Pittsburgh Pirates: Top Five Starting Pitcher Trade Targets

The Pittsburgh Pirates need starting pitching, but these five should be at the top of their wish list going into this off-season

The Pittsburgh Pirates need to acquire at least two decent starting pitchers this off-season. As of right now, their starting rotation consists of Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, and a bunch of young, unproven, or back-of-the-rotation type options. It's not an awe-inspiring group. But acquiring two starting pitchers would give the Pirates four decent SPs and leave the final number five rotation spot up to Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, or Quinn Priester (assuming none would be traded).

It would be most efficient if the Pirates signed one of the better starting pitcher free agents and then acquired a starting pitcher via trade. The Pirates have said they'll explore both markets, and we've already looked at five starting pitching options on the free agent market to pursue, but what should be the Pirates' top five trade targets this off-season?

Number Four
Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease was coming off a Cy Young finalist season in 2022. In 184 innings, Cease pitched to a 2.20 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. Cease had a phenomenal 30.1% strikeout rate, as well as a solid 0.78 HR/9. But one of the few blemishes on Cease's 2022 campaign was his 10.4% walk rate. He's never been known as a control freak, and while this was manageable, given how many batters he struck out, it was still below average.

Still, that meant there were a lot of expectations going into 2023, which Cease was unable to deliver upon. Cease still managed to start 33 games and pitched 177 innings, marking the third season in a row he has started 32 or more games, but he only had a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. Cease still had a below-average 10.1% walk rate, but his strikeout rate dipped to 27.3%. His HR/9 also took a step back to 0.97. Cease also saw his exit velocity go from 86.8 MPH in '22 to 90 MPH, as well as his hard-hit rate rise from just 31.2% to 41.5%.

So, what reasons do I believe he could rebound next season? Despite his worse hard-hit rate and exit velocity, he replicated the same exact barrel rate at 6.2%, which was in the 78th percentile. Cease also had one of the worst defensive teams behind him in 2023. The White Sox had -59 defensive runs saved (2nd worst) and -16 outs above average (5th fewest), though their catchers combined for +5 framing runs. The Pirates, meanwhile, had +2 DRS, +2 OAA between all their defenders, and +25.9 framing runs from their catchers. Cease saw his batting average on balls in play go from .283 in 2021-2022 all the way to .330 in 2023.

Cease also looked like he had regained some of his form in September. Through his final 28.2 innings, Cease only allowed nine earned runs and struck out 38. Cease did allow four home runs, but the most promising aspect of this short stretch was he only allowed eight walks. Of course, it is only one month, but still promising that he ended on a high note nonetheless.

Cease also comes with two years of control remaining. I think he has the second-highest ceiling of any of the players we will talk about today, but I had to knock him down a peg because of his so-so 2023. There are some promising aspects about his season moving forward, and Cease would totally be a major grab for the Pirates.

Number Three
Michael Wacha

The Pirates definitely know who Michael Wacha is. The right-hander spent seven seasons of his Major League career with the rival St. Louis Cardinals and faced him twice in the 2013 NLDS. After some middling seasons with the Cards, New York Mets, and Tampa Bay Rays, Wacha is having somewhat of a second-half career resurgence. Over the last two seasons, he has been a very solid starting pitcher for the Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres.

His last 261.2 innings have yielded a 3.27 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. Wacha isn't a big strikeout guy and has just a 21.3% K-rate over the last two years. But he has a quality 6.9% walk rate. His 1.14 HR/9 is also slightly better than the league average in 2023. Even though Wacha has allowed 33 home runs in these two seasons, six of them came in the final two games of 2022. If these two games do not happen, his HR/9 drops to 0.96 in 254.1 innings.

Wacha's first year on the West Coast went pretty well. He pitched 134.1 innings, the most frames he's worked in since 2017, and worked to the tune of a 3.22 ERA, 3.89 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. Wacha's 22.4% strikeout rate was within 1% of the league average, and his 7.8% walk rate was slightly better than average. He only had a 1.0 HR/9 rate, which was another stat he was above average in. A few other positives are that Wacha was above average in exit velocity (88.1 MPH), hard-hit rate (35.5%), and barrel rate (7.3%).

The only knock you could make on Wacha is his sub-par ERA estimations. He had a 4.43 SIERA, 4.47 xFIP, and 105 DRA- (compared to a 78 ERA-). But it was the second season in a row he was able to overperform his expected numbers. In 2022, he had a 3.99 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA, and 103 DRA- (81 ERA-).

Wacha has two years of control remaining. The Padres will likely pick his option up, as $16 million is relatively cheap for a starter who has provided an ERA+ of 127 in each of the last two seasons. Even though the Padres are looking to cut salary, they'll still pick up his option and look to trade him.

Number Two
Griffin Canning

Griffin Canning is coming off a nice rebound season after struggling in 2021 and missing all of 2022. Canning opened his career in 2019-2020, pitching to a 4.36 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP in 146.2 innings. Canning also had a 24.4% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, and 1.35 HR/9. But back issues caused Canning to perform poorly in '21, and the issues lingered into 2022.

Despite pitching less than 100 innings the previous two years, Canning bounced back to the tune of a 4.32 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP. Canning's K% took a step forward to 25.9%, but his walk rate also improved to 6.7%. However, home runs were still an issue for the right-hander. He had a 1.56-per-9 rate, but there are a handful of positives that could help Canning moving forward.

