Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Relievers Who Could Start The Year In The Majors

The Pittsburgh Pirates could have one of the best bullpens in baseball, but they could round out a top notch bullpen with one of these three arms

The Pittsburgh Pirates have their core bullpen set in place. David Bednar will be closing games with Aroldis Chapman and Colin Holderman setting games up. Carmen Mlodzinski, Darui Moreta, and Ryan Borucki will be delivering the late innings to them. The Pirates definitely have one of the best bullpens in baseball, but these probably won’t be the only relievers at their disposal at the start of the season.

The Pirates will likely carry another relief pitcher up North with them. They have a few options between prospects, players with Major League experience, and minor league signings. So who are the best options, and who is the most likely to get called to the Show on Opening Day?

Jose Hernandez

The Pirates took Jose Hernandez in the Rule 5 draft last off-season, and in the first half of the season, he looked like he could secure a high-leverage spot later in the year. Through his first 27.1 Major League innings, Hernandez had a 2.63 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. Hernandez had an above-average 0.99 HR/9 and 25.7% strikeout rate but clocked in with a walk rate of just 5.5%. Hernandez was great at limiting quality contact with a barrel rate of just 5.7%.

An injury list stint in late June lasted through the all-star break. But once Hernandez returned, he started to struggle badly. His final 23.1 innings of the season yielded a horrendous 7.71 ERA, 5.74 FIP, and 1.76 WHIP. After having such a low walk rate in the first half, he saw that balloon to 14% in the second half. He also gave up a ton of home runs with a 2.31 HR/9. Although his hard-hit rate and exit velocity improved, his barrel rate also went up dramatically to 12.5%. The only silver lining is that he nearly struck out 30% of the batters he faced.

Hernandez’s slider was untouchable last year as batters managed just a .170 BA, .256 SLG%, .216 wOBA, and swung and missed 39.8% of the time he threw it. But his four-seamer got rocked to a .322 average, .729 slugging, and .505 wOBA. That’s nearly an identical batting average, slugging, and wOBA as Barry Bonds had in the 2000s. His change-up was not used very often, but it still got battered when he threw it, as opponents hit it for a .346 AVG, .731 wOBA, and .450 wOBA.

Although the southpaw’s best pitch is his fastball, his four-seamer definitely has the potential to be good. Hernandez averages out in the mid-upper-90s with average carry above-average break. His change-up is a distant third pitch, and there was definitely a reason he used it much less often than his four-seamer.

I think that had the Pirates not signed Chapman, Hernandez would have had a very good shot at making the Opening Day bullpen. But Hernandez probably has a very outside shot unless Borucki or Bailey Falter open the year on the IL. Since Hernandez still has all three of his minor league options remaining, the Pirates will likely send him to Triple-A, at least to start the year. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the first one they call upon in the event of an injury.

Ben Heller

Ben Heller is one of the Pirates’ more talented minor league signings. Heller pitched 18.2 innings last season for the Atlanta Braves. He had some positives in the small sample size, like his 3.86 ERA, 0.96 HR/9, and 49.1% ground ball rate. However, he had a poor 13.4% walk rate with an unimpressive K% of just 19.5%. But his minor league numbers and stuff look a lot better than his MLB numbers.

Heller pitched 53 innings for the Braves and Tampa Bay Rays Triple-A affiliates, working to a 3.06 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. Heller kept up his strong ability to induce ground balls with a 51.4% GB%, leading to an impressive 0.51 HR/9. The control issues that plagued him in the Majors weren’t as prevalent at Triple-A, where he had a 6.4% walk rate and 28.6% strikeout rate. All Triple-A leagues used the automated strike zone, and walks had gone up dramatically across the level, so having such a low walk rate is something to note.

Heller’s sweeper will likely be his key to success. I am not exaggerating when I say it is an unhittable pitch. Last year, Heller used it against 17 different batters. Not a single one got a hit when Heller threw it. When they did swing at the pitch, they missed 78.6% of the time. It’s a small sample size, but no pitcher has ever faced 10+ batters with a pitch and had that high of a whiff rate with their sweeper.

But Heller’s sweeper isn’t the only pitch with potential. His sinker sits in the mid-90s with above-average movement. Heller’s changeup was mostly used only against lefty batters and also displayed an above-average break. Heller’s second most used pitch behind his sinker was his cutter, but while it had slightly below-average movement, it did register a +5 run value.

Heller’s change-up got hit hard last year, so it might benefit him if he dropped the pitch outright and only used his sinker, sweeper, and cutter combo. This trio of pitches all were well above average in terms of run value. I’d be curious to see how Heller could do in a larger sample size. He shouldn’t take away innings from the main core of the bullpen, but I would not mind him in a low-leverage role.

Although I wouldn’t say Heller has a zero percent chance of making the Opening Day roster, I don’t think it’s all that likely either. I would think one of the prospects or Hernandez would take priority over Heller, especially given he would need a 40-man roster spot.