Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Moves That Will Pay Dividends In 2024

Acquiring Marco Gonzales

The Pirates' first major move for pitching was acquiring Marco Gonzales from the Atlanta Braves. Gonzales is coming off an injury-shortened season. However, given his track record, he could be exactly what the Pirates need: a durable pitcher who can provide not just a boat load of innings but quality ones at that.

Last season, Gonzales only pitched 50 innings with a 5.22 ERA and 1.46 WHIP but a much better-looking 4.28 FIP. But Gonzales' numbers are inflated by the small sample size of innings pitched. In his third to last game of the season, Gonzales allowed eight earned runs in just one and two-thirds of an inning. Outside of this one outing, his nine other starts saw him pitch to a 3.91 ERA, 3.86 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP.

But Gonzales has a very strong track record. From 2018 through 2022, the veteran Southpaw owned a 3.94 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. His 1.26 HR/9 was about average, and he had a sub-par 17.7% strikeout rate. However, his 5.9% walk rate was the 18th lowest among pitchers with at least 400 innings pitched across these five seasons.

Gonzales had a 96 ERA-, making him slightly better than the league average in run prevention. But he also had the 12th most starts made at 131 and ranked 11th in innings pitched at 765.2 frames. He averaged about 30 starts and 175 innings pitched each 162-game season.

Based on video from Driveline this off-season, Gonzales looks back and ready to contribute to the Pirates. He mostly worked on strength and conditioning, but Driveline is known for pitchers adding velocity at their facility, so maybe he can add a half-tick to his stuff upon his return. Either way, if the Pirates get a 3.80-4.00 ERA from Gonzales with his typical durability, he'll be a lifesaver for a pitching staff that needs an arm that they can rely on.

Acquiring Edward Olivares

The Pirates made a mostly under-the-radar trade when they acquired Edward Olivares from the Kansas City Royals. Olivares is an outfielder that I think could be one of the best trade acquisitions, not just by the Pirates but by most MLB teams from this off-season. Oliveras showed a lot of potential in Kansas City, and it was shocking the Pirates had to give up so little to acquire him.

Olivares batted .263/.317/.452 last season in 385 plate appearances. He had a dozen home runs with a .189 isolated slugging percentage. Olivares had an outstanding 16.6% strikeout rate but only drew a walk in 5.7% of his plate appearances. But many of the underlying numbers point to improvement in 2024.

Olivares had a .340 xwOBA, 11 points higher than his wOBA. His xBA was also nine points better at .272. Expected stats aren't the only numbers that paint Oliveras in a positive light. DRC+, or deserved runs created plus, has him at 117, putting within 1% of the likes of Jorge Soler, Christian Walker, Mike Trout, and Corbin Carroll.

Some have concerns about Olivares' defense, and the numbers support that concern. He had -11 defensive runs saved and -7 outs above average in the outfield despite playing less than 500 innings. But Kauffman is one of the largest ballparks in MLB. It is 330 feet down each line and 410 feet to center field. It is also 385 to both right and left center. PNC Park is 325 and 320 down the left and right field lines and 399 to center. Right-center is only 375, but the deepest part of PNC is deeper than Kauffman's CF, and that's the left-center notch.

Still, the overall dimensions are smaller than Kauffman, which should make it easier for Olivares to field. If Olivares were to improve his defense through playing an easier outfield, it wouldn't be too dissimilar to Connor Joe. Joe had -4 OAA in 2022 after playing 507.1 innings for the Colorado Rockies, whose Coors Field has the most spacious outfield in baseball, even more so than Kauffman's. Last year, however, he had +1 OAA in the grass despite no major changes in his speed or arm strength.

Olivares has the tools to improve his defense as well. He is a plus runner who was in the 83rd percentile of sprint speed last year. His throws averaged 91.4 MPH from the outfield, which was in the 90th percentile. He could be a solid defensive right fielder in PNC next season. If the Pirates sign another outfielder (like Michael A. Taylor), then him and Jack Suwinski platooning in right could give the Pirates some very good production.

I think Olivares could be a 15 home run/.270-hitting threat next season. He has a lot of upside and he is only entering his age-28 season. Olivares' glove and bat will definitely play better in a shallower park. If the Pirates acquire another outfielder so he can platoon with Jack, then he might play even better than that.

Signing Rowdy Tellez

A lot of fans were majorly disappointed by the signing of Rowdy Tellez. Many were expecting maybe a longer-term solution this off-season, and Tellez represents another rebound candidate. But I think many are also sleeping way too hard on Tellez. I think he's going to end up being a steal for the Pirates in 2024.

In 2022, Tellez batted .219/.306/.461 with 35 home runs and a .242 isolated slugging percentage. The first baseman had a quality 20.2% strikeout rate while walking in 10.4% of his plate appearances. Tellez was in the top 80th percentile or better in exit velocity (91.1 MPH), hard-hit rate (46%), and barrel rate (12.9%). All told he had a .327 wOBA and 110 wRC+.

However, there was a lot of hope Tellez could further improve on his season. He had a .349 xwOBA and .252 xBA and was one of the most shifted players in 2022. With the new shift rules, he could potentially get more hits, and for the first two months of 2023, it looked like Tellez was taking advantage of the limited shifts.

After the first day of June, Tellez was batting .244/.330/.500 with a .348 wOBA and 118 wRC+. Tellez may have seen his strikeout rate rise to 25%, but he still managed an 11.7% walk rate. Tellez was collecting more hits in total but was also hitting for more pop. He had a dozen home runs with a .256 ISO through his first 188 plate appearances. Had Tellez kept this pace up until he had the same number of PAs as in 2022, he would have finished the season with 38 homers. Tellez had seen a decrease in his raw power; however, he had just an 88.4 MPH exit velocity, 10.9% barrel rate, and 40.3% hard hit rate. But overall, his bottom line looked great.

That was until he started to suffer from forearm issues. From June 2nd through July 4th, Tellez would step to the plate 100 more times while only having 15 total hits. Only three of the hits went for extra bases, and they were all doubles. Tellez was placed on the IL in early July and was set back once again after injuring his finger while catching flyballs during batting practice. He wouldn't return until late-August, but he was never able to recapture his early season numbers.

Tellez had just a 76 wRC+ after getting activated from the IL, so why do I believe he can be a great pick-up? Tellez seemed to get his raw strength back. Despite his poor wRC+, he still registered a 92.9 MPH exit velocity and a 50% hard-hit rate. While his strikeout and ground ball rate went up, he could have been trying to push things too hard upon his return. Tellez is still on the younger side of baseball, as this will only be his age-29 season. I think the Tellez we saw in 2022 and in April and May of last year is the real Tellez.