Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Acquisition Targets Based On DRC+

Based on the statistic deserved runs created plus, or DRC+, who are some buy-low candidates the Pittsburgh Pirates could go after?

There are many ways to predict a player’s future performance. But one thing that isn’t always the best indicator is past performance. What you see from any rate stat like batting average, OBP, SLG%, wOBA, or more advanced metrics like wRC+ or OPS+ only tell you how good that player did that season. There is no predictive element to any of those stats. Expected numbers on Baseball Savant are one way to look at it, but one of the most advanced predictive measurements is DRC+.

Deserved runs created plus, or DRC+, is a stat created by Baseball Prospectus. It’s their version of OPS+ or wRC+, however it’s much more predictive. OPS+ is solely based on OPS, and wRC+ is solely based on wOBA, and both are adjusted for the league average run environment and park factors. DRC+ is adjusted for league and park factors but takes much more into account than just that alone to try and make a predictive figure. If you want a greater explaination of the statistic, you can visit these two links here and here to learn more on Baseball Prospectus' site, the source of the stat.

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to be active in this year’s trade and markets. They've been off to a slow start, but now is the time to get the ball rolling. But they could definitely find some potential diamonds in the rough or players teams would be willing to sell low on based on DRC+.

Alec Burelson - 135 DRC+

The St. Louis Cardinals have an overabundance of outfield options for 2024. If they look to trade anyone, it’ll probably be an outfielder. One potential Cardinals’ outfielder who could be on the block is Alec Burelson, whose rookie year wasn’t all that great but has some promising underlying numbers.

In 347 plate appearances, Burelson batted just .244/.300/.390 with an 89 wRC+. While the lefty batter only struck out in 13% of his plate appearances, he had a weak 6.6% walk rate, as well as a below-average .146 isolated slugging percentage. With a wRC+ well below 100, why even consider Burelson at all?

Burelson, despite his poor season, had a 135 DRC+. That’s up there with some of the best hitters in baseball, like Yandy Diaz (134), Jose Ramirez (133), and Bryce Harper (137). While that’s not to say that Burelson will be as productive in 2024 as any of that trio was in 2023, there is reason to believe that Burelson could significantly out-perform his 89 wRC+ from last season.

Burleson had an above-average 89.9 MPH exit velocity (60th percentile) and a 41% hard-hit rate (51st percentile). His xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG percentage were also better than average. Baseball Savant compares Burelson’s batted ball profile to five different players, all of which posted an OPS+ of at least 100 (league average) or better. The worst was Alex Verdugo in 2023 at 100, and the best was Adley Rutschman at 128 last season.

Dominic Smith - 113 DRC+

Dominic Smith was a former New York Mets' top prospect, and at one point, it looked like he could be in their long-term plans. From 2019-2020, Smith was a .299/.366/.571 slasher with a .390 wOBA and 156 wRC+ in 396 plate appearances. However, since then, Smith has been a poor hitter and hasn’t been able to come close to replicating these numbers.

Last year with the Washington Nationals, Smith owned a .254/.326/.366 triple-slash. While his batting averag and OBP were about league average, he hit for very little power. His isolated slugging percentage was the 10th lowest rate among all qualified hitters in 2023. His raw power was also poor, ranking below the tenth percentile of exit velocity and hard-hit rate. But on the plus side, he did have an 8% walk rate and a strikeout rate of just 15.5%. The league average is 8.6% and 22.7%.

So why consider Smith? He was about a league average batters against right-handed pitching, owning a .263/.338/.398 line, and 102 wRC+ against opposite-handed pitching. His xwOBA of .322 was significantly higher than his actual wOBA of .306. But Smith owned a DRC+ of 113, which was higher than in either 2019 (102) or 2020 (101), which have thus far been his best seasons at the plate.

Smith also brings some solid defense over at first base. He had +5 defensive runs saved last year, a career-high watermark. But he also was looked upon favorably by outs above average at +1. If Smith can live up to his DRC+, which would make him an above-average hitter, he’d be a solid pick-up, considering he may not even get a major league deal.