Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Prospects With A Lot To Gain In 2024

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a strong farm system, but these three prospects could gain the most by having a good 2024 season

The Pittsburgh Pirates have a lot of exciting prospects. 2023 was an important year for a lot of prospects. Jared Jones and Anthony Solometo needed to build off the talent they showed in 2022, while Termarr Johnson had a lot to live up to. But the Pirates’ farm is filled with a ton of young talent, much of which has yet to get a chance to prove themselves.

2024 will also be an important year, not just for the Major League Pirates but their minor league squads as well. But today, I want to look at three prospects who have the most to gain with a strong 2024 season. Even though the season is still months away, it’s never too early to talk about potential breakout candidates and ones who will look to take major strides the next season.

Bubba Chandler

Bubba Chandler was the Pirates’ third-round pick in 2021. Despite being taken in the third round, Chandler had first-round talent. Drafted as a two-way player, 2023 was both the first full season of Chandler’s professional career, and the first year he focused solely on pitching. It took Chandler a while to adjust, but by the second half, Chandler found his way and ended the year on an extremely positive note.

Chandler’s season can be split into two stories. The first is the first half of his season. Chandler was having a concerning season when the all-star break rolled around. His first 62.2 innings yielded a 6.79 ERA, 5.51 FIP, and 1.93 WHIP. Chandler allowed home runs at a 1.44-per-9 rate and had a 12.5% walk rate. The only silver lining was his 25.4% strikeout rate. Chandler did suffer from a .421 batting average on balls in play, which is unsustainable, but it wasn’t the sole reason for his struggles. A lower BAbip wouldn’t have made him a sub-4.00 pitcher.

Then came the second half of the year, and the second part of his story. In his last 48.2 innings, Chandler owned a minuscule 1.66 ERA, 3.85 FIP, and 0.82 WHIP. Chandler’s strikeout rate took a slight step forward to 28.2%,  but the massive improvement was his 7.2% walk rate and 0.92 HR/9. While BABIP worked heavily against him in the first half, it worked in his favor in the second half. Chandler had just a .200 BAbip, which is on the lucky side, but he still pitched well nonetheless.

Chandler throws hard and sits 95-97 MPH. His best secondary pitch is a slider that comes in the 88-92 MPH range. Not only does it have velocity, but good movement as well. His curveball has distinct movement from his curveball and is a third above-average pitch. His changeup has a lot of potential. Keith Law labels it as plus-plus. If his stuff all reaches its potential, you're looking at two double-plus offerings and two above-average breaking balls.

The Pirates drafted Chandler as an RHP/SS, and he was known to have great athleticism up the middle. While he’s been able to show some of said athleticism on the mound, he’ll certainly need to further translate it next season. He struggled with command early on and had some trouble getting his delivery down. But if his walk rate in the second half was anything to show, it’s that he started to improve.

Chandler had top 100 prospects status when he was a draft prospect. He was able to start translating the athleticism of a shortstop onto the mound in the second half of last season. While I don’t expect him to continue to post an ERA below 2.00 for all of 2024, I do expect him to at least continue to build off his strong second half, be a good pitcher next year, make more improvements, and show what he can do against upper-level hitters.

Lonnie White Jr.

Lonnie White Jr. is our second 2021 high school draftee. One of the most athletic outfielders of his draft class, White Jr. missed a good portion of 2022, leading to 2023 being the first extended look of White’s career. While he opened the year injured, and there were some blemishes on his final line, White certainly has the potential to be one of the Pirates’ best prospects, given more time to improve.

White Jr. finished the 2023 season batting .276/.400/.476 and hit nine home runs in 276 plate appearances. He was also aggressive on the basepaths, swiping 18 bags in 21 attempts. He also had an outstanding 15.6% walk rate, albeit with a mediocre 27.2% strikeout rate. Despite his strikeouts, White Jr. still had a quality .417 wOBA and 139 wRC+.

White Jr. missed a good portion of the first half of the season, collecting fewer than 100 plate appearances. But the second half of the year saw him stay healthy and hitting .272/.407/.524. White Jr. didn’t just have an OPS over .900 in the second half. He also reached a wOBA over .400 at .431 and a wRC+ just a touch over 150 at 151. He still struck out at a poor 26.4% rate, though it was a small improvement from the first half. He also had a powerful .252 isolated slugging percentage and a 15.9% walk rate.

White Jr. hits for power, has outstanding speed, a great glove that should stick in center field, and a decent arm. If White Jr. shows improvement in his hit tool and strikes out less frequently, he’ll take a major step forward in his prospect stock. Not only is it the one thing holding him back from potentially becoming a five-tool prospect, but it’s the only thing holding back his raw power from taking the next step forward.