The right-hander was an outstanding post-All-Star break, working to a 3.91 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. He was striking out a ton of batters with a 30.1% K-rate but still had a 6.2% walk rate. Canning was also better at limiting the home run. His 1.19 HR/9 rate was slightly better than the league average.

Canning had some strong peripherals under the hood in the second half as well. He clocked in with a 3.31 SIERA and 3.38 xFIP. The reason there was such a large separation between his ERA and SIERA/xFIP was because of a .346 batting average on balls in play, which was a symptom of the Angels' poor defense.

The Angels may have had +1 defensive run saved, but -20 outs above average, the third lowest mark in baseball. Their catchers also greatly struggled with framing and blocking. They combined for -12 defensive runs saved, -12.3 framing runs, and -3 blocking runs. As we discussed with Cease, the Pirates were a solid defensive team all around and were great at framing pitches.

Canning comes with multiple years of control remaining. He is controlled through arbitration in 2024 and 2025. If Canning continues to pitch the way he did in the second half of the year, he could be a 3.40-3.50 ERA pitcher. Canning has never been given a solid defense to work with, and that's an opportunity the Pirates could give him if they traded for him.

Number One
Patrick Sandoval

I think Patrick Sandoval would be the best possible trade target for the Pirates. The southpaw was one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball going into the 2023 season. In '21-'22, Sandoval pitched to a 3.17 ERA, 3.44 FIP, and 1.29 WHIP. While his 9.6% walk rate wasn't impressive, he had a 24.5% strikeout rate and 0.73 HR/9 through 235.2 innings of work.

But Sandoval failed to repeat his outstanding 2022 campaign. In 144.2 innings, he pitched to just a 4.11 ERA, 4.18 FIP, and 1.51 WHIP. His strikeout rate dipped to 19.3%, while his walk rate rose to 11.3%. On the plus side, his HR/9 rate still remained relatively the same, clocking in at 0.75.

But there are some positives and reasons why Sandoval could rebound. Aside from his strong 2022 season, Sandoval was above average in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, with little change from last season. Sandoval would also benefit from better defense. He played with the same defense that Canning played with, and having an above-average batted ball profile would play better on a solid defensive team than a poor one. Sandoval's left-on-base rate dropped from 76.5% in '21-'22 to 65% this past year, which could normalize in 2023.

Sandoval also didn't lose any velocity from 2022. The one thing that oddly changed was the spin on his pitches. His fastball, slider, sinker, and curveball all lost spin. Meanwhile, his change-up gained spin. He changed some of the spin direction of his pitches. His four-seamer and sinker went from about 86-88% active spin in '21-'22 to 93% active spin. This may have been the culprit to Sandoval's struggles this past year.

Sandoval also has age and contract status on his side. He is controlled through the 2026 season and just turned 27 this month. In my opinion, he has one of the best shots at rebounding; he didn't lose velocity, like Bieber or Cease have, and the main culprit of his diminished stuff could simply be fixed with a change in the way he grips the baseball. Considering he has the most control and is the youngest, I have him as the Pirates' number one trade target.

Honorable Mentions

Alex Cobb

Alex Cobb is coming off a season where he had a 3.87 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 1.32 WHIP in 151.1 innings of work, the most frames he's pitched since 2018. Cobb has continued his late-career resurgence that started with the LA Angels in 2021. Cobb only comes with one year of control remaining, but it is an extremely affordable year. The SF Giants will all but certainly pick up his $10 million option for 2024. But it's not a guarantee that the Giants trade Cobb this off-season.

Kyle Freeland

I know what you're probably saying: how is a guy with an ERA over 5.00 going to help the Pirates? Despite Kyle Freeland's poor ERA, his adjusted ERA+ was league average. So far, 2019 is the only year in his career he's been a below-average pitcher per ERA+. Freeland has massive home/road splits, mainly due to him pitching in Coors Field, where fly balls go further, and fastballs work differently in the high-altitude environment because of the Magnus effect on pitches. Freeland is controlled through 2026 with a 2027 vesting option and is relatively affordable. The only thing is that the Rockies have yet to be too inclined to trade Freeland. If there were more rumors surrounding him, then he'd be in the top five.

Paul Blackburn

Paul Blackburn has slightly below league-average numbers in the last two seasons. He is a soft-contact merchant who was in above the 80th percentile of hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and exit velocity. But Blackburn was burned (no pun intended) by the Oakland Athletics' horrible defense on more than one occasion. He could prove to be a low-cost and underrated acquisition if he gets some decent defense behind him, which the Pirates have.

Jose Quintana

Jose Quintana was one of the Pirates' starters in 2022. He pitched extremely well for them before he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for Johan Oviedo and Malcom Nunez. Quintana was then signed by the NY Mets this off-season on a two-year pact. The veteran lefty missed all of the first half of the year, recovering from rib surgery, but came back after the All-Star Break and was very solid. In 75.2 innings, Quintana had a 3.57 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. But Quintana only has one year of control remaining and is going into his age-35 campaign. Quintana is still a quality starting pitcher, though, with only one year, I'd like to see the Pirates pursue at least one other name if they were to go after Q.

Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera had a strong rookie campaign in 2022 but struggled with command in 2023. While he still posted about a league-average ERA and FIP and was well above average at limiting hard contact, he also walked 15.2% of opponents faced. But Cabrera will only be 26 for most of the 2023 season. The Marlins are looking to add some middle infield help, at least prior to general manager Kim Ng and the organization parting ways, and the two organizations could help each other fill much-needed depth.