Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Potential Early Season Trade Candidates to Avoid

Isaiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has a connection to the Pittsburgh Pirates already. He is a twice-removed second cousin to Hall Of Fame outfielder Ralph Kiner. However, that connection doesn't mean that the Pirates should pursue the New York Yankee infielder or give up anything beyond Quad-A-type depth for him. Neither does the Yankees selling low on IKF because of their promotion of top prospect Anthony Volpe means the Pirates should think about the infielder.

Kiner-Falefa is not a great batter. He’s only batted .267/.313/.344 with a .289 wOBA, and 85 wRC+. The only things of value he brings are a roughly league-average OBP, a strikeout rate of just 13.4%, and two consecutive 20+ stolen base seasons. But he only walks 5.2% of the time and hits for zero power. If his average dips below .260, any value he has as a base runner becomes zero.

Kiner-Falefa's .078 isolated slugging percentage the last two seasons is the fourth worst among batters with 800+ plate appearances. He also only has an 85.8 MPH exit velocity and a 29.2% hard-hit rate. But Kiner-Falefa is a shortstop. A league-average OBP with his ability to swipe bases is passable if he can be a force with the glove. But it's a mixed bag for Kiner-Falefa.

Sure, he's had two consecutive seasons with +10 defensive runs saved, but outs above average have painted him in a below-average light each season. Last year, he was in the 17th percentile of OAA and the 8th percentile the year before that. He's posted great numbers at third base, but he's far from a guy you want at the hot corner consistently. His days as a catcher are pretty much over outside of emergency duty (though he'd be a far better emergency option than Josh Van Meter). When IKF did catch, he was a poor defender, allowing eight passed balls in just 586 innings, being worth -16 defensive runs saved and -17.9 framing runs. The only positive of his days as a catcher was his 31% caught stealing rate.

There's not much difference between Kiner-Falefa, Kevin Newman (whom the Pirates traded this past off-season), and Tucupita Marcano. They all fit the low-power, okay batting average/OBP utility role. However, Marcano is at least a decent utility man who can play wherever the Pirates need him to. Sure, the Yankees have experimented with IKF in the outfield, but Marcano is already acquainted with moving between the infield and the outfield.

Keston Hiura

Although the Milwaukee Brewers did designated Keston Hiura for assignment, and he passed through waivers, the Pirates shouldn't get any bright ideas about acquiring another former first-rounder who's looked like a bust so far. Hiura's 2019 also shouldn't fool them either. The prospect capital needed to acquire Hiura, who plays one of the deepest positions in baseball (and not even that well), is not worth it whatsoever.

Hiura's '19 rookie season was fool's gold. In 348 plate appearances, Hiura batted .303/.368/.570. He hit 19 home runs in that span, with a wOBA of .388 and 139 wRC+. Hiura was one of baseball's most productive rookies in 2019. His wRC+ was the 4th best among rookies in '19, only surpassed by Yordan Alvarez, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Pete Alonso. But a peak under the hood showed some worrying signs.

Hiura struck out over 30% of the time (30.7%). While many batters strike out at a high rate anymore, most offset it with a strong walk rate. However, Hiura's 7.2% BB% clocked in at below average. He also had an insanely high .402 batting average on balls in play, the fifth highest from a big-league rookie since 1947 (min. 300 PAs). In the following two years, Hiura suffered from poor play and injury.

Between ‘20-’21, Hiura registered just a .192/.279/.362 with a .280 wOBA, and 72 wRC+. Hiura's strikeouts became increasingly worse, going from 34.6% in '20 to 39.1% in '21. He also walked less frequently in both '20 and '21 compared to '19. The only silver lining was the 17 home runs he hit in just 443 plate appearances.

Things came to a head in 2022 when he batted .226/.316/.449 with a .334 wOBA and 115 wRC+. Hiura hit for decent power with a .222 ISO and upped his walk rate to 8.6%. Those aren't terrible numbers on the surface, but it's fool's gold like his 2019 rookie season. He still had an extremely high BABIP of .355. He also struck out at a 41.7% rate. Even in an era when strikeouts are at an all-time high and are still going up, Hiura's K% is still the second-highest single-season K% ever and the highest since 1900 (min. 250 PAs).

It also doesn't help that Hiura has been a poor defensive infielder throughout all of this. Hiura originally came up as a second baseman but has -16 defensive runs saved and -12 outs above average throughout his major league career at the keystone. The Brewers moved him to first base, where he grades out as a league-average defender (zero DRS and OAA).

It's impossible to buy into Hiura's 2019 or 2022 seasons. Sure, on paper, there are far worse hitters out there, but he's a hitter who solely relies on BABIP luck to work around him striking out around 40% of the time. That's a recipe for disaster and probably doesn't hold up over 500 plate appearances.

If the Pirates need first base depth so badly that they would think about Hiura, they would have plenty of other solutions. Outside of promoting top prospect Malcom Nunez, they could sign Miguel Sano, who is a very comparable batter to Hiura. The Pirates have another extremely comparable batter to Hiura in the form of Mason Martin (who might still have the best raw power among the Bucs' minor leaguers). If they really want to reach far down in the depth chart, I'd rather see Aaron Shackelford or Andres Alvarez at first base before giving up minor league capita for Hiura.