Pittsburgh Pirates: Three High-Floor/Low-Ceiling Prospects in the Rule 5 Draft

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The Pittsburgh Pirates could keep these high-floor/low-ceiling prospects in mind during the Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft is a low-risk process. The only thing sacrificed by selecting a player is a roster spot and $100,000 from whichever team you took the player from. On top of that, most fans won’t knock a GM if a Rule 5 pick doesn’t pan out. For starters, rarely ever does a Rule 5 pick become a productive MLB player. Second, not even all 30 teams take a player.

With that being said, the Pittsburgh Pirates should consider taking a low-floor/high-ceiling player. With so little to lose, why not consider taking the guy who has great stuff but poor command, or the batter who has 30+ homer potential, but has trouble keeping the strikeouts down? The Pirates have the eighth pick in this year’s Rule 5 draft, and here are some risky prospects to consider.

Kristian Robinson

Kristian Robinson was a consensus top 100 prospect in both 2020 and 2021 after his outstanding 2019 season. But Robinson would not play for three straight years. In 2020, Robinson was arrested for assaulting a police officer, which prevented him from getting a work visa from the Bahamas. But Robinson made it back to the US this past season, and picked up right where he left off.

Robinson came to the plate 272 times, batting .283/.382/.532 with a .411 wOBA, and 140 wRC+. The outfielder racked up 14 home runs in less than 300 plate appearances. All told, he had an isolated slugging percentage of .249. Robinson drew walks at a 10.7% pace and used his ability to reach base at a high rate to steal a handful of bags, swiping 23 bases in 30 attempts.

Robinson is fast, and can play center field, but his arm and fielding prowess may play better in a corner. Even if he ends up in left or right field, he still projects as an above average to plus defender. But aside from his off-field issues, the major risk that Robinson presents is his hit tool. Last season, Robinson struck out at a 31.6% rate, significantly higher than his 26.5% strikeout rate in 2019.

Robinson has five-tool potential if he can cut down on the strikeouts. We’re looking at someone who could be a 30/30 threat with good defense in right field. Robinson has barely played at Double-A yet, and the Diamondbacks opted to leave him off their 40-man roster. Robinson definitely has one of the highest ceilings among the position player prospects, but also has a low floor.

Asa Lacy

If you want to take the high-floor/low-ceiling approach to the extreme, look no further than Kansas City Royals’ former first round pick Asa Lacy. The Royals took Lacy with the fourth overall pick in the 2020 draft. Lacy is the highest drafted Rule 5 pick since 2016. While it’s far from certain that Lacy will ever figure it out, there’s a ton of potential in his left arm, and it would be a crime to leave him off a list like this.

Lacy’s major league career has not gone as planned. He has only pitched 80 innings since 2021, working to 7.09 ERA, 6.17 FIP, and 1.71 WHIP. Control has been the biggest detriment to Lacy’s career. He has dished out a walk to 21.3% of the batters he has faced. While he has a 29.3% strikeout rate and respectable 0.90 HR/9, his inability to prevent walks has been his downfall thus far.

The right-hander missed all of the 2023 season due to injuries, but when he last pitched, his stuff looked great. The southpaw was throwing mid-90s with a great slider. He wasn’t locating either very well, but on the occasions he hit his spots, you could see the reason why the Royals took him so high in the draft.

Lacy probably has the most separation between his floor and ceiling of any Rule 5 eligible player in this year’s draft. If he ever comes close to reaching the potential he has, he could be a dominant force out of a bullpen. But there are also dozens of minor league pitchers every year who have great stuff, but never figure it out.

Cole Wilcox

Cole Wilcox looked like a steal from the San Diego Padres a few years ago. Taken in the third round of the 2020 draft, Wilcox was a college right-hander out of the University of Georgia. But Wilcox would never throw a pitch in the Padres’ system. That off-season, he was included in a package deal to acquire left-handed starter Blake Snell.

Many thought the Blake Snell trade looked like another heist by the Rays in the first year of the trade, and Wilcox was a major reason for that. In 44.1 innings for the Rays’ single-A affiliate, the right-hander had worked to a 2.03 ERA, 2.40 FIP, and 0.86 WHIP. Wilcox’s peripherals were off the charts. He had a walk rate of just 2.9%, a ground ball rate over 60% at 61.1%, and a strikeout rate just a shade below 30% at 29.9%. He had a strikeout to walk ratio over 10, clocking in at 10.4.

But Wilcox’s season was cut short in late-June. He would sit on the IL until mid-September when he underwent Tommy John surgery. Wilcox recovered extremely quickly, as he would be back on the mound in August of 2022. He would only pitch 16 innings in ‘22, but struck out 24 batters, only allowing four to reach via free pass, and just one home run.

Wilcox spent the 2023 season at the Rays’ Double-A affiliate, but after a handful of strong outings to start his career, the 2023 season wouldn’t be nearly as kind to him. He pitched 106.2 innings, but had just a 5.23 ERA, 4.92 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. Wilcox did not strike out very many batters with a 21.8% strikeout rate and his walk rate rose to 9.8%. Although he was still great at limiting flyballs with a 54% ground ball rate, he still only managed to post a 1.18 HR/9.

Wilcox sat low-90s with his fastball, but his upper-80s slider and mid-80s change-up looked sharp. You may see a slight uptick in velocity if he comes out of the bullpen. Wilcox’s delivery has a lot of moving parts, which has led to some questions about his long term command. Wilcox is still only 24, and turns 25 in mid-July.

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