Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Batters Benefitting From a High Batting Average on Balls in Play

These two Pittsburgh Pirates hitters have benefitted from a high batting average on balls in play. Does this mean they are due for offensive regression?

Every year in baseball there are hitters who get impacted by batting average on balls in play (BAbip). Some are impacted positively by having a high BAbip leading to better offensive numbers, while others are impacted negatively by having a low BAbip leading to poorer offensive numbers.

For the Pittsburgh Pirates, two players who were promoted to the majors earlier this summer are currently benefitting from high BAbip numbers. Typically, when a hitter has a high BAbip they are due for regression at the plate. However, as we will get into today, that is not always the case.

Jared Triolo

The first of these two hitters is utility infielder Jared Triolo. Triolo came through the minor leagues as a highly touted defensive player, winning multiple minor league Gold Glove Awards at third base. However, the power has never been there for Triolo as he was always a high-contact/on-base hitter in the minors.

Thus far in the majors, the lack of power has once again been an issue. Through his first 127 MLB plate appearances, Triolo has hit for a .270/.331/.287 slash line. He has also struck out in 30.7% of his trips to the plate. The lack of power and high strikeout rate has led to Triolo owning a 74 wRC+ and a 71 OPS+ thus far.

Due to the lack of power the overall offensive numbers from Triolo thus far have not been anything special. Sure, a .331 on-base percentage is slightly above average and on the surface a .270 batting average looks fine. However, Triolo is a fine example of why solely using batting average to judge a hitter is silly.

Triolo only has one extra base hit since being promoted to the majors and that is a double. He has a negative offensive WAR at -4.0.

Triolo's numbers have come on the back of a .403 BAbip. A number that likely is unsustainably high. This indicates that Triolo is due for offensive regression. Once Triolo's BAbip starts to level back out, his offensive numbers could become very poor.

Liover Peguero

The second of these two players is another infielder. That infielder is Liover Peguero. While Peguero has impressed in his brief time in the major leagues this season, he has also benefitted from a high BAbip.

Peguero has 53 plate appearances with the Pirates since joining the club last month. Peguero has hit for a .260/.288/.480 slash line with a 105 wRC+ and a 104 OPS+ since being promoted. He's also hit his first 3 MLB home runs, as well as a pair of doubles.

Peguero's BAbip checks in at .370, which, while likely still unsustainably high, it's not nearly as unsustainable as a BAbip that's over .400. Additionally, it indicates that Peguero should not be due for as much regression as Triolo.

The biggest difference between the two as hitters has been the power. Peguero's .480 slugging, .220 isolated slugging (ISO), and 10% extra base hit rate all dwarf those of Triolo. This has led to Peguero being a positive offensive WAR player this season.

So, whose numbers are more sustainable? Well...