Pittsburgh Pirates: The Best Possible Second Half Line-Up

Catcher - Endy Rodriguez

It's time for Endy Rodriguez to make his Major League debut. I am fairly certain that the Pirates will kick off the second half with Endy making his debut in the series right after the break, which is against the San Francisco Giants. Endy had an ice-cold start to the year, however, he's seemed to figure things out over the last few weeks.

Since June 22nd, the switch-hitter is slashing .348/.429/.500. He's walked (14.3%) more often than he's struck out (10.7%) while hitting for a respectable amount of power. His ISO in this time is .157. Overall, Rodriguez has a strong .411 wOBA, .929 OPS, and 134 wRC+ during this recent hot streak.

Rodriguez's numbers on the season aren't too impressive. He has just a .737 OPS, .333 wOBA, and 85 wRC+. However, he still has a phenomenal 11.2% strikeout rate and a 15.3% strikeout rate. This marks the sixth minor league season in which Rodriguez has a walk rate above 10% and a strikeout rate below 20%. Rodriguez was an outstanding hitter in both 2021-2022 and while this low point is not nearly as encouraging as his wRC+ over 160 in 2022, it could simply be Rodriguez working on something or trying a new mechanic out, as we discussed previously.

Rodriguez isn't the best defensive catcher the Pirates have ever had, but he still projects as above average. His arm is good enough for behind the plate, and he's also versatile. Rodriguez spent time in left field, first base, and even some second base (albeit only last season and none in any other year). That should help him keep his bat in the line-up.

Rodriguez could be a key member of the Pirates' line-up for years to come. His debut has been long awaited, and after his slow start to the year, it finally looks like he's figuring things out. Now is the time to get him to the big leagues, and I bet we will see him in the first homestand after the All-Star Break.

First Base - Carlos Santana/Ji Man Choi

The Pirates entered the year with Carlos Santana and Ji-Man Choi as the first base platoon. However, Choi went down with an Achilles strain in the second week of April, which has caused him to miss almost the entire season up to this point. However, Choi looks to get back into the line-up and will help offset some of Santana's struggles against RHP.

Hiding Santana from RHP will be a blessing for the Pirates. The veteran first baseman is only batting .232/.302/.403 with a 91 wRC+ against righties. He still has a respectable 9.4% walk rate and .171 isolated slugging, but the numbers speak for themselves. However, when facing a left-handed pitcher, Santana is batting .282/.373/.451 with a 126 wRC+. He's walked 11 times with just 11 strikeouts, and his ISO is a solid .169 against southpaws.

Choi is a known threat against right-handers. He is a career .244/.352/.451 slasher against opposite-handed pitching. 58 of his 63 home runs have come against right-handers. While his 24.8% strikeout rate is nothing to be proud of, he's also walked at a staggering 14% rate. Power has been no problem either, with a healthy .204 isolated slugging percentage. If Choi's rehab numbers are an indicator of anything, it's that he's at 100%. The first baseman has ten hits in just 35 plate appearances. Five of those hits have gone for extra bases, including a whopping three home runs, a double, and a triple. He's also drawn five walks to oppose just eight strikeouts.

Santana's defense has been a life-saver at first base for the Bucs this season. He has +7 defensive runs saved and +4 outs above average. Santana already has the most DRS by a Pirates first baseman in the DRS era by four runs saved. His +4 OAA is the second-best in the National League at first base, trailing only Arizona Diamondbacks' slugger Christian Walker. Santana could very well win a Gold Glove this year. Choi is no slouch himself when it comes to first base defense. Last year, Choi had +2 outs above average. This year, he already had +1 DRS and +1 OAA before landing on the IL.

The Santana/Choi platoon could be back in full effect post-ASG break. It really could give the Pirates a threatening first base duo down the line. Choi returning in the second half is a major boost to the line-up. He can help compensate for Santana's deficiencies against RHP, and Santana can cover Choi when there is a southpaw pitching.

Second Base - Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales has so far earned his time at second base. The former first-round pick has been outstanding since reaching the big leagues, showing what made him a former first-round pick. He got off to a rocky start, going 0-for-8 with just one walk and four K's, but he's seemed to find his groove since.

Since those rough first three games, Gonzales has had 12 hits in his last 34 plate appearances. Those ten hits include Gonzales' first two major league home runs, a triple, and three doubles. While Gonzales has just a single walk, he's only struck out five times. He was starting to get hot at Triple-A before his promotion, and while it took a few games, he's seemed to carry that heat over from Indy.

