Pittsburgh Pirates: Three More Underlying Numbers to Focus on in 2023

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have a handful of players who could make improvements next season if they take advantage of these underlying stats.

What the back of a baseball card says about a player barely scratches the surface of how productive or how good a player is or can be. There are many ways to analyze a player and how they could perform in the future. With the Pittsburgh Pirates having so many young players, their future looks like it could be extremely bright.

But they have plenty of players with good underlying numbers that could greatly improve next season. At the start of December, we took a look at three underlying statistics that could help three Pirates players going into next season. There are plenty of more prominent underlying statistics worth looking at, and that's what we're here today to look at.

Colin Holderman: Two Pitches With Sub-.200 wOBA

Colin Holderman was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline. A former ninth-round draft pick, Holderman developed his way through the New York Mets' system, running into some injury setbacks, but has made leaps and strides the last two seasons. Holderman made his debut last season and displayed two very quality offerings.

The first was his slider, which he used over 40% of the time (40.7%, to be exact). Holderman threw this offering in the mid-to-high-80s and was very effective with it last season. Batters couldn't touch the pitch, having a whopping 41.5% whiff rate and a 47.5% strikeout rate against the offering. In the few times they did make contact, it was rarely a hard-hit ball, as Holderman owned a 23.5% hard-hit rate. Between his ability to miss bats and induce weak contact, the pitch resulted in a wOBA (weighted on-base average) of just .160. For reference, Holderman's former teammate and top-of-the-line closing pitcher, Edwin Diaz, had a .154 wOBA with his slider. Batters also managed a higher hard-hit rate vs. Jacob deGrom when he threw his slider last year.

Believe it or not, but this wasn't his most effective offering. That title would belong to his cutter. Holderman throws his cutter in the low-90s, but it's a devastating pitch. He only used it 7.6% of the time, but batters didn't manage a single hit against it. Holderman had a -6.1 RV/100 and limited opponents to a mere .140 wOBA with the pitch.

Holderman's sinker gave him some trouble last year, even though he throws it in the upper-90s, so a move to his cutter as a primary weapon might be in store for Holderman next season. Two offerings that did that much damage are impressive. Holderman could end up being a surprise rookie for the Bucs next season.

Rich Hill: 67.7 Inches Of Drop With Curveball

Rich Hill is the oldest player in Major League Baseball. 2023 will be his age-43 campaign. However, even though he's older, he's still been an effective starting pitcher. Last year, he had a 4.27 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. Overall, he was about a league-average arm while throwing below 90 MPH. Hill has always been a soft-tosser and has mostly relied on his curveball, a pitch that still has some of the most movement in baseball.

Last year, Hill's curveball had a whopping 67.7 inches of drop. This was the 5th most among pitchers last season. It also has decent horizontal movement with 17.8 inches of break. That's the third most horizontal movement in the league.

Rich Hill rode his curveball, using it 36.5% of the time. It was the 20th most-used curveball last year. Opponents also managed a mediocre .306 wOBA against his pitch, leading to a -2 run value. While Hill doesn't get many strikeouts with the pitch, he induces soft contact fairly often. Opponents managed just a 30% hard-hit rate against the offering.

Jack Suwinski: 122 wRC+ Against Right-Handed Pitching

Jack Suwinski ended up providing the Pirates with a decent rookie season. He was a solid hitter at the plate, delivering around league-average numbers that included a .709 OPS, .311 wOBA, and 100 wRC+ while also providing quality outfield defense at all three spots. But one area he excelled at was hitting right-handed pitching.

Suwinski posted a strong .237/.330/.465 batting line against opposite-handed pitching. Although he had a poor 29.9% strikeout rate, he drew walks at an 11.5% pace. Suwinski hit 14 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitching as well, leading to a .228 isolated slugging percentage. Overall, his ability to hit right-handers came to a .344 wOBA and 122 wRC+ in 261 plate appearances.

Suwinski only ranked 63rd in wRC+ among batters with at least 250 plate appearances vs. RHP but was still better than Trea Turner, Xander Bogarets, and Corey Seager. But Suwinski only managed a 47 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Sure, he still had a decent 9.9% walk rate and a .163 isolated slugging percentage, but the platoon splits were more than pronounced.

Next. Pittsburgh Pirates: Cal Mitchell a Surprising Breakout Candidate. dark

But with Connor Joe, Suwinski's issues against southpaws can be mitigated to a degree. Suwinski had less than 150 plate appearances against left-handers compared to 261 against right-handers. He'll still receive the bulk of playing time but will be more effective overall. I like to think that Suwinski could be a Joc Pederson 2.0 but with better speed and fielding.

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