Pittsburgh Pirates: Three First Base Options in Free Agency (And One via Trade!)

Donovan Solano

Donovan Solano is a right-handed hitter who spent this past season with the Minnesota Twins, hitting .282/.369/.391 (116 wRC+) in 450 PA, producing a 1.2 fWAR. Solano is a line-drive oriented hitter and has great control of the bat. He played primarily first base for the Twins, but also saw time at second base, third base, and DH while helping the Twins win the AL Central division.

According to Baseball Savant Solano ranked in the 99th percentile of sweet spot percentage, which measures the number of batted balls hit with a launch angle between 8 and 32 degrees, or in other words hit with a good angle such as line drives. While Solano has very little power production his average exit velocity sat around 90 MPH, producing hard contact a lot of the time.

Solano is different from the other players on this list in that he's a right-handed hitter rather than left-handed; however, his splits against righties have been fairly good. In 2023 he produced a 120 wRC+ against left-handed pitching and a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. That would be in improvement for the Pirates on both sides of the ball and make this more than a platoon addition like some of the others in this list.

As mentioned Solano is also capable of playing second base, another area that the Pirates need to address. Second baseman Liover Peguero struggled greatly against right-handed pitching, producing just a 54 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers as opposed to a 114 wRC+ vs lefties. Solano would fill that hole easily and give the Pirates more flexibility in putting together the 26-man roster.

He's likely to get a deal in the neighborhood of 1-year $10M this off-season, but that could be lowered by adding a second year to the contract. It's more expensive than the other options on this list, but is the best option overall.

Mike Ford

Mike Ford is a left-handed hitter who spent this past season with the Seattle Mariners. He hit .228/.323/.475 (123 wRC+) with 16 home runs in 251 plate appearances last season before being non-tendered by the Mariners. He primarily was the DH for the Mariners, seeing only 54 innings there this season, but is capable enough for the position.

Ford has power that the Pirates desperately lack, cracking 16 homers in just 251 PA last season, barreling the ball at a 17.3% rate which would be among the best of qualified hitters. He did his damage all against right-handed pitching and producing a 117 wRC+ against those pitchers. He's fared well against left-handed pitching in his career as well, producing a 147 wRC+ in 108 career PAs.

Ford gives the Pirates both an option at first base and at DH and would be a great platoon partner for Connor Joe at first base. He's one of the more inexpensive bats in this free agent class but one with enough impact power to make the move work out for the Pirates. He should only cost around $3M in free agency.

Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith is the final free agent option I have on this list. He's likely the cheapest fix for this hole and gives the Pirates another platoon partner for Connor Joe at the position. He is also capable of playing in the outfield, which is another area the Pirates are looking to improve this off-season.

Smith hit .254/.326/366 (90 wRC+) in 586 PAs last season for the Washington Nationals as their primary first baseman before being non-tendered this off-season. Smith was a plus defender at the position, worth 5 defensive runs saved (DRS) and a 5.1 ultimate zone rating (UZR) in 1,244.2 innings, the latter half leading qualified first basemen in baseball.

In the everyday first baseman role Smith leads a lot to be desired, only accumulating a 0.1 fWAR over the course of a full season. However, he would be best used in a platoon, like Ford, as he fairs much better against right-handed pitching than left-handed pitching. In 2022 he had a 102 wRC+ against righties in 414 PAs, as opposed to a 63 wRC+ in 172 PAs against lefties.

Compared to other options in the Pirates range in free agency, those numbers against righties would work for the Pirates. For example Carlos Santana had a 95 wRC+ vs righties and Rowdy Tellez had an 83 wRC+. Smith also has more power potential than he displayed last year and in September that began to show as he hit .241/.315/.532 (120 wRC+) with 6 home runs in 89 PAs in the month of September.

Smith is the youngest free agent on this list, his 29th birthday to come after the season has begun. He should be available in a similar range as Ford, around the $3M mark while giving the Pirates more flexibility in the field with his experience as an outfielder. His 15.5% strikeout rate, which ranked in the 88th percentile across baseball, would also would bring a much needed balance of contact to a team that struck out 24% of the time, the 9th most in the majors.

Josh Naylor

We've covered three potential free agents in this article that could fit the Pirates' needs heading into 2024, but that's not the only way the Pirates can address that need this winter. Cleveland has been taking calls on various players this off-season and one of them is their starting first-baseman Josh Naylor.

Naylor has emerged as an impactful hitter in the Guardian's lineup and is reportedly on the market. Last season he hit .308/.354/.489 (128 wRC+) in 495 PA with 17 HR and 31 doubles, producing a 2.5 fWAR as the Guardians' primary first baseman. Naylor gives the Pirates an everyday option to use at first base, DH, or even see time in the outfield. He crushes righties (129 wRC+) as much as he crushes lefties (127 wRC+), giving the Pirates more than just a platoon option.

Naylor is a solid defender at first base, collecting 5 outs above average (OAA), which ranks him the 88th percentile. He struck out just 13.7% of the time, ranking him in the top 94 percentile across baseball which, like Smith, would be a huge gain for this Pirates lineup. If you saw the Guardians play at PNC park this summer then you already know what he can do as he cranked 3 home runs and drove in 9 RBIs in 2 starts.

Naylor is under control for the next 2 seasons, his final years under arbitration. He is estimated to make around $7M in arbitration this year, giving the Pirates a middle-of-the-lineup bat at a rate far below the amount it would take to lock up a similar bat in free agency. It would likely take a trio of prospects to acquire Naylor, who plays with his brother Bo in Cleveland, but the move would more than pay dividends not only this season, but the following season as well.

Conclusion

In evaluating these options, the Pirates should consider not only this season, but the seasons that follow. First base is a huge hole not only at the major league level, but across the minors as well. Attempts to fill this void have seen players stall in their development as they reached the upper minors, forcing the Pirates to be creative in their approach.

Whether they accomplish this through a platoon of Ford or Smith, or by acquiring an everyday bat like Solano, the Pirates must do something to fill the position with quality at-bats across the entire season. Whichever option they go should also still allow the Pirates to be flexible in their lineup crafting, meaning someone who can play multiple positions.

Preferred Option: Josh Naylor

Naylor is beyond the perfect fit for this hole. He gives the Pirates a solid everyday first baseman who can hit both lefties and righties, provide impact power to the middle of the order, and give the Pirates an option to play in right-field or at DH if necessary. He's also entering what would be considered his "peak years" and slowly emerging as one of the better bats in baseball.

If the Pirates would go with a platoon-oriented free agent I would like to see them add Smith over Ford for both the defensive flexibility and the fact that Smith look great in the final month of the season. I would hope, however, that the Pirates are looking for more than just a plug and play bat, rather someone who can help the Pirates now and in the future.

As the Pirates navigate the offseason, addressing the first base position will be crucial to shaping a competitive roster for the 2024 season. Whether through free agency or a trade, the Pirates must not be complacent with what they have internally and instead be proactive in finding a solution.