only allowed one ER, struck out seven, walked two, and allowed two to reach base via a walk. Nicolas' stuff in the bigs looked great, as he sat 97 MPH with a ton of carry through the zone. His slider also had above-average movement. He only used his curveball eight times, but it was an effective offering with a ton of drop.

Nicolas definitely deserves an extended look in the bigs next year. His stuff in his short MLB look was outstanding. He has closer potential but will likely open his MLB career as a middle reliever. But I would not be surprised if he ended the year as one of the Pirates' top set-up options.

Jackson Wolf

The Pirates acquired Jackson Wolf from the San Diego Padres in the Rich Hill/Ji-Man Choi swap. Although Wolf has just one game played above Double-A, which happened to be his big league debut with the Padres, the side-arm southpaw could find himself as part of the Pirates' Opening Day pitching staff.

Before getting traded, Wolf had a solid 4.08 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP for the Padre Double-A affiliate. Wolf had an outstanding 29.3% strikeout rate and a walk rate of just 6.3%. His 1.22 HR/9 rate was slightly worse than the league average, but with a 12.5% HR/FB ratio, he could see that go down in the future.

Wolf then made eight starts for Altoona. The first four were very good. He pitched 18 innings, only allowing five earned runs, striking out 19, walking six, and giving up one home run. Through this point of the season, Wolf had pitched 106.1 innings at Double-A with a 3.81 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP. He was striking out just a shade under 30% of opponents (29.2%) with a 6.6% walk rate and 1.1 HR/9. He had an elite 4.43 K:BB ratio.

But Wolf would have a poor end to the 2023 campaign. His last four starts to 2023 were rough. Throughout his final 18 innings, he allowed 12 earned runs, struck out just 11, and allowed four home runs. He still only walked four batters, which was a positive. Still, it was only four outings and 18 innings. That doesn't eliminate the 105+ frames where he had good numbers.

Wolf doesn't throw very hard, as his four-seam fastball only averaged 88-90 MPH in his MLB debut. But because of its high active spin, it has well above average movement. He also displayed a solid slider and changeup. Of course, it was only one game, but stuff+ loved Wolf's game at 117.

Wolf is already on the 40-man roster and could compete for an Opening Day roster spot. Wolf could even be an option for a starting rotation spot. But with the Pirates having few left-handed options in the bullpen, he could end up as a long reliever/spot starter hybrid to start the year. Wolf turns 25 in late April, too.

Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft, but it was only last year that the right-hander would break out. Ashcraft barely pitched in 2020-2022, missing a good chunk of time because of Tommy John surgery. But Ashcraft had an outstanding 2023 campaign, earned a 40-man roster spot, and will likely make his debut in 2024. But could that be on Opening Day?

Through 52.2 innings, Ashcraft worked to a 2.39 ERA, 2.85 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. Striking out batters and preventing walks were two of his biggest strengths. He had a 29.6% strikeout rate with a walk rate of just 5.2%, leading to a K:BB ratio of 5.73. Ashcraft was also great at preventing home runs with an HR/9 of just 0.68. Over 500 pitchers started at least 15 games and ranked top ten among those pitchers in ERA, FIP, and K:BB ratio.

However, Ashcraft was not used in a typical fashion. Even though he started 19 games, he fell far from reaching even 100 innings. That's because the Pirates were strict with his innings pitched. Given that he only pitched 38.1 innings in 2021, the last time he threw a pitch, and only surpassed 50 innings once in any previous season. That makes his long-term role as a starter or reliever uncertain.

On the plus side, Ashcraft looked as strong as ever. He was hitting the upper-90s with regularity with his fastball, and both his slider and curveball displayed decent movement. His control also looked pretty sharp. He also had the 16th lowest BB% among all minor leaguers with 15+ games started.

Although Ashcraft is on the 40-man roster, he has zero experience above Double-A. I think he has the least likely chance of making the Opening Day roster between him, Wolf, and Nicolas, but there may be some positives of having him skip Triple-A altogether. Triple-A uses the automated strike zone. It might be a lot to ask for a guy to get used to this, then to get used to pitching like he did prior all in one season. Slotting him into the bullpen as a long reliever could be a good idea.