Gonzales was generally considered a solid defensive middle infielder coming up through the minor leagues, and he's held his own so far. I have Gonzales at second base right now, as that's the position he primarily played coming up through the Pirates' system. However, he's split his time at shortstop since reaching the big leagues. Despite taking over a harder position with less than 50 games played as a professional ball player, Gonzales has done pretty well at short too.

Gonzales has done more than enough so far for the Pirates to give him regular playing time. He could also see time at shortstop, but as of right now, I have him at the keystone for a good reason, and that's to make playing time for our next line-up spot.

Shortstop - Jared Triolo

Ke'Bryan Hayes is going to come back, and he's going to take his rightful position at third base. However, rookie Jared Triolo has been good since reaching the big leagues. While not a primary shortstop, Triolo has played a handful of games at the middle infield position throughout his minor league career. He could slide over to shortstop, given the lack of depth and struggles most of the Pirates' middle infielders have gone through recently.

Triolo has just 32 plate appearances in the Major Leagues. But he has collected eight hits in that short amount of time. He's also walked three times, but strikeouts have given him a slight issue. He also has 11 strikeouts on the season, though keep in mind it is a small sample size. He is making good swing decisions, only having a 26.3% chase rate (the league average is 28.4%).

Coming up through the farm system system, Triolo was consistently a highly productive bat who didn't strike out much. He had a strikeout rate below 20% in each of his three minor league seasons, with a wRC+ of 110 or greater (not counting 2023). Triolo started the year out on the injured list and only had 177 plate appearances this minor league season before he was promoted to the Majors.

Triolo did well at Triple-A, slashing .293/.403/.436 with a 116 wRC+. He walked at a high 15.7% rate, though he struck out 27.7% of the time. That's still too small of a sample size to make a definitive claim about his strikeout rate, especially considering his strikeout rate of 18.7% in the 1080 plate appearances prior to 2023.

If Hayes didn't exist, Triolo would easily be the Pirate third baseman. He's an outstanding infield defender who showed off what's probably the best infield glove in the Pirates' system. However, Triolo has seen an increasing amount of time at shortstop over the last two seasons. He is also familiar with second and first base and could even play some outfield if asked to (he played many games in the grass in college and 62.2 innings in center field late last season). However, the left side of the infield is his primary home.

Triolo can give the Pirates a strong defensive duo on the left side. With Gonzales at second base, Santana/Choi at first, and Hayes at third, this could be one of the best defensive middle infields the Pirates have put together in years. It also helps that Triolo has been a very solid hitter, both in the minors and so far in his brief major league time.

Third Base - Ke'Bryan Hayes

Ke'Bryan Hayes will attempt to re-take his throne as the best defensive third baseman in all of baseball once he returns to the field. Hayes has easily surpassed Nolan Arenado for that title this year, and Arenado isn't even his biggest competitor for the Gold Glove this season. Either way, it will be fun to see Hayes back at the hot corner in the second half of this year.

Hayes' hitting numbers aren't all that too dissimilar to his typical output. He’s batted .254/.290/.397 with a .297 wOBA, and 84 wRC+. Hayes is striking out at a career-best 19.8% rate, but his walk rate is strangely low at just 5%. He walked at an above-average rate in 2021-2022, at 8.3%, so this is an uncharacteristically low number for him. However, he has hit for more power, as he's just two long balls shy from matching his 2022 home run total.

However, unlike in previous seasons, the underlying numbers are starting to point in the right direction. Hayes had an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) hovering right around .300 in '21-'22. Now, he's at .315. That might not seem like a large difference, but that's the difference between the league average and about 10% below the league average. Hayes also seemed to find his groove in June prior to his injury, slashing .3367/.337/.518 with a 130 wRC+. Hayes demolished the baseball with a 91.1 MPH exit velo, and a 10.7-degree launch angle, a massive improvement from 5.2 degrees last year.

Of course, you can't talk about Hayes without talking about his defense. Hayes has +10 defensive runs saved, which is just three runs short of Colorado Rockies' third baseman Ryan McMahon for the lead at his position. He also has +9 outs above average, again just one short of McMahon for first place. Still, Hayes has been nothing short of astounding with his glove work at third base.

Left Field - Bryan Reynolds

Bryan Reynolds hasn't been up to his lofty standards this year, but that doesn't mean he's been a bad hitter. If anything, he's been just as good as normal, with some bad luck affecting his overall performance. Reynolds could have an explosive second half, especially after coming off his IL stint.

Reynolds is batting .273/.345/.465 on the season. He's posting a healthy 9.6% walk rate as well as a strikeout rate of just 18.5%. Reynolds hasn't hit for as much power as in the past but still has a solid .193 isolated slugging percentage and eight home runs. Overall, he has a .349 wOBA and 118 wRC+, but underlying metrics suggest he's playing down right now.

