Potential candidates to be the next Pirate player extended

Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and Mitch Keller have each been extended since the spring of 2022, who could be the next player to earn a contract extension from the Pittsburgh Pirates?

With Mitch Keller signing a five-year deal at $77 million guaranteed, this now marks three years in a row the Pittsburgh Pirates have extended one of their core players. The first was Ke’Bryan Hayes in 2022, then Bryan Reynolds in 2023, and now Keller this year. The Pirates seem more willing now than ever to hand out contracts to keep their core around for a handful of years. So with that, who could we expect to see the Pirates extend next?

Shortstop Oneil Cruz

The next prime candidate to get an extension is shortstop Oneil Cruz.

Cruz’s 2023 season came to an end before it even began. In the second week of the season, he tore his ankle while sliding into home plate. Unfortunately, he looked very promising before that. Cruz’s 2022 rookie season was solid as he batted .233/.294/.450 with 17 home runs in only 361 plate appearances. Overall, he had a 105 wRC+.

Cruz looked outstanding from mid-August 2022 onward as he hit for a .877 OPS, .377 wOBA, and 143 through his final 167 plate appearances of ‘22. Cruz has some of the most talent of any MLB player. He was in the 91st percentile of exit velocity and the 98th percentile of sprint speed. It should be fun to watch him back in action during 2024.

Closer David Bednar, Others

Closing pitcher David Bednar would be awesome to keep around long-term. Since arriving in Pittsburgh via the Joe Musgrove trade, Bednar owns a 2.25 ERA, 2.56 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. He has an outstanding 31.2% strikeout rate, along with a 7.7% walk rate and 0.60 HR/9. His +4.9 fWAR is the fifth highest of any reliever, while his +6.0 bWAR is 4th highest. On top of that, he might be willing to give the Pirates a hometown discount to stay in Pittsburgh.

I think the Pirates should join the trend of extending one of their prospects before they’re no longer a prospect. I would love to see the Pirates get a deal done with Jared Jones and especially Paul Skenes before 2024 Opening Day.

The Pirates will likely keep both down until they gain the extra year of control, which will likely be sometime in late May or early June. But extending one or both now would let them start in the Major Leagues and would solve the Pirate rotation issues. They could do the same with Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington for similar reasons next year.

The Pirates could also extend one of their young players whose value is currently down. This includes catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, as well as currently injured right-handed starting pitcher Johan Oviedo.

Davis’ first extended look in the big leagues was rough as he had a sub-.700 OPS and faced some injuries. Both Rodriguez and Oviedo underwent Tommy John surgery this off-season. I believe all these guys will be significantly more productive in the future, so extending them now for a lower cost would be smart.

But that works as a double-edged sword. While the Pirates would probably love to secure one or all of these players to a relatively cheap and team friendly deal now, Davis, Rodriguez, and Oviedo do not have much to lose by seeing if they can rebound over the next few seasons.

With the current Pirate trend, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect at least one extension before Opening Day 2025. The Pirates have now done this three seasons in a row and still have a handful of more players they could ink to deals to keep them around for a few years beyond their free agency. I also think it would be smart for a club that runs a budget like the Pirates to extend a young talent before they're no longer a prospect as well.