Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Pitchers to Pursue, Two to Avoid in Second Half of the Off-Season

It's the second half of the off-season, but there's still plenty of pitchers for the Pittsburgh Pirates to consider. But if they look into any, they should look into these two arms, but try and avoid these other two.

It's not always about how you start. Sometimes, a strong finish is as good as a strong start. The first half of the Pittsburgh Pirates' off-season was interesting, to say the least. They didn't really get things started until December, when they would get their TV deal under wraps. But there is still a lot of time left in the off-season. The first Spring Training games aren't until the very last week of February.

Both the trade market and free agent market still have a handful of different options the Pirates could go after to improve the roster now. What I want to look at today are two players the Bucs should go after (one free agent and one trade candidate) and one player they should avoid altogether.

Player To Go After In Trade - Edward Cabrera

Edward Cabrera is my top trade target as of right now. The young right-hander has been subject to a handful of different trade rumors. With the Marlins needing a middle infielder, the Pirates having a handful of young middle infielders, and the Pirates also needing a pitcher, the two teams seem like good trade partners, at least on paper.

Cabrera worked to a solid 4.24 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP. He is an effectively wild pitcher. 15.2% of the batters he faced drew ball four. But 27.2% also struck out against him, and he held them to an 87.6 MPH exit velocity, 6.9% barrel rate, and 35% hard-hit rate. All three were well above average, with both his hard-hit rate and exit velocity being in the 75th percentile or better.

Now, you wouldn't be judged for being worried about the walk rate. Since the turn of the millennium, there have only been four instances of a pitcher throwing at least 90 innings with an ERA+ of 100 or greater (average or better) and a walk rate of 15% or higher. But in Cabrera's defense, he does a lot of things right, such as striking out batters and preventing hard contact, he had a much more manageable 11.3% walk rate in 71.2 innings in 2022, and his walk rate at Triple-A was 12%.

Cabrera probably won't be cheap for multiple reasons. He's still young, as next year will only be his age-26 campaign. Cabrera is under control through the 2028 season as well, so he has five more full seasons of control remaining. But if the Pirates went in heavily in on one player, it would be Cabrera.

Player To Avoid In Trade - Dylan Cease

I was totally on the Dylan Cease bandwagon earlier this off-season. But after hearing what the Chicago White Sox rumored to have asked from the Cincinnati Reds, I have since retracted my opinion. According to Jason Williams of the Cincinnati Enquirer and Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, the White Sox wanted some mix of Rhett Loweder, Chase Petty, Edwin Arroyo, and potentially a fifth prospect.

The equivalent of that to the Pirates would have been some mix of Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo, Yordany De Los Santos, Quinn Priester, and a fifth prospect from the Bucs' system. I like Cease and think he will rebound, but there are multiple reasons why I would avoid Cease altogether, aside from this being an utterly insane asking price.

The first reason is that he's coming off a mediocre season. In 177 innings, Cease had a 4.58 ERA, 3.72 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. Cease did have a strong 27.3% strikeout rate, but he had a strikeout rate over 30% in each of 2021 and 2022. His 10.1% walk rate is a tad high but right around his career average. He also had an 0.97 HR/9, which was also better than the league average. The underlying numbers point to better performance, but nothing ace-like. Cease had a 4.07 xFIP and 4.10 SIERA, which is a second reason I'm not 100% sold on giving up that much for Cease.

Even in 2022, his estimators were good but not as good as his 2.20 ERA would suggest. He had a 3.50 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA, and 3.48 DRA. Again, these are good numbers, but suggest that there was definitely some luck playing a hand here.

Another reason is that Cease only has two years of control remaining. It might be frustrating when the Pirates don't trade for a player because of how long/short their contract is, but the amount of control the White Sox are asking for two years of Cease is something I can't overlook.

Dylan Cease is not a bad pitcher, but the White Sox's current asking price would make you think he's a bonafide ace, a consensus top-five pitcher in baseball who is still at least a whole year from arbitration. Now, the White Sox's asking price could go down as the off-season goes on. However, with his recent performance, control, and current price tag, I would not pursue Cease right now.

Player To Avoid In Free Agency - Brad Keller

If the Pirates go for a lower-cost, free agent, that's fine by me, but do not let it be Brad Keller. Keller wouldn't just be going for a lower-cost free agent; it would be scraping below the bottom of the barrel. At that point, it would probably be better to give the last two spots to Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, or Jackson Wolf.

The last three years have not been kind to Keller. He has pitched a combined 318.2 innings, working to a 5.14 ERA, 4.79 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP. The right-hander has struck out just 17.6% of the batters he's faced with a mediocre 11.5% walk rate. His 1.07 HR/9 isn't bad, but keep in mind he has pitched in the spacious Kauffman Stadium for his entire career. That home run rate may increase in a more hitter-friendly environment. He had an 89.6 MPH exit velocity, 42% hard-hit rate, and 8.4% barrel rate in this three-season stretch.

It's not as if he's gotten burned by the Royals and poor defense. He has a 5.01 SIERA and 4.73 xFIP over the last three years. His xERA has been over five and a half in two of the last three years. His lowest DRA- since 2021 was 101, meaning he was still slightly below league average at best.

I get that Keller had a good start to his career and had a 3.50 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP from 2018 through 2020. But 2019 was the last year Keller threw at least 100 innings and had an above-average ERA+. Even then he had a poor 4.90 SIERA and 4.58 xFIP, which isn't significantly better than what he's had the last three seasons.

The most I would give him is a minor league deal. Someone has to fill roster spots at Triple-A and he wouldn't be bad depth. But that's the extent to what I would offer him. Not only wouldn't I want him as a rotation option, but I wouldn't even want him on the 40-man roster. I think the Pirates, at that point, should give the 40-man spot to a prospect like Sean Sullivan if it must come to that.