Pittsburgh Pirates: Two Potential San Francisco Giants Trade Targets

The Pirates could add another starting pitcher via the trade market from the Giants.

Sep 3, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Keaton Winn (67) throws
Sep 3, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Keaton Winn (67) throws / Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
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The Pittsburgh Pirates could add another starting pitcher via the trade market from the San Francisco Giants

The Pittsburgh Pirates are still in need of another pitcher. The free agent market still has some solid options, but I believe the Pirates will make their biggest pitching additions via the free agent market. One team that is rumored to be willing to shop some of their pitchers is the San Francisco Giants.

According to Ken Rosenthal, if the Giants make a significant splash in the free agent market, they would be more likely to part with some of their young, MLB-ready, or near-MLB-ready pitchers. There are a few that I want to cover, as I think there definitely is potential for a deal between these two teams.

But there are two pitchers that, if the Giants decide to dangle in free agency, would be good fits for the Pirates’ current starting rotation needs.

Keaton Winn

Keaton Winn was the Giants’ fifth-round pick in 2018. The right-hander steadily worked his way up the Giants’ system and made the Majors last year. After proving himself in a few bullpen outings as a long reliever, Winn was moved to the starting rotation and continued to pitch relatively well.

Winn’s first look in the big leagues had its ups and downs. His 4.68 ERA, 92.4 MPH exit velocity, and 48% hard-hit rate aren’t good. He also only struck out 20.3% of the batters he faced. But there are several reasons why he could be significantly better in 2024.

Winn had a sub-5% walk rate, clocking in at 4.8%. His 1.28 HR/9 was about league average, and a 58% ground ball rate would be among the best pitchers in the league if he kept it up over a whole season. Winn may not have been good at limiting hard-hit batted balls in this short Major League stint, but his 17.2% HR/FB ratio points to some flyball luck. The right-hander had a 3.89 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA, as well as an 89 DRA-, compared to an ERA- of 111.

The reason his surface numbers looked so bad was because of his final game of the year. In 5.1 innings, he allowed six earned six earned runs and three home runs. This game alone shot his ERA up from 3.89, which nearly matches his underlying statistics, to above 4.60. This game would have been drowned out in a larger sample size that isn’t only 42.1 innings.

Winn was one of the best pitchers in the PCL, working to a 4.81 ERA, 4.69 FIP, and 1.59 WHIP through 58 innings of work. Among the pitchers in the PCL with 12+ games started, Winn ranked 13th in ERA but 4th in FIP and first in xFIP at 4.58. Winn had a 25.1% strikeout rate, which ranked 8th, while his 1.09 HR/9 was the 13th best. With a 9.9% walk rate, he was one of only 19 PCL starters with a BB% under 10%.

Keep in mind, this is the PCL, where the league average ERA is 5.70, and batters hit .272/.369/.450, which is about what Andrew McCutchen, Carl Yastrzemski, and Dwight Evans’ career slash lines are. He also had to contend with the automatic ball-strike system, so while his numbers on the surface may not look great, the league-average batter hit like some borderline Hall of Fame players.

The righty throws hard, as his four-seam fastball averages out at 96 MPH. Winn doesn’t throw with a lot of spin, with 2277 RPM on average, but with 94% active spin, he makes the most out of it. His primary pitch is his upper-80s splitter. This pitch was very effective, holding opponents to a wOBA of just .271. His sinker, another mid-90s offering, also held opponents to a sub-.300 wOBA. Winn only threw his slider against right-handed batters, however.

Mason Black

Mason Black is a Pennsylvania native. Born in Scranton, Black attended Lehigh University and was drafted in the third round by the San Francisco Giants. His pro career thus far has been successful, and he is one of the Giants’ top pitching prospects. He pitched well in an extended sample size at Triple-A and could slot into a starting rotation as soon as May next season, if not earlier.

Black split his time nearly evenly between the Giants’ Double-A and Triple-A teams. He opened the year for the Giants’ Double-A team, working to a 3.57 ERA, 3.23 FIP, and 1.05 WHIP through 63 innings of work. Black struck out nearly a third of opponents with a 32.7% strikeout rate and paired that with a quality 8.3% walk rate. The right-handed pitching prospect also clocked in with a respectable 1.00 HR/9 rate.

Black got promoted to Triple-A, where he owned a 3.86 ERA, 5.35 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP. The right-hander fought against the PCL’s harsh pitching environment and won. Black’s 1.34 HR/9 rate and 12% walk rate were about league average. But his 27.9% strikeout rate was 6.1% better than the PCL average. He also had to adjust mid-season to the ABS system, as Double-A did not play with that technology during the game. He pitched nearly the same amount of innings at Triple-A compared to Double-A, logging 60.2 frames.

Black’s arsenal consists of four pitches. The first is his four-seam fastball, which he uses most often. The pitch sits around 93-95 MPH with about average spin, but his low arm slot makes his fastball play up. He also will toss a sinker with slightly less velocity and spin. Black throws both a slider and a sweeper. The sweeper is a low-80s breaking ball with above 2500 RPM. He throws his slider with more speed, sitting in the mid-80s but with less spin, coming in closer to 2400 RPM.

Black is heading into his age-24 campaign, and after the numbers he put up at Triple-A, is definitely deserving of a Major League promotion soon. Black’s stuff will definitely play at a Major League level. Along with a low and deceptive arm slot, he can also command his pitches well. If the Pirates acquired him, he would definitely slot into their rotation now.

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