Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Free Agents To Pursue Based on Winning Percentage Added

The Pittsburgh Pirates should target these three free agents based on the stat winning percentage added

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to reinforce the current roster. They will do this through either free agency or trade. There are plenty of decent free agents out there, but I want to take a look at some underrated players currently looking for teams based on winning percentage added, or WPA for short.

But before we get into today’s players, what exactly is WPA? It’s exactly how it sounds; how much a player contributed to their team’s chances of winning. Why use WPA? It better contextualizes how good a player was in important situations. Looking at numbers with RISP tells half the story. A double with two RISP means the same thing in a game where the scoring team is winning by one run, or seven runs. WPA, however, would obviously say scoring two runs on a hit when the game is close greatly impacts a team’s chance of winning compared to scoring two more runs when you’re already up by seven.

However, do keep in mind a few things with WPA. It is cumulative, so coming through during important situations is one factor, but you also need to be presented with many of said situations to accrue a high WPA. It also is not a predictive measurement. It’s not built to give you an idea, or make an estimate of how good a player will be going forward.

So, based on that, who are some free agents that should be on the Pirates’ radar?

Utility Man Adam Frazier - WPA: +1.28

The Pirates traded Adam Frazier back at the 2021 trade deadline. Since then, it’s been a rough go of things for the former all-star. However, his versatility still makes him useful, and if his bat can show even some resemblance of his early days with the Pirates, he could be a useful utility man.

Frazier batted just .240/.300/.396, but hit a career high 13 home runs. Frazier has always avoided strikeouts like the plague, and had just a 14.9% strikeout rate. However, he’s never been able to capitalize on a high walk rate and drew a free pass just 7% of the time last year. Overall, Frazier finished the year with a 93 wRC+.

Frazier was a Gold Glove finalist a few times for the Pirates, but his defense at second base has waned. Last season, he had -4 defensive runs saved and -15 outs above average. It was by far the worst season of his career at the keystone. He did play 64 innings in the outfield and had +3 DRS, which was a positive, even if he played it sparingly.

But Frazier had a WPA of +1.28, the fourth highest among primary second basemen last season. The only ones who provided a higher WPA were Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, and Ketel Marte. He improved the Orioles chances of winning more than Marcus Semien did in the regular season, who had a 0.94 WPA. A lot of that comes from Frazier coming through in crucial situations in 2023 multiple times. In high-leverage, Frazier batted .286/.349/.481 with three home runs in 90 plate appearances.

While I don’t believe the Pirates should bring back Frazier with the intent of giving him the starting role at second base, he can still play the outfield to an above average degree, and if he can at least rebound to an average level defensively at second base, he’ll be a fine utility man for next season.

LHP Wade Miley - WPA: +1.98

Veteran Wade Miley is coming off a strong season. While he only pitched 120.1 innings, Miley was a dominant starting pitcher. The southpaw is having somewhat of a second-half career renaissance and even though he’s going into his age-37 season in 2024, he’s definitely a pitcher the Pirates should have on their radar.

Miley pitched to a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. His 16.1% strikeout rate is the second lowest K% of his career, though his 7.8% walk rate is about what you’d expect from him. Miley’s 1.2 HR/9 rate is slightly worse than what he had in the five seasons at 0.91, but still right around the league average rate.

The veteran is best known for his ability to keep the ball on the ground and induce soft contact. He was in the 83rd percentile of exit velocity, and the 93rd percentile of hard hit rate. His 46.3% ground ball rate was the 26th highest rate among pitchers who threw at least 120 frames last season. However, Miley fed off the Brewers’ strong defense with a .234 batting average on balls in play.

Because of that, underlying estimations weren’t all that kind to Miley’s performance. He had a 4.69 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 5.04 SIERA, and 117 DRA- compared to a 72 ERA-. Miley has been a consistent over-performer, however. His ERA from 2018-2022 was 3.50, but he owned a 4.33 xFIP, and 4.67 SIERA. That doesn’t mean completely ignore the numbers he posted last year, as they were some of the worst of his career, but it’s far from the first time he ever over performed.

But Miley had a whopping +1.98 WPA. Here is a brief list of players who had a lower WPA than Wade Miley did in 2023: Shohei Ohtani (pitching only), Spencer Strider, Zack Wheeler, Justin Verlander, Jordan Montgomery, Corbin Burnes, Luis Castillo, Pablo Lopez. His +1.98 WPA was the 18th best among pitchers with at least 120 innings last season. I think a lot of people forget just how dominant Miley was last season. He had a better ERA than both Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta last season. Since WPA is cumulative, that’s really, really good. He was able to post that high of a WPA in 2023 in less than 130 innings.

Sure, past ERA has less of a correlation to future ERA than stats designed to predict future ERA, but Miley has been a consistently above average pitcher now for over five seasons. I’m not saying the Pirates should sign him to a long term deal, but if he’s their no. 4 starter to open 2024, I’d be totally fine with that.