Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Three Underrated Breakout Candidates for 2023

The Pittsburgh Pirates had a handful of players break out last year, but who are some prospects who could take a step forward next season?

Last season, Matt Gorski hit the same amount of home runs in 146 plate appearances at Greensboro as he did in 401 plate appearances at Bradenton. Endy Rodriguez increased his wRC+ by 26%. Colin Selby was added to the 40-man roster after looking like nothing more than organizational depth at the end of the 2021 season, and Kyle Nicolas also pieced together a strong season after an up-and-down 2021.

There are always going to be breakout players each and every year, and next year will be no different. With the Pittsburgh Pirates having as deep of a farm system as they do, there are bound to be some prospects who turn a corner and make something of themselves after a mediocre season. Today, let’s take a look at one potential breakout prospect at each level of the minor leagues.

Note that we will be skipping Low-A Bradenton Marauders. You could make the argument that someone like Lonnie White Jr., Bubba Chandler, or Owen Kellington could break out at Bradenton next season, I want to mainly focus on guys who have played full (or mostly full) seasons. I don’t think it’s fair to call, for example, Hung-Leng Chang a breakout candidate after only getting the chance to pitch 22.2 innings at the short-season Florida Complex League.

Altoona Curve - Sean Sullivan

Jared Jones seems like too obvious of a pick as a breakout candidate for Altoona. So instead, let’s go with Sean Sullivan. Sullivan was the Pirates’ 8th-round pick in 2021. His first extended look could have gone better, but there were plenty of positives that he could build upon next season at Altoona.

Sullivan worked to a 4.68 ERA, 5.47 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP in 75 innings at Greensboro. However, he did have a decent 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. The right-hander was one of just nine pitchers in the Pirates’ system with 50+ IP and a K:BB ratio over 3.0. Where Sullivan struggled the most was home runs, having a 1.92 HR/9 rate.

But there is some hope he can improve that next season. Sullivan registered a 3.88 xFIP, which is adjusted for HR/FB ratio. His HR/FB ratio came in at 26.7%, which was the fourth highest rate in minor league baseball last season (min 70 IP). Despite allowing nearly two home runs every nine innings on average, Sullivan had a respectable 41.3% ground ball rate and flyball rate under 30%.

Sullivan typically works in the low-90s, but can hit 95-96 MPH. He also throws a plus slider, though his four-seamer, curveball, and change-up are all average pitches at best. He also displays solid command, and while he is a later-round selection, he is still fairly young. Next year will only be his age-22 campaign. He's making decent progress.

Indianapolis Indians - Carmen Mlodzinski

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted Carmen Mlodzinski with their competitive balance pick in the 2020 draft. The 31st overall selection, Mlodzinski showed a ton of promise in 2021, but his 2022 season had its peaks and valleys. Mlodzinski will start the year at Triple-A Indy next season and could (and should) at least make his major league debut, and if he gets off to a strong start, it could be early into the season.

Mlodzinski pitched a total of 105.1 innings at Altoona. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but a solid 3.77 FIP. Mlodzinski managed a solid FIP because of a 24.1% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate, and 0.78 HR/9. Some bad batted ball luck did affect Mlodzinski’s seasons as he had a .334 batting average on balls in play.

Mlodzinski’s numbers fluctuated a ton this season. In April, he registered a 5.28 ERA/5.24 FIP, and while he had a 5.00 ERA in May, he also had a 3.25 FIP. June was a great month for Mlodzinski given he had a 2.61 ERA and 3.61 FIP. His worst month was July as he had a 7.71 ERA and 4.96 FIP. August was a lot like May as he had a 5.96 ERA, but 3.84 FIP. September was a high note for him with a 2.57 ERA and 1.91 FIP. Needless to say, consistency was not something Mlodzinski had in 2022.

The right-hander typically sits 94-96 MPH with his fastball while mixing in a slider and changeup. All three of his offerings project as above average, per MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs isn’t as bullish on him as they see both his fastball and slider as average pitches and his changeup as a 45-grade offering. His overall command is average as well. He did slightly improve his walk rate from Greensboro to Altoona, going from 9.4% to 8.7%.