Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Three Unexpected Seasons Thus Far

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have had some prospects get off to strong starts that not many expected them to do

Going into the 2023 season, many expected Pittsburgh Pirates prospects like Henry Davis, Quinn Priester, Thomas Harrington, and others to succeed. Afterall, they are some of the best prospects in the organization. But like in most years, there’s been a handful of unexpected performances from minor leaguers and prospects.

The focus of today will be the surprise performances of the 2023 season thus far in the minor leagues. That's not to say that these players were expected to perform poorly, but they've far exceeded anything anyone expected them to do so far this year.

Mason Martin

If you had Mason Martin as one of the most productive minor league hitters by June on your Pirates' prospects bingo card, you're either lying or took a shot in the dark. Martinhad zero expectations going into the 2023 season. The first baseman limped to a 79 wRC+ in 2022 while striking out over a third of the time (35.9%). Martin’s end to the 2022 season was so poor, the Pirates opted to send him to Altoona instead of giving him more reps at Triple-A, as Malcom Nunez had since overtaken him.

He’s slashing a strong .209/.416/.527, coming out to an OPS well above .900 at .943. Martin has a walk rate of 24.8%, but he still has struck out at a high rate of 28.8%. That is an improvement to when he struck out in over a third of his plate appearances and walk rate below 10% last year. Martin currently holds a .425 wOBA, and 157 wRC+, making him one of Double-A’s most productive batters. Among Double-A hitters with 120+ PAs, Martin ranks top ten in OPS (9th), wOBA (10th), wRC+ (7th), and isolated slugging percentage (4th), while ranking 11th in BB:K ratio (0.86).

Martin, who’s calling card is power, is putting on a phenomenal show of strength at the dish this year. The first baseman has slugged eight home runs in just 125 plate appearances. His isolated slugging percentage is also well into elite territory at .319. Martin is on pace for nearly 40 home runs in 600 plate appearances. He’s also over 40% of the way to his 2022 home run total despite having less than a fourth of the amount of plate appearances.

There’s been no player who has fully embraced the three-true-outcomes strategy than Martin. He’s the only minor leaguer to have a walk rate over 20%, a strikeout rate over 25%, and ISO over .300 in at least 120 PAs. He’s also embraced the flyball-or-bust strategy at the plate, as his 58.2% fly ball rate is a 17.3% uptick from 2022. Martin has changed much of his swing mechanics from last year, holding the bat more upright in his stance, and going for more of a toe-tap than a leg-kick.

Now it’s totally reasonable to still be skeptical of Martin. He’s still striking out a lot, and he’s doing well at a level he already spent a full season at. But there’s never been a question about his ability to obliterate a baseball. Plus while he is repeating Double-A, there are a lot of cases where Double-A has better quality of competition than Triple-A. Martin probably still has the best raw power in the system. The change in approach to the plate is also interesting. Martin has completely sold out for the fly ball, and it seems to be helping him.

J.P. Massey

Typically a seventh round pick who had an ERA over 6.50 and WHIP above 1.70 in college doesn’t have any expectations. J.P. Massey was that college pitcher who was selected in the 7th round while posting some atrocious numbers in his final season. Massey wasn’t a big-time college arm, as the Pirates picked the University of Minnesota right-hander as an underslot draft pick. But his start to the season has definitely been much better than many expected.

Massey owns a 2.62 ERA, 3.60 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP across 34.1 innings. Massey is striking out his fair share of opponents with a 30.3% strikeout rate, and has allowed just two home runs. Massey is a ground ball machine who has a 56.8% ground ball rate. The only blemish on his otherwise outstanding start is his 10.3% walk rate, which isn’t even that terrible.

But these numbers undersell just how good Massey has been recently. Massey has allowed a single earned run over his last five starts and 26 innings. He’s rocking a walk rate just under 10% at 9.4% while striking out a third of opponents. He hasn’t allowed a home run, and the only two long balls he has surrendered have came in just one outing. Heck, only four of the 10 earned runs he has allowed have come during his starts. The other six earned runs have come in bullpen games.

Massey has decent velocity for a starting pitcher, working in the 91-94 MPH range and topping out at 96. He also throws a sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. Massey’s velocity was trending upward in his final college season, which was one of the positives for him despite his poor numbers in his final season.

Massey is likely on the verge of getting a promotion to Greensboro, or maybe even Altoona. He’s in his age-23 season, so he’s plenty old enough to skip one level of the minor leagues entirely. The right-hander’s outstanding start makes him an interesting pitcher to watch for the rest of the season.

Tsung-Che Cheng

Let me explain why Tsung-Che Cheng is here. It’s not unexpected that he’s having a good season. Cheng posted quality numbers in 2022, including an outstanding stretch from June through the end of the year. But there have been some factors in his game that are standing out that you’d be hard pressed to find someone who was expecting him to do this.

That specific thing is hitting for power. Cheng is not known for his power. Even during his hot streak, his ISO only clocked in at .147, which while not terrible, isn’t great either. Cheng, who stands at 5’7”, 155 pounds has never been known to be a power hitter, nor have the raw strength to become one.

But Cheng is batting .288/.396/.554 with a .423 wOBA, and 151 wRC+. Cheng’s 14.9% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate are both improvements from last year. Power wise, he’s slugging just over .550 at .554, with an isolated slugging percentage of .266. Keep in mind, Endy Rodriguez had an ISO of .266 last season. Cheng has six home runs, six triples, and seven doubles so far.

The first thing is his flyball rate is up to 35.2% compared to 28.9% last season. In most cases, hitting more fly balls will lead to more home runs. Now Greensboro is known to be a hitter friendly venue, but his slugging percentage at home is .457 while it clocks in at .652 on the road, an uptick by nearly two-hundred points.

Posting an above average batting average, drawing a lot of walks, and stealing bases are the three primary things fans likely expected Cheng to do. While he's certainly doing all three of those things, hitting for power was definitely not on any Pirate Prospects Bingo cards for this year.

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