Rum Bunter Pittsburgh Pirates Mock Draft 2.0

After creating a three-round mock draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the early spring, let's now look at a potential five-round mock draft as we head into the summer.

Before the 2023 college season commenced, I wrote an article with my five-round mock draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It should be an exciting draft once again, as the Pirates have the number one pick in the first round. With the new lottery system, however, the Pirates will have the number three pick in the rest of the draft. They will also have a competitive balance pick between rounds two and three.

However, now that we're into June, it won't be long until the draft is underway. After nearly a full college season and a good long look at some of the players who will be in this year's draft, I want to do a 2.0 mock draft, including the first five rounds, once again. I am basing it on a few things. The first is prospect rankings. The primary sources I am using for this are Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Future Star Series, which is written by Joe Doyle (formerly of Prospects Live). The second criteria is who I think the Pirates will take. I wouldn't be surprised if they put a focus on pitchers and outfielders early in the draft. The third criteria I am considering is who I think the Pirates should take. Who I think the Pirates should take vs. who I think the Pirates will take can be two very different things. Finally, you also have to take into consideration slot values potentially.

Round Two - Cameron Johnson

I'm sticking with the Pirates taking Cameron Johnson with their second-round pick. All rankings have him as low as 42 and as high as 40, so going #43 overall isn't out of the question. Johnson is definitely my favorite pitcher in this year's draft. He's a tall, well-built kid with the kind of potential that could make him an ace in the future.

Cameron Johnson comes out of IMG Academy, a school many top professional athletes can trace their origins through. Johnson is a massive left-hander. He stands at 6'5", 240-LBS, and uses that size to fling a fastball through the zone in the mid-90s and topping out at 97. He also throws a sweeping slider that sits in the mid-upper-70s. It's a second plus offering. He also throws a change-up, though it's clearly a third pitch as of right now.

The most impressive part of Johnson's game is he's able to throw so hard at such a young age and with his arm angle. Johnson is only 18 and won't turn 19 until next January. He has a low, almost side-arm arm slot, which has some Chris Sale-like attributes. However, he doesn't go as low as the former Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox ace.

A tall, low-arm slot lefty with the last name Johnson and you'll probably hear a comparison to the Big Unit at some point in Cameron's future. There's definitely some relief risk, as his stamina wasn't outstanding, and his change-up looks like an average pitch. Plus, he is committed to LSU, the same school that both Crews and Paul Skenes attend. However, these are nothing that can't be fixed or improved upon and not something that should make the Pirates turn away from if Johnson is still available at #43. I definitely think that Johnson is a pitcher who becomes a consensus first-round pick, maybe even a top-ten pick, if he goes through with his commitment to Louisiana.

Competitive Balance Pick - Hunter Owen

We're going to go with another left-handed pitching prospect with the competitive balance pick. As stated earlier, the Pirates will probably focus on pitching in this year's draft (as well as outfielders). So with the 67th overall selection, I have the Pirates taking Vanderbilt Southpaw Hunter Owen.

Owen has pitched 64 innings for Vandy, working to a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 4.47 K:BB ratio. The left-hander has consistently been a high strikeout pitcher in his college career, and 2023 is no different. He has a 28.9% K rate. But he's not just a pitcher who overpowers opponents with little control. He has just a 6.5% walk rate, though there is a flaw in his numbers. Owen has a 1.27 HR/9, identical to the conference average rate of 1.27.

Owen is even larger than Johnson, standing at a hulking 6'6", 261-LBS. For reference, Oneil Cruz is listed as 6'7", 220-LBS. The Vanderbilt ace typically sits around 94 MPH, though he can crank it up and reach 97. The pitch has carry up in the zone as well. Owen throws two breaking balls, a slider, and a curveball. The former is the better offering, as it's more of a mid-80s power slider. However, he can take a decent bit off to throw an upper-70s curveball. While his slider is the better pitch, his curve is still considered an offering with average potential. Finally, there's his change-up, which has some fading sink but is by far his least used offering.

Now there's a reason Owen isn't going in the first round. This was the first season he was able to pitch healthily as a starting pitcher. Because of that, there is some concern, but the talent is definitely there. Once he builds up his workload, he'll make some serious gains in the prospect stock department.

Round Three - Brandon Sproat

Taking Crews and a high school pitcher will use up a decent amount of pool money. The Pirates are going to have to go with an under-slot pick at some point, and in round three, I have them taking University of Florida right-hander Brandon Sproat. Sproat is a senior who returned to college after getting drafted in the 9th round by the New York Mets. However, the two sides didn't come to an agreement, and Sproat returned to the University of Florida.

