Pittsburgh Pirates Prospects: Underrated Player to Watch at Each Level

Low-A Bradenton - RHP Owen Kellington

The 2021 Pirate draft was one that significantly boosted their farm system. They essentially got three first-round talents in Bubba Chandler, Henry Davis, and Anthony Solmeto. Chandler and Solometo, along with Lonnie White Jr. and Braylon Bishop, were four of their five over-slot signings, but one that gets overlooked is Owen Kellington.

Kellington was selected out of Vermont by the Pirates in the fourth round. Kellington is the first alumni from U-32 High School to get drafted by a Major League Baseball team. There have also been just two MLB players born after 1960 from Vermont to play, ironically, one is Chris Duffy, who was a former Pirate draftee back in 2001.

Kellington absolutely mowed down opposing hitters. While Vermont isn’t a hotbed for baseball talent, you can’t help but still be impressed by his insane strikeout numbers in college. Kellington struck 133 batters in 49 innings. That is a K/9 ratio of 24.4, and 90.5% of outs made were strikeouts. 

Kellington only has ten innings under his belt as a member of the Pittsburgh Pirates. He was injured for a good portion of last season, so he didn’t get the extended look he deserves. The right-hander is not a hard-throwing pitcher, as he tops out at just 92 MPH. His high-spin, upper-70s curveball is his best weapon. Kellington’s delivery is slightly unorthodox, and FanGraphs drew comparisons to Ubaldo Jimenez.

2023 will be Kellington’s age-20 season. If he’s healthy, he’ll likely start the year at Bradenton. A healthy season for Kellington could be what he needs to establish himself. The Pittsburgh Pirates signed him to an over-slot deal for a reason, and an extended look from the right-hander is something to keep an eye on.

High-A Greensboro - OF Rodolfo Nolasco

Among the Pirates' most underrated prospects, Rodolfo Nolasco is up there with the most talented. Nolasco has consistently hit throughout the minor leagues. Last season an injury kept him out for a portion of the season. But he could be in for an offensive explosion next season.

Nolasco had just 321 plate appearances for Bradenton. He had a quality .755 OPS, .351 wOBA, and 116 wRC+ with an 11.5% walk rate. But he struck out at a 34% rate. But from June through the end of the season, the outfielder had a .940 OPS, .424 wOBA, and 162 wRC+. Like his season numbers, he had a great 13.8% walk rate but a poor 35.2% strikeout rate.

Nolasco is a powerful outfielder. With 60-projected raw and game power, Nolasco had a .278 ISO from the start of June. He hit nine home runs in just 159 plate appearances, which is a pace of about 34 across 600 plate appearances. 

Nolasco is an average runner at best but likely will slow down as he grows. He also plays a solid corner outfield. He has mostly played right field with a little center and left field sprinkled in. But long term, he’ll likely move to left. He has the arm to play a corner.

The young outfielder will be given a great opportunity at Greensboro. He’ll be thrown into a hitter-friendly environment, and a full season could do him plenty of good. He needs to cut down on the strikeouts, but if he does that, he could make serious prospect gains in 2023.

Double-A Altoona - INF Dariel Lopez

Dariel Lopez had posted some pretty solid numbers in the last two seasons but nothing outstanding. In 2021, he had a 103 wRC+, which isn’t terrible but only slightly above average. But 2022 was a nice breakout campaign for the infielder.

In 420 plate appearances, Lopez batted .286/.326/.476 with a .359 wOBA and 116 wRC+. Lopez smacked 19 home runs with a solid .189 isolated slugging percentage. It was a decent season, but he had poor plate discipline numbers. He walked at just a 5% rate with a strikeout rate of 25.5%. 

Overall, Lopez’s season was good, but he was much better from June through the end of the year. His final 282 plate appearances saw him slash .314/.351/.508. Lopez had a .382 wOBA and 131 wRC+, along with an ISO of .194. But his walk rate was just 3.9%, though he did have a slightly better 23.8% strikeout rate.

Lopez mostly played third base last season but has plenty of experience at both middle infield spots. He has an arm to play on the left side of the infield but mediocre range and overall fielding prowess. He projects as a 45-grade defender, which is why some project him as a first baseman.

Lopez receives a 50 grade for his hit tool but 60 grades for his game power and raw power. There’s a good amount of power potential, a guy who could hit .260-.270 with 25+ home runs. His defining position might end up being first base, but he could still see some time across all the infield positions.

Triple-A Indianapolis - RHP Kyle Nicolas

Triple-A Indianapolis has a ton of very underrated players who will likely start the year there. Overall, Indy’s roster is very deep. I’m sure there are plenty of under-the-radar players you could name at Triple-A, but Kyle Nicolas is the player I want to focus on today.

Nicolas was acquired in the Jacob Stallings trade. A second-round pick by the Miami Marlins in 2020, Nicolas was a talented arm coming out of Ball State but came with apparent risk. Last season he spent the entire season at Double-A Altoona piecing together a quality season.

In 90.2 innings, Nicolas owned a solid 3.97 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. While he had a 12.1% walk rate, he struck out just over a quarter of the batters he faced with a 25.9% strikeout rate. Nicolas had a 0.89 HR/9 rate, which was above the league average rate of 1.15-per-9. Overall, there wasn’t anything terrible (maybe outside of his walk rate), but nothing over-the-top special either.

So what reason is there to take notice of Nicolas? The first is that he has a high ceiling. He’s a hard-throwing right-hander who consistently sits in the mid-to-upper-90s. Along with his smoking four-seamer, he throws an elite slider with an average curveball. There’s certainly some risk, given his curveball is barely average, but if he can develop it just a little more, it could easily make him a starting pitcher.

The other reason is his numbers aren’t fully reflective of his season. On April 23rd, Nicolas allowed eight earned runs in just two innings on nine hits and four home runs. This was just one of three times he allowed more than three earned runs and the only time he let in more than four. If you take this one outing out of his season, you have a pitcher who had a 3.25 ERA, 3.77 FIP, 0.51 HR/9, and 1.22 WHIP in 88.2 innings.

If this one start doesn’t happen, he, no doubt, gets more attention from Pirate fans. He’s a high-ceiling pitcher who could end up in the starting rotation sometime this year. The worst case scenario is the Pirates stick him in the bullpen. Either way, Nicolas is definitely overshadowed by his fellow rotation mates, Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Mike Burrows.