Pittsburgh Pirates: Three Underrated Free Agents Based On Sweet Spot Percentage

The Pittsburgh Pirates should consider these three free agents based on the Statcast measurement sweet spot rate

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to get the ball rolling on acquiring someone. There’s still time left for them to do something, as the off-season has been much slower than the last two years. Even though they’ll probably not get one of the top names available, there are still plenty of very underrated names in the second tier of free agents left on the market. But I want to highlight some of these underrated players based on sweet spot percentage.

Sweet spot percentage is one of the statistics that Statcast created and it is based on launch angle. Baseball Savant defines the sweet spot as anywhere between 8 degrees and 32 degrees. This range is typically seen as the most ideal launch angle. Batted balls in this range produced a batting average of .598 and slugging % of 1.103 (source ). Of course, batters want a higher rate and pitchers want to keep this low. The leader in sweet spot rate for batters was Freddie Freeman at 46.1% and the leader among pitchers was Andre Pallente at 19%. The league average is around 33%.

But some hidden gems are currently free agents among this leaderboard. These are guys the Pirates should have on their radar, at the very least. 

Donovan Solano

Donovan Solano has consistently been a quality hitter since his return to Major League Baseball in 2019. He has batted at least .280 with a wRC+ of 100 or greater every single year. Last season, he had a very under the radar season with the Minnesota Twins and is now a free agent with little fanfare surrounding him.

Through 450 plate appearances, Solano batted .282/.369/.391 with a .338 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. Solano walked at a career high 8.9% rate, though his 22% strikeout rate was the worst of his career. Solano definitely could hit for more power next year if he maintains his batted ball profile from the 2023 season.

Solano was at the 65th percentile or higher in exit velocity (90.2 MPH) and hard-hit rate (43.7%). His expected slugging percentage was significantly higher than his bottom line at .427, a 36 point difference.

But Solano’s 43.1% sweet spot percentage was among the best in baseball. There were only three players with a higher rate than Solano: the aforementioned Freddie Freeman, Marlins’ all-star infielder Luis Arraez, and Brandon Belt. 

Baseball Savant made three very promising comparisons to Solano based on his batted ball rates. The three were Trea Turner (2021), Ty France (2021), and Cedric Mullins (2021). Not only did all three bat at least .290 during the 2021 season, but the least amount of home runs came from Ty France, who still had 18. Mullins and Turner hit 30 and 28, respectively.

Solano is an underappreciated player in baseball. He can play three of the four infield positions, is consistently an average to above-average batter, and has some decent underlying metrics from 2023. He’s the kind of role player that every team needs. With the Pirates still needing some first base depth, I would take Solano on a low-cost deal.

Scott Alexander

Scott Alexander barely pitched in 2021 or 2022. He only logged 32.2 innings, but he pitched well when he did take the mound with a 1.93 ERA in the small sample size. Alexander remained healthy for most of the 2023 season, and while his ERA may make you turn the other way, there’s a lot to like about the lefty reliever heading into 2024.

Alexander pitched 48.1 innings and had a 4.66 ERA and 1.37 WHIP with a 14.9% strikeout rate. But that’s about the only negatives you can draw up about his season. Alexander masterfully prevented hard and quality contact. His 3.4% barrel rate was the 47th best among qualified relievers, which ranks in the top 94th percentile. He is a ground ball machine and has a 60.7% ground ball rate. Alexander’s 24.8% sweet spot rate was the 12th best among pitchers last year.

The 4.66 ERA isn’t backed up by much. For starters, from 2016 through 2022, Alexander had a 2.95 ERA. Past performance isn’t always the best predictor for future performance, so here are some more predictive stats that put Alexander in a favorable light. He also had a 3.26 FIP, 3.78 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA, 94 DRA- (111 ERA-), and 3.61 xERA. Alexander may have had a K% below 15% but also a minuscule 5.3% walk rate. Of course, someone who prevents quality contact and keeps the ball on the ground is going to have a good HR/9, and Scott did at 0.37.

Also, Alexander was used as an opener eight times. This was a role he struggled in. His ERA as an opener was 8.10 in just 6.2 frames. As a reliever, he clocked in at 4.10 in 41.2 innings. Despite his innings as an opener amounting to less than 15% of his total innings, the amount of earned runs he allowed made up nearly a quarter of his total earned runs allowed.

Scott may not be a team’s go-to high-leverage lefty, but he handled himself well in late and close games. He had a +.50 WPA while holding opponents to just a .616 OPS in innings seven through nine. In high leverage, opponents mustered up just a .184 batting average and .488 OPS against Alexander.

The Pirates could use another lefty reliever more than another righty one. Alexander has had even less rumor talk than Middleton, with MLBTR not reporting anything about his free agency or mentioning him since late September. A two-year deal with an AAV of $1.5-2.5 million may even get the job done. That’s a bargain for a lefty who could pitch to a 3.50 ERA.