Sproat's senior season numbers aren't all that enticing. He had a 4.71 ERA, albeit with a solid 1.17 WHIP and 2.97 K:BB ratio. Both home runs and walks were an issue, as he had a 1.3 HR/9 and BB% of 9.8%. However, his 29.1% K-rate was a massive 7.6% uptick from last season.

While Sproat's numbers aren't all that pretty, his stuff has looked outstanding. Sproat sits 95-97 with glove-side movement with his four-seamer. His mid-80s change-up has fading action when thrown low in the zone. On top of that, he throws a curveball and slider. His slider is the better breaking pitch, with his curve being more of a get-me-over type offering as of right now.

Now this is probably the biggest stretch of my mock draft. Sproat landing in the third round is going to be close already. But I'm sure there are other teams with the same idea, seeing him as a good way to save money and still get a decent prospect.

However, I still think there's enough of a chance he ends up at #73, where the Pirates could (and absolutely should) pick him. Sproat, given he is a little older than most top college pitching prospects, could move through the system faster, as well as give the Pirates a discounted under-slot pick.

Round Four - Spencer Nivens

The Pirates need outfielders, and while adding Dylan Crews is a major boost to the farm system and minor league outfield depth, adding at least one other outfielder early in the draft should be on the Pirates' things-to-do list. That doesn't mean they should go out of their way and make an unwise pick just to get an outfielder, but Spencer Nivens definitely could be a fourth-rounder and one that would be deserving of the pick.

Nivens attends Missouri State University, where he's slashed .343/.440/.594 throughout his college career. Drawing walks and avoiding K's have been one of his strongest suits, as he's drawn ball four in 14% of his plate appearances, with a strikeout rate of just 15.9%. He's also hit for some power with 25 home runs.251 isolated slugging percentage.

This season, Nievens has hit .341/.437/.650. Nivens has gone yard 14 times with an isolated slugging percentage over .300 at .309. He's drawn a walk 12.6% of the time with a quality 16.3% strikeout rate. Nivens' 1.087 OPS is just over 100 points greater than his OPS last season, and he's already surpassed his 2022 home run total in 19 fewer plate appearances.

Nieves takes a high-contact approach to the plate. His contact rate on fastballs is in the 90% range. But he pairs that high-end contact with above-average exit velocity. Nieves has seen an uptick in raw power this past season and projects to be a 20-home run threat.

Nivens split the 2022 season between first base, left field, and center field. However, he's primarily taken up CF in 2023. His speed is average to slightly above average, though his arm strength is on the fringy side. While he's displayed solid instincts in center, he'll likely move to left field.

There's not really one tool here that stands out, nor is there one tool here that is so far below average it would be too risky to take him. His best tool is his hit tool, with his power also projecting to be average to above average. He'll fit fine in left field as well. The ceiling here is a Michael Brantley-type player. The risk is you're already taking a guy who projects as an LF long-term, however.

Round Five - Ethan O'Donnell

You can't do a mock Pirates draft and exclude a Cape Cod League player, nor can you do one without including another outfielder. Ethan O'Donnell batted over .300 while striking out just seven times across 58 plate appearances in the Cape. Although he didn't hit for much power, he brought the muscle to University of Virginia's line-up this season.

After transferring from Northwestern University, O'Donnell has turned in a .359/.452/.600 triple-slash in the ACC. Hitting for power and swiping bases has been no issue for O'Donnell, who has 13 long balls and 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He also has a solid 11.8% walk rate, as well as a K% well under 20% at 17.4%.

O'Donnell is a well-rounded athlete, but his speed and defense are considered his best tools. But that doesn't mean he projects as an all-glove-no-bat outfielder. According to Baseball America, he has a "great feel to hit and advanced barrel sense." He can drive the gaps but has pull-side power as well. If he reaches his potential, he's a .250-.260 batter who smacks 12-15 home runs and hustles out 20+ doubles.

O'Donnell projects as a well-rounded 3rd/4th outfielder with no major strengths or weaknesses. He has good enough skills to play center field but could end up in a corner as well. At 6'1", 190-LBS, he has a large enough frame to muscle the ball out on his pull side. Most draft rankings put him around the 150 range, which would be the mid-fifth round. Of course, draft rankings aren't directly reflections of what teams will likely be selecting. However, O'Donnell would provide the Pirates' system with a solid outfield prospect, one who could eventually take over a regular or semi-regular role.