Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Pitcher Bounce Back/Break Outs Vital to Team's 2024 Success

Roansy Contreras

Roansy Contreras had high expectations for 2023. Coming off a quality rookie campaign at just 22, many were hoping he could take that next step forward. Instead, Contreras had a worryingly bad sophomore slump. In 68.1 innings, Contreras had a 6.59 ERA, 5.19 FIP, and 1.57 WHIP. Contreras saw his K% dip below 20% to just 18.5%, while his HR/9 rose from 1.23 to 1.45.

First, let's look at the good. Contreras' breaking stuff was extremely effective. His slider held opposing batters to a .229 batting average, a .356 slugging percentage, and a .278 wOBA. Batters had a whiff rate of 37% against it. Batters hammered his curveball for a .593 slugging percentage, but his xSLG percentage was just .386, and his xwOBA on his curve was .266, giving him two pitches with an expected wOBA below .300. His 42% whiff rate was the 12th best among pitchers who used a curveball in 25+ plate appearances.

Now, let's look at what went wrong. Contreras’ fastball had lost its spark. After consistently working 94-96 MPH and topping out at 98 in 2022, Contreras saw that dip closer to 93-95 MPH and only topped out at 96.5 MPH. Contreras hit 96.5+ MPH 58 times in 2022. Although his overall spin rate didn't change, his active spin dropped 4%. This caused his fastball to gain 2.1 inches of sink and lose about 2.2 inches of break. Contreras, however, still used the pitch like it was the riding fastball he threw in 2022. The difference in his fastball's overall ability was night and day between 2022 and 2023. In 2022, Stuff+ rated his fastball at 106. But in 2022, that dropped to just 90, a massive 16 percentage point fall in fastball quality.

For what it's worth, Contreras is reportedly trending back upward, according to Alex Stumpf, formerly of DK Sports. Many wanted to blame the dip in fastball velo on coaching, but Stumpf reported around the time of Pirate Fest that the velocity loss wasn't from the Pirates coaching instructing him to throw less hard but from other issues, and that progress has been made. If this holds, that could be a major development for Contreras.

Contreras working back into the mid-90s would be a Godsend for the Pirates' rotation. The breaking stuff looked as good as always. His slider had about the same movement as in 2022, and his curveball moved more. If he can regain the velocity and movement of his fastball, he could once again have three quality pitches.

Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz looked great in his brief MLB call-up in September of 2022. Through his first 15.1 MLB innings, Ortiz only allowed two earned runs, struck out 17 (albeit walked seven), and held batters to a minuscule 85.3 MPH exit velocity. Ortiz was another pitcher with high hopes in 2023, but he had a mediocre 4.78 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 1.70 WHIP. Ortiz gave up a lot more hard contact as his exit velo skyrocketed to 92.4 MPH. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate nosedived to just 14.8%.

The first thing everyone points out is the dip in fastball quality. Ortiz lost 2.2 MPH and about 100 RPM off his fastball. He also lost about 4% of active spin. Like Contreras, Ortiz also lost his fastball's spark. It also gained 1.7 inches of drop and lost 2.3 inches of break. Stuff+ had Ortiz's fastball dropping in quality even more than Contreras's, going from 113 to just 93. 113 would sandwich him between Shohei Ohtani (114) and Zack Wheeler (112) in terms of fastball quality. 93 puts him on par with Nick Martinez and just 1% above Lance Lynn.

Like Contreras, many blamed Ortiz's loss in velocity to Pirate coaching. But in the same paragraph, Alex Stumpf mentioned Contreras' loss in velocity, he also mentioned Ortiz. Ortiz also reportedly wasn't directed by Pirates coaching to throw less hard, but other issues caused the loss in velocity, and he was trending back upward.

I think Ortiz just needs to grip it and rip it. Upper-90s are harder to hit than mid-90s, and in Ortiz's case, he needs the velocity. He doesn't need Greg Maddux-like command. He showed that he's good enough to throw the fastball at 98-100 MPH without walking a ton of batters. Let him be our Spencer Strider.