The Pittsburgh Pirates hot start to the season has continued with a series against the rebuilding Rockies. The two teams finish a three game series in Pittsburgh on Wednesday afternoon with Antonio Senzatela matching up against Rich Hill.
Hill has been up and down in his first season with the Pirates while the Rockies are still stretching Senzatela after he started the first month of the season on the injured list. However, is his analytical profile a bit of a concern moving forward as he faces an elite offense in Pittsburgh?
Let's dig into the odds and find the best bet:
Rockies vs. Pirates odds, run line and total
Rockies vs. Pirates prediction and pick
Senzatela had a strong first start of the season, allowing only one earned run on three hits in five innings. However, it's just one start, I'm not putting too much stock into it. Last season, Senzatela put up a 5.07 ERA with a low strikeout rate.
He faces a Pittsburgh lineup that grades out similarly to the Mets, but is far better at generating contact, hitting nearly .250 as a team and putting up a .296 batting average on balls in play. The Rockies are also one of the worst defenses in baseball, bottom five in defensive WAR, so I'm expecting the Pirates to put some runs on the board early and often.
On the other side is Rich Hill, the 43-year-old soft tossing lefty. He can't go deep into games anymore and his ERA of 4.54 is far better than what his underlying metrics indicate. He has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.29 and he gets crushed by home runs if batters can make contact, allowing nearly two homers per nine innings.
The Rockies are top half in the bigs in batting average against lefties, so I believe they can get to Hill in this one, just as the Pirates will get to Senzatela. Let's go over on Wednesday afternoon.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.