Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Promising Small Sample Size Statistics From The First Week Of The Season

Although the baseball season has just started, the Pittsburgh Pirates have seen some promising underlying stats early on this season

The Pittsburgh Pirates are off to an outstanding start to 2023. Sure, it's early, but you're either lying or miserable if you haven't had any bit of fun yet while watching the Pirates. No player has played enough to make a definitive conclusion about what the future will hold for them, but that doesn't mean there haven't been any promising small sample sizes from the first week of the campaign.

And that's exactly what we'll be looking at here today. Three small sample sizes, but promising ones nonetheless. Specifically, we'll be looking at more under-the-hood metrics. That's not to discount Bryan Reynolds' .448/.469/1.103 triple-slash, but I want to look at some things that could help predict the future of these players a little more.

Dauri Moreta
57% Slider Usage Rate

Many were skeptical of what Dauri Moreta was bringing to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Bucs acquired him in the one-for-one swap for infielder Kevin Newman. Although Moreta had a solid 24.4% K-rate and 8.1% walk rate, the right-handed reliever had both an ERA and FIP above 5.00 and surrendered ten home runs in just 38.1 innings, leading to an HR/9 of 2.35.

Moreta was in drastic need of changing things up heading into 2023, and he has. The right-hander has used his breaking offering, a slider, much more often than in 2022. Currently, he sits at a 57% usage rate, a 33% uptick from last season. Moreta's slider was one of the best in the league in 2022. Opponents owned a horrendous .103 batting average, .207 slugging percentage, and .200 wOBA with a 48.9% whiff rate against it.

Because of his massive increase in slider usage, his fastball's use has significantly dropped, from 53.3% to just 23.3%. While opponents couldn't touch Moreta's slider, his fastball was not good, to say the least. They owned a .278 BA, .582 slugging, and .401 wOBA against it. The difference in terms of wOBA between his fastball and slider in 2022 was about the same as Julio Urias in 2021 (the LA Dodgers' left-handed starting pitcher) and 2022 second baseman Silver Slugger recipient Jose Altuve in 2022.

The increased usage of his slider could also help his fastball play-up, depending on how Moreta mixes up and locates his breaking ball and changeup. So far, he's been handling some really late and close games, so it's nice to see the Pirates potentially finding a decent reliever. That's something the bullpen desperately needs.

Oneil Cruz
55% Chase Contact Rate

When the Pirates promoted Oneil Cruz last season, one of the major issues that presented itself was his strikeouts. While Cruz was never a Tony Gwynn-like batter in the minor leagues, his early career strikeout rates were through the roof and way worse than you could have expected. However, heading down the stretch in 2022, Cruz started to improve his plate discipline, and he has started to show better plate coverage in 2023.

Cruz's chase rate still sits at a below-average 29.9% rate. It's a slight improvement from 2022, but the big number to focus on here is his chase contact rate of 55%. That's an 11.5% uptick from 2022. Sure, he is swinging outside the zone a little more than you'd like to see, but at least when he is swinging, he's making contact. So far, he's only had an 87 MPH exit velocity, but that's just on 21 batted balls. Everyone knows he has the raw power to have an exit velocity above 91 MPH consistently.

Cruz is batting .267/.378/.400 in 37 plate appearances. Impressively, he's walked nearly as often as he has struck out with a 6:88 BB:K ratio. Again, small sample size, but a promising one nonetheless. Don't forget that after Cruz made his late-season adjustments, he was hitting .275/.353/.523 line and 145 wRC+. He also struck out less than 30% of the time in the final month of the year.

Cruz's plate discipline has come a very long way since last season. Not only is it promising to see these changes that will help him out in the long run, but it shows he's a mature hitter who is able to make these adjustments in a short amount of time in the first place. Sometimes it takes rookies years to figure it out, but it's taken Cruz less than a full year before changing things up to where he is able to be a productive batter.