Pittsburgh Pirates: Which Team Would Make The Best Trade Partner?

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are coming off an 88-74 season, falling just shy of both the American League West and American League Wild Card. They won 88 games on the back of their deep pitching staff, led by the three-headed beast of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and George Kirby. But they have a trio of young starters they might listen to offers regarding.

Of the three, Bryce Miller got the most MLB playing time in. He pitched 131.1 innings across 25 starts, working to a solid 4.32 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 1.14 WHIP. Miller’s 22.3% strikeout rate was just 0.4% worse than the league average, while his 1.23 HR/9 was average on the dot. However, he had a walk rate of just 4.8%. The Mariners seem to specialize in starters with extreme command, as he was one of three M’s pitchers with 20+ games started and a sub-5% walk rate.

Overall, Miller had the 9th lowest BB% among pitchers with 130+ frames tossed. It is also the 6th lowest walk rate among any player in their rookie season over the last decade (min. 100 innings pitched). His low walk rate led to a robust 4.58 K:BB ratio, which also ranked top 15 among pitchers with 130+ innings in 2023.

The next starter is Bryan Woo. He pitched 87 innings last year while owing a 4.21 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP. Woo struck out just over a quarter of the batters he faced at 25.1% with a respectable 8.3% walk rate. His 1.33 HR/9 was slightly below the league average, but he could definitely see that move in the right direction next season. He was above the 80th percentile of both exit velocity (87.4 MPH) and hard-hit rate (33.8%) while having a barrel rate of just 6.3% (top 77th percentile).

Emmerson Hancock is the third and final starter, who is still a prospect. The 2020 first-round pick only pitched 12 big league innings last season, spending most of his season at Double-A. In 98 innings for the M’s Double-A affiliate, Hancock had a 4.32 ERA, 4.08 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP. He got a healthy amount of strikeouts with a 26% strikeout rate while also having an above-league average 9.2% walk rate and 0.75 HR/9 rate.

Between the three, I think Miller is my favorite. He had the best Stuff+ rating at an impressive 117, which was in the top ten in the league. However, he might be the most expensive of the three, given not only how good his stuff was but also because he has the most MLB experience and did not struggle when given consistent starts.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins seem to be listening to all their pitchers. The best of their starters is Jesus Luzardo. Luzaro is coming off a breakout 2023 season where he had a 3.58 ERA, 3.55 FIP, and 1.21 WHIP through 178.2 innings of work. Luzardo had an outstanding 28.1% strikeout rate to pair with a 7.4% walk rate. He was also above average at limiting home runs with a 1.11 HR/9. Luzardo definitely would not be cheap, as he is controlled via arbitration for three more seasons and is only going to be 26 for all of next season.

Luzardo wasn’t the only breakout lefty starting pitcher for the Marlins last season. Braxton Garrett also had a quality season, working to a 3.66 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP in 159.2 innings. He didn’t have as robust of a strikeout rate as Luzardo did at 23.7%, and the two had nearly identical HR/9 rates as Garrett sat at 1.13. However, Garrett had a significantly lower 4.4% walk rate, the fifth lowest in baseball last season (min. 130 IP). Garrett would arguably be more expensive than Luzardo. Both had similar 2023 numbers and while Garrett is one year older, he has four years of control remaining.

Then there’s righty Edward Cabrera, my favorite of the bunch. Cabrera had a 4.24 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.44 WHIP in 99.2 innings. His walk rate was poor at 15.2%, but that’s about the end of the negatives among his peripherals. He had a 27.2% strikeout rate, 0.99 HR/9, and 54.3% ground ball rate. Cabrera had a great batted ball profile, holding opponents to just an 87.6 MPH exit velo, 35.4% hard-hit rate, and 6.9% barrel rate.

There is one buy-low option, and that’s Trevor Rogers. Rogers looked like he could become one of baseball’s best pitchers in 2021 when he had a 2.64 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP in 133 innings during his rookie season. He was striking out a ton of batters with a 28.5% strikeout rate while having an outstanding 0.41 HR/9. On top of that, he was solid at limiting walks with an 8.4% Bwalk rate. Plus, he was above average in exit velocity (87.7 MPH), barrel rate (5%), and hard-hit rate (36.7%).

But since his astounding rookie campaign, Rogers has only pitched 125 innings with a 5.26 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and 1.46 WHIP. All of his peripherals have moved in the wrong direction, but he’s also missed a good amount of time because of injury. Still, 2024 will only be his age-26 season, and it wasn’t all that long ago he was considered a potential future ace.

Rogers is probably the easiest to pry from the Marlins right now. He can be a good pitcher, but they have a decent rotation with or without him. Cabrera would be my top target in a trade with the Marlins. Both Garrett and Luzardo would be great, but the price might be a bit too much right now.

Conclusion

Between the two teams, the Mariners definitely are in more need of another infielder. So far, the Mariners’ only addition this off-season has been Luis Urias. Shortstop is covered by J.P. Crawford, and Ty France will look to rebound, but Urias and Josh Rojas are their best options at second and third base. Although both were solid batters in 2021-2022, both also had a sub-80 OPS+ last season. Dylan Moore has now posted an above average OPS+ in two straight seasons, but is probably best suited for a super-utility role.

Meanwhile, the Marlins have most of their positions covered. The corners are backed by former Pirate Josh Bell and deadline acquisition Jake Burger. Batting title winner Luis Arraez will return to second base. Shortstop is the weakest link on the infield depth chart for the Marlins. Right now, Jon Berti is atop the list. But Berti still had a 104 OPS+ last season and was a two-WAR player in 424 plate appearances last season. Sure, Berti has mostly served a platoon/super utility role like Moore has, but if the Marlins had to go into the year with Berti as their semi-regular or full-on regular at short, it would probably end better than giving Dylan Moore regular reps at second or third base.

But who has the better players to offer? The Marlins take this category. Garrett, Luzardo, Cabrera, and Rogers all have the potential to be good pitchers next season. Of course, Luzardo and Garrett are the best, but even having to settle for Cabrera would be a plus. Woo and Miller are both good young arms, but Hancock is the most unproven arm between both teams and their potential trade candidates.

In the end, I think the Mariners are the better fit. They need another infielder, and I’d gladly take Woo or Miller in a trade. Sure, the Marlins may have more pitchers who are better than Woo or Miller, but based on price, I think the Ms are a better partner in any potential trade.