Pittsburgh Pirates: Three High-Floor/Low-Ceiling Prospects in the Rule 5 Draft

Kristian Robinson

Kristian Robinson was a consensus top 100 prospect in both 2020 and 2021 after his outstanding 2019 season. But Robinson would not play for three straight years. In 2020, Robinson was arrested for assaulting a police officer, which prevented him from getting a work visa from the Bahamas. But Robinson made it back to the US this past season, and picked up right where he left off.

Robinson came to the plate 272 times, batting .283/.382/.532 with a .411 wOBA, and 140 wRC+. The outfielder racked up 14 home runs in less than 300 plate appearances. All told, he had an isolated slugging percentage of .249. Robinson drew walks at a 10.7% pace and used his ability to reach base at a high rate to steal a handful of bags, swiping 23 bases in 30 attempts.

Robinson is fast, and can play center field, but his arm and fielding prowess may play better in a corner. Even if he ends up in left or right field, he still projects as an above average to plus defender. But aside from his off-field issues, the major risk that Robinson presents is his hit tool. Last season, Robinson struck out at a 31.6% rate, significantly higher than his 26.5% strikeout rate in 2019.

Robinson has five-tool potential if he can cut down on the strikeouts. We’re looking at someone who could be a 30/30 threat with good defense in right field. Robinson has barely played at Double-A yet, and the Diamondbacks opted to leave him off their 40-man roster. Robinson definitely has one of the highest ceilings among the position player prospects, but also has a low floor.