Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Free Agents To Pursue Based on Winning Percentage Added

The Pittsburgh Pirates should target these three free agents based on the stat winning percentage added

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to reinforce the current roster. They will do this through either free agency or trade. There are plenty of decent free agents out there, but I want to take a look at some underrated players currently looking for teams based on winning percentage added, or WPA for short.

But before we get into today’s players, what exactly is WPA? It’s exactly how it sounds; how much a player contributed to their team’s chances of winning. Why use WPA? It better contextualizes how good a player was in important situations. Looking at numbers with RISP tells half the story. A double with two RISP means the same thing in a game where the scoring team is winning by one run, or seven runs. WPA, however, would obviously say scoring two runs on a hit when the game is close greatly impacts a team’s chance of winning compared to scoring two more runs when you’re already up by seven.

However, do keep in mind a few things with WPA. It is cumulative, so coming through during important situations is one factor, but you also need to be presented with many of said situations to accrue a high WPA. It also is not a predictive measurement. It’s not built to give you an idea, or make an estimate of how good a player will be going forward.

So, based on that, who are some free agents that should be on the Pirates’ radar?

LHP Wade Miley - WPA: +1.98

Veteran Wade Miley is coming off a strong season. While he only pitched 120.1 innings, Miley was a dominant starting pitcher. The southpaw is having somewhat of a second-half career renaissance and even though he’s going into his age-37 season in 2024, he’s definitely a pitcher the Pirates should have on their radar.

Miley pitched to a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His 16.1% strikeout rate is the second lowest K% of his career, though his 7.8% walk rate is about what you’d expect from him. Miley’s 1.2 HR/9 rate is slightly worse than what he had in the five seasons at 0.91, but still right around the league average rate.

The veteran is best known for his ability to keep the ball on the ground and induce soft contact. He was in the 83rd percentile of exit velocity, and the 93rd percentile of hard hit rate. His 46.3% ground ball rate was the 26th highest rate among pitchers who threw at least 120 frames last season. However, Miley fed off the Brewers’ strong defense with a .234 batting average on balls in play.

Because of that, underlying estimations weren’t all that kind to Miley’s performance. He had a 4.69 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 5.04 SIERA, and 117 DRA- compared to a 72 ERA-. Miley has been a consistent over-performer, however. His ERA from 2018-2022 was 3.50, but he owned a 4.33 xFIP, and 4.67 SIERA. That doesn’t mean completely ignore the numbers he posted last year, as they were some of the worst of his career, but it’s far from the first time he ever over performed.

But Miley had a whopping +1.98 WPA. Here is a brief list of players who had a lower WPA than Wade Miley did in 2023: Shohei Ohtani (pitching only), Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, Justin Verlander, Jordan Montgomery, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez. His +1.98 WPA was the 18th best among pitchers with at least 120 innings last season. I think a lot of people forget just how dominant Miley was last season. He had a better ERA than both Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta last season. Since WPA is cumulative, that’s really, really good. He was able to post that high of a WPA in 2023 in less than 130 innings.

Sure, past ERA has less of a correlation to future ERA than stats designed to predict future ERA, but Miley has been a consistently above average pitcher now for over five seasons. I’m not saying the Pirates should sign him to a long term deal, but if he’s their no. 4 starter to open 2024, I’d be totally fine with that.

Corner Infielder Jeimer Candelario - WPA: +2.1

A lot of fans want the Pirates to go after Rhys Hoskins to cover first base. While I’d welcome Hoskins with open arms, here’s a fact about Jeimer Candelario, another first base capable player on the market: Candelario’s WPA of +2.1 in 2023 would have been the single best total in any of Hoskins’ seasons in the big leagues.

Candelario rebounded after a rough 2022 season to hit .251/.336/.471 with a .346 wOBA, and 117 wRC+. The corner infielder had the 28th highest isolated slugging percentage in the league last year at .220. That surpasses Cody Bellinger, Julio Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, and Francisco Lindor. On top of that, he also had an above average 9% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate.

His third base defense was fine with -5 DRS, but +2 OAA. Candelario has mostly played third throughout his career, but has 663.2 innings at first base. He also spent the later half of the 2023 season at both infield corners for the Chicago Cubs. Like his third base defense, he can definitely handle the positon with +2 DRS and -2 OAA throughout his career.

Jose Ramirez led all third basemen in WPA. But Candelario was second. He was one of just 34 batters last year to provide at least +2 WPA in 300+ plate appearances. He contributed more to his team’s chances of winning more than Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Isaac Parades, just to name some of the best 3Bs in the game.

The only thing I’d be concerned about is his underlying metrics. Candelario only had a .319 xwOBA, .405 xSLG percentage, and was below average in exit velocity, hard hit rate, and hard hit rate. While Candelario has never had massive raw power, his expected numbers are low, at least for him. Of course, he could outperform them, or rebound next season. Afterall, he had a .356 xwOBA for two straight seasons in 2020-2021. Still, it is something to keep in the back of your head.