The switch-hitter has a .381 xwOBA, as well as a .292 expected batting average and .516 expected slugging percentage. Reynolds' 92.1 MPH exit velocity is by far the best of his career and in the 88th percentile. His hard-hit rate of 51.4% is in the 91st percentile and another career best. In terms of barrel rate, 13.3% is also well above any previous single-season high and in the 85th percentile. He's also chasing outside the zone far less often.

Reynolds has mostly manned left field after being the Pirates' primary center fielder for the last two years. His defense on the left looks significantly better, and the numbers support that claim. Reynolds has +4 defensive runs saved, a +4.0 UZR/150, and zero outs above average in left. He's typically graded out much better in the outfield corners and could be a Gold Glove finalist this year.

Reynolds has a great chance to heat up in the second half. He's hitting the ball harder than ever, making more quality contact than ever before, and is sporting well above-average plate discipline numbers. It wouldn't be a shock for Reynolds to return to his 2021 peak down the stretch.

Center Field - Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski has had his ups and downs this year. But overall, he's been an outstanding hitter. Suwinski's 2023 breakout campaign has been fun to watch, and he's delivered a ton of power, which is something the Pirates desperately needed once Oneil Cruz went down with his ankle injury.

Suwinski has a .235/.365/.522 triple-slash this year. All three numbers are massive improvements from his .202/.298/.411 slash from his rookie campaign. Suwinski has an outstanding 16.0% walk rate, though strikeouts have still been an issue. His 30.7% strikeout rate is pretty much identical to 2022. Overall, he has a .379 wOBA and 138 wRC+.

Suwinski can attribute his success to much better plate discipline and a much higher rate of making quality contact. The left-handed power-hitting outfielder has an 18.1% barrel rate, which is one of the highest in baseball and in the 91st percentile. His 91.9 MPH exit velocity is up 3.6 MPH from last year, and his 50% hard-hit rate is a near 10% increase. However, the biggest improvement is his chase rate going from 24.5% (75th percentile) to just 16% (99th percentile).

Suwinski's outfield defense has graded out around average, with -2 DRS but +1 outs above average. He's seen a couple of outings in both left and right field this year. However, up the middle has been his primary position this year.

Suwinski has been one of the best-hitting center fielders in baseball. Among players who have spent at least 50% of their time in CF, Suwinski ranks top three in multiple offensive statistics, including wOBA (2nd), OPS (2nd), wRC (3rd), isolated slugging (2nd), OPS (3rd), slugging percentage (2nd), and walk rate (1st). Along with solid defensive work in the center, Suwinski is on pace for a near +5 fWAR season.

Right Field - Henry Davis

Henry Davis has been a joy to watch this year. Not only has he hit well since his arrival, but he's been an extremely fun hype man this team desperately needed during one of its lowest points. The former first-overall pick looks as good as advertised through his first handful of games.

Davis has 15 hits, including two doubles and a home run, through his first 60 plate appearances. This also includes four walks and 17 strikeouts. Davis has yet to hit for as much power as you'd expect for a guy who was considered the best power hitter of his draft class, but it's a small sample size to start with, and Davis showed plenty of power throughout the minor leagues.

Before his Major League promotion, Davis was batting .284/.433/.541 with a .434 wOBA and 162 wRC+ between Altoona and Indianapolis. Davis had an impressive .257 isolated slugging percentage while hitting 11 home runs in less than 250 plate appearances (232, to be exact). Davis' 19.8% strikeout rate was pretty solid, but he counter-balanced that with a great 17.2% walk rate.

Davis is primarily a catcher but hasn't yet squatted down behind the plate as a Major Leaguer. With Endy on the horizon, it's likely Davis will only serve as a backup once Rodriguez arrives. Regardless of how you feel about how the Pirates have utilized Davis in the field so far, he's shown some decent prowess in right field. He's also displayed a cannon of an arm, consistently uncorking 90+ MPH throws. He's also been surprisingly fast. While Davis wasn't considered a slouch when it came to running, he is currently in the 75th percentile of sprint speed, faster than guys who are considered speedy players like Tyler O'Neill, Francisco Lindor, Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Ozzie Albies.

Davis looks like he could be yet another long-term fixture in the Pirates' line-up. It will be extremely fun to see what he can do in the second half of the year. He very well could be one of the best second-half rookies for the 2023 campaign.

