Potential first basemen who could be on the trade market the Pittsburgh Pirates should consider

First base has given the Pittsburgh Pirates trouble for years now. The last time they had a first baseman post +3.0 fWAR in a season was Kevin Young in 1999, and two consecutive seasons at +2.0 or greater hasn’t been done since the 1980s. While Connor Joe has been good to start the year, he’s mostly succeeded in a Pirates uniform when playing part-time or platooning. The Pirates also do not have a readily available answer in the minor leagues.

But the Pirates do have a lot of pitching depth they should use in trades. They should be actively looking for long-term pieces for the team that can be put into the lineup as soon as they acquire them. If not that, then a prospect who can come up soon after a trade to fill the void of first base. Today, I want to look at options the Pirates might have on the trade market, including short-term options, long-term options, and prospects. I thought about including draft prospects, but that’s a topic I already covered. You can read about some first base draft prospects here.

Short Term Options for the Pirates

If the Toronto Blue Jays are out of it by summer, they might look to move first baseman Vlad Guerrero Jr. The former MVP candidate hasn’t been able to follow up on his astounding 2021 season when he set records for players as young as he was at the time. Guerrero still has a solid .276/.376/.391 triple-slash through 181 plate appearances, resulting in a 126 wRC+. He’s only struck out 18.1% of the time and is carrying a career-high walk rate of 13.3%. But the power simply hasn’t been there. His ISO clocks in at .115, but there is hope it can improve. 

Guerrero is in the top 98th percentile of both exit velocity (94.4 MPH) and hard-hit rate (58.2%). He is also in the 82nd percentile of barrel rate. Guerrero Jr. is still having trouble lifting the baseball, which has limited his power. Guerrero is only controlled through 2025, however. 

If you want someone hitting for a ton of power, look no further than Pete Alonso. Alonso is all about power. He is hitting .230/.317/.461. He is walking at a respectable 9.3% rate with an 18.8% K%. Alonso has nine home runs with a .230 isolated slugging percentage, but there’s definitely room for improvement. Alonso has a .263 expected batting average and a .232 batting average on balls in play compared to his career average of .257. He also has a .350 xwOBA and .477 xSLG%.

Alonso’s defense at first base has always received mixed reviews. This year, he has -2 defensive runs saved, -1 out above average, and -3.4 UZR/150. In his career, he’s typically graded out as above average in the eyes of DRS, average per UZR/150, and below average in OAA. But overall, he’s not a major detriment at the position. Alonso is a rental as he becomes a free agent after this season.

Someone who has flown under the radar for years is Christian Walker. He has hit over 30 home runs in 2022 and 2023 and has been the best defensive 1B in baseball during the five seasons. He’s off to another good start as he’s hitting .265/.377/.437 with a .363 wOBA and 134 wRC+. While his 24.2% strikeout rate is a career-high, so is his 14.2% walk rate. Walker isn’t hitting for much power early on into 2024 and has just a .172 ISO compared to .235+ in 2022-2023, but there is hope for more power.

Walker has a career-high 17.2% barrel rate and 90.5 MPH exit velocity. His barrel rate is one of the best in baseball. His .400 xwOBA is also one of the best and clocks into the 95th percentile. Walker’s .472 xSLG% is more akin to what he’s done in 2022-2023. He’s basically already secured his third straight Gold Glove at first base. Walker has +9 DRS and +6 OAA. No other player has reached more than four in either stat. Walker is also only a rental and becomes a free agent after this season.

Prospects

There aren’t very many great first-base prospects. Most first basemen either started out or played other positions as an amateur or in the minor leagues. But there are definitely some names the Pirates could look into as part of a prospect-for-prospect trade or included as a larger part of another trade. One is New York Yankees’ catcher/first baseman Ben Rice.

Rice was one of the best hitters in the minor leagues last season, batting .324/.434/.615 with a .462 wOBA and 183 wRC+ between three levels of the Yankees’ system. He had a 13.3% walk rate and 18.7% strikeout rate. Rice hit for a ton of power, hitting 20 home runs despite only appearing in 73 games with 335 plate appearances. His ISO clocked in at just under .300 at .291.

Rice has opened the 2024 season at Double-A, where he’s continued to mash baseballs to the tune of a .252/.381/.487 triple-slash, .400 wOBA, and 150 wRC+. He’s striking out a little more frequently with a 23.6% K% but has upped his walk rate slightly to 15%. He got off to a cold start but has a wRC+ approaching 200 dating back to April 17. Rice splits his time between catcher and first base. He’ll probably be best suited for the corner infield position, however, because of his below-average arm and mediocre receiving skills. Still, Rice has a lot of potential with his bat. Rice is also someone I thought the Pirates should ask about in the JT Brubaker trade.

Now, heading over to Boston, you have Niko Kavadas. Kavadas had a good but not great encore to his outstanding 2022 season, where he finished the year with a .280/.443/.547 slash and 170 wRC+. The following year he had just a .805 OPS, .368 wOBA, and 118 wRC+ while striking out 35.8% of the time. But Kavadas is off to a scorching hot start to 2024.

He is hitting .319/.467/.702 with a .496 wOBA and 195 wRC+ through his first 122 plate appearances at Triple-A. He walks a ton and has an 18% BB%, and he’s lowered his strikeout rate dramatically but still sits at an unimpressive 27.9% rate. Kavadas is a hefty 6’1”, 235-LBS. His defensive skills at first base are fringe-average, but either way, you’re buying into the bat here. Boston has plenty of first base options ahead of Kavadas on their long-term depth chart, including 2023 Rookie of the Year finalist Triston Casas and high school prodigy Blaze Jordan in their system.

If the Pirates want to aim a little higher than Rice or Kavadas, another American League East team has a corner infield prospect they might be willing to part with in a prospect for prospect trade. That’s Coby Mayo of the Baltimore Orioles. He hit .290/.410/.563 with a .427 wOBA and 156 wRC+ through 614 plate appearances between the O’s Double-A and Triple-A teams. Mayo’s calling card is power, and he hit 29 home runs with a .274 ISO. He drew a decent amount of walks and posted a 15.1% BB%, but like many big power prospects, he also didn’t have a great strikeout rate, clocking in at 24.1%.

Mayo is batting nearly as well as last year with a .293/.361/.616 with a .417 wOBA and 145 wRC+. Mayo is hitting for even more power with a .323 ISO, but it has come at the cost of his plate discipline. His walk rate has dropped to 8.7%, while his K% has risen to 27.3%. Still, these are great numbers overall. While Mayo has the powerful arm needed to play third base, he’s struggled to make the plays at the hot corner. He’s also a below-average runner, giving him mediocre range. He has already played a handful of games at first base, and it could be his home long-term.