Designated Hitter - Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen's return was met with great enthusiasm by most Pirates fans. However, expectations were relatively low for the veteran and former MVP. After coming off what was easily his worst season as a Major Leaguer, Cutch has returned to a mid-late-2010s form of himself, greatly surpassing any expectations that were set prior to the 2023 season.

McCutchen is batting .268/.383/.425 with a .356 wOBA and 123 wRC+ on the season. His OBP is the best rate he has put up since 2015, the last time he made an all-star game for the Pirates. His 19.8% K-rate is also the best since his days with the Pirates, and his 15.1% walk rate is on pace for his best rate ever (unless you count the 16.4% walk rate he put up with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2019 when he only appeared in 59 games).

Although his raw power numbers haven't changed much, his isolated slugging percentage of .159 is well below his career norms. In my opinion, Cutch has been worked around a lot this season. At the end of April, when the Pirates were firing on all cylinders, he had a .222 ISO and a 13% walk rate. Since then, his ISO has dropped to just .125, but his walk rate is up to 16.3%.

Cutch has spent pretty much the entire season as the Pirates' designated hitter. He does have 64.1 innings played in right field, but he hasn't started a game on the grass since April 13th. He might get a few innings in the event of an injury or late-inning blowout game, but as of right now, he's going to man the DH spot in the line-up for the rest of the year.

McCutchen's return has been nothing short of phenomenal. A 124 wRC+ is the best remark he's put up since his last season in Pittsburgh prior to his return. In a season that's had its ups and downs, McCutchen has remained a constant and will look to carry his strong first half into the second half.

Bench Options

Note that I don't see all of these players being part of the Pirates' bench going into the post-all-star break. However, a few of them will be part of the Pirates' bench and make occasional starts.

Tucupita Marcano

Tucupita Marcano, like many Pirate players, has fallen into a slump recently. After a strong start, he's now batting just .235/.285/.386 with an 80 wRC+. But he's displayed much more raw power than last season, and his .312 xwOBA (compared to his .291 wOBA) suggests a rebound for the utility man. He's been phenomenal at second base this year, though his shortstop defense is lacking. Though he hasn't played any outfield this year, he could be an option on occasion there as well.

Josh Palacios

Josh Palacios has been an outstanding minor league Rule 5 find. Palacios' overall numbers are not good, but like many players, he's been stretched thin because of the team's current lack of depth. Palacios could be an outstanding part-timer/pinch-hitter. He has five hits and a walk when he pinch hits and six hits and two walks in late and close situations. It also helps that he's made some highlight-reel plays and is generally well-received by defensive metrics.

Ji Hwan Bae

I think that Ji-Hwan Bae's recent struggles are partly because of him being asked to take on a greater role than he was originally expected to. At one point, Bae was providing the Pirates with a solid bat, hitting .275/.332/.369 with a 91 wRC+ prior to his massive slump. His speed is game-changing, so even while he wasn't providing much power, he made that .332 OBP a deadly weapon. Bae also looked like he was getting more familiar with the outfield. I think that if Bae is only asked to take on a part-time role, he'll figure things out once again.

Rodolfo Castro

Rodolfo Castro is still highly effective against LHP, with a .263 batting average and .909 OPS when he faces a southpaw. His defense at second base also hasn't been terrible. He's been about average with +2 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average. However, he has very clear weaknesses, like his sub-85 wRC+ against right-handed pitching and his -5 DRS/-6 OAA at shortstop. If a left-hander is starting pitcher or a Southpaw coming out of the bullpen, this is a guy you want to put in the game.

Austin Hedges

Look, I know people are tired of seeing Austin Hedges hit, I am too. He's on pace for one of if not the worst hitting season of all time. I'd be lying if I said Hedges and his sub-30 wRC+ weren't infuriating. But in his defense, his glove behind the plate has been the best in the league. Despite basically sharing the position with Jason Delay (who I see getting optioned once Endy is up), Hedges has +7 DRS, second to Giant standout rookie Patrick Bailey. However, his +10.4 framing runs lead the league by a wide margin. Hedges is having a poor season, even for his lowly standard with the bat, but his defense has been valuable to this pitching staff.

Connor Joe

Connor Joe is very similar to Castro, except in the form of an OF/1B. Against right-handed pitching, he's hit a paltry .211/.296/.352 slasher with a 78 wRC+. However, when he faces a left-hander, we're talking about a guy who is hitting .276/.382/.517 with a 145 wRC+. That's the difference between one of the top 15 batters this year (comparable to Corbin Carroll or Matt Olson) and one of the bottom ten hitters ( comparable to Jace Peterson or D.J. LeMahieu). He's also been about an average defensive corner outfielder/first baseman.