Rum Bunter Pittsburgh Pirates Mock Draft 2.0

After creating a three-round mock draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates in the early spring, let's now look at a potential five-round mock draft as we head into the summer.

Before the 2023 college season commenced, I wrote an article with my five-round mock draft for the Pittsburgh Pirates. It should be an exciting draft once again, as the Pirates have the number one pick in the first round. With the new lottery system, however, the Pirates will have the number three pick in the rest of the draft. They will also have a competitive balance pick between rounds two and three.

However, now that we're into June, it won't be long until the draft is underway. After nearly a full college season and a good long look at some of the players who will be in this year's draft, I want to do a 2.0 mock draft, including the first five rounds, once again. I am basing it on a few things. The first is prospect rankings. The primary sources I am using for this are Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and Future Star Series, which is written by Joe Doyle (formerly of Prospects Live). The second criteria is who I think the Pirates will take. I wouldn't be surprised if they put a focus on pitchers and outfielders early in the draft. The third criteria I am considering is who I think the Pirates should take. Who I think the Pirates should take vs. who I think the Pirates will take can be two very different things. Finally, you also have to take into consideration slot values potentially.

Round One - Dylan Crews

Let's be honest, is anyone going to have the Pirates taking anyone else but Dylan Crews number one overall in their mock drafts? There have already been comparisons to Bryce Harper simply because of the amount of hype that Crews has built. There's a very good chance Crews breaks the all-time signing bonus record for a 1/1 draft pick.

Crews are posting insane numbers for Louisiana State University. He's slashing .432/.573/.736 throughout 293 plate appearances. He's hit 17 dingers and has racked up 14 doubles. His out-of-this-world power numbers pale in comparison to his plate discipline. Crews has a 20.8% walk rate and has struck out in just 13.9% of his plate appearances. He has 21 more walks (61) than strikeouts (40). Crews isn't known for his speed, but he's a perfect six-for-six in stolen base attempts and is 23-for-28 throughout 186 college games.

Crews' hit tool is the best of its kind in the draft. It's a true 80-grade weapon, which is only made deadlier by the fact he has elite power. His raw power and exit velocity numbers dwarf most other SEC batters. He's the kind of batter you could see bat over .300 with 35+ home runs a season, and that might be underselling him. His ceiling with the bat is a true superstar.

Fielding wise, most believe he can stick in center field. He's not projected to be the next Andruw Jones with the glove, but he can provide average to above-average defense up the middle. But many believe he could be a plus-defensive right fielder as well. He has a strong enough arm and is more than fast enough to handle any of the three outfield spots. While Crews might be among the league leaders in stolen bases, he could swipe a dozen bags yearly.

The only potential alternative to Crews is his LSU teammate Paul Skenes. Skenes is probably the most talented pitcher in the draft since Stephen Strasburg, but the risk that is associated with taking a pitcher so early puts Crews in the tier above Skenes. Just take the Texas Rangers as a cautionary tale about taking pitchers early. Crews is not only the obvious pick at number one but also the right pick.

Round Two - Cameron Johnson

I'm sticking with the Pirates taking Cameron Johnson with their second-round pick. All rankings have him as low as 42 and as high as 40, so going #43 overall isn't out of the question. Johnson is definitely my favorite pitcher in this year's draft. He's a tall, well-built kid with the kind of potential that could make him an ace in the future.

Cameron Johnson comes out of IMG Academy, a school many top professional athletes can trace their origins through. Johnson is a massive left-hander. He stands at 6'5", 240-LBS, and uses that size to fling a fastball through the zone in the mid-90s and topping out at 97. He also throws a sweeping slider that sits in the mid-upper-70s. It's a second plus offering. He also throws a change-up, though it's clearly a third pitch as of right now.

The most impressive part of Johnson's game is he's able to throw so hard at such a young age and with his arm angle. Johnson is only 18 and won't turn 19 until next January. He has a low, almost side-arm arm slot, which has some Chris Sale-like attributes. However, he doesn't go as low as the former Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox ace.

A tall, low-arm slot lefty with the last name Johnson and you'll probably hear a comparison to the Big Unit at some point in Cameron's future. There's definitely some relief risk, as his stamina wasn't outstanding, and his change-up looks like an average pitch. Plus, he is committed to LSU, the same school that both Crews and Paul Skenes attend. However, these are nothing that can't be fixed or improved upon and not something that should make the Pirates turn away from if Johnson is still available at #43. I definitely think that Johnson is a pitcher who becomes a consensus first-round pick, maybe even a top-ten pick, if he goes through with his commitment to Louisiana.

Competitive Balance Pick - Hunter Owen

We're going to go with another left-handed pitching prospect with the competitive balance pick. As stated earlier, the Pirates will probably focus on pitching in this year's draft (as well as outfielders). So with the 67th overall selection, I have the Pirates taking Vanderbilt Southpaw Hunter Owen.

Owen has pitched 64 innings for Vandy, working to a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 4.47 K:BB ratio. The left-hander has consistently been a high strikeout pitcher in his college career, and 2023 is no different. He has a 28.9% K rate. But he's not just a pitcher who overpowers opponents with little control. He has just a 6.5% walk rate, though there is a flaw in his numbers. Owen has a 1.27 HR/9, identical to the conference average rate of 1.27.

Owen is even larger than Johnson, standing at a hulking 6'6", 261-LBS. For reference, Oneil Cruz is listed as 6'7", 220-LBS. The Vanderbilt ace typically sits around 94 MPH, though he can crank it up and reach 97. The pitch has carry up in the zone as well. Owen throws two breaking balls, a slider, and a curveball. The former is the better offering, as it's more of a mid-80s power slider. However, he can take a decent bit off to throw an upper-70s curveball. While his slider is the better pitch, his curve is still considered an offering with average potential. Finally, there's his change-up, which has some fading sink but is by far his least used offering.

Now there's a reason Owen isn't going in the first round. This was the first season he was able to pitch healthily as a starting pitcher. Because of that, there is some concern, but the talent is definitely there. Once he builds up his workload, he'll make some serious gains in the prospect stock department.

Round Four - Spencer Nivens

The Pirates need outfielders, and while adding Dylan Crews is a major boost to the farm system and minor league outfield depth, adding at least one other outfielder early in the draft should be on the Pirates' things-to-do list. That doesn't mean they should go out of their way and make an unwise pick just to get an outfielder, but Spencer Nivens definitely could be a fourth-rounder and one that would be deserving of the pick.

Nivens attends Missouri State University, where he's slashed .343/.440/.594 throughout his college career. Drawing walks and avoiding K's have been one of his strongest suits, as he's drawn ball four in 14% of his plate appearances, with a strikeout rate of just 15.9%. He's also hit for some power with 25 home runs.251 isolated slugging percentage.

This season, Nievens has hit .341/.437/.650. Nivens has gone yard 14 times with an isolated slugging percentage over .300 at .309. He's drawn a walk 12.6% of the time with a quality 16.3% strikeout rate. Nivens' 1.087 OPS is just over 100 points greater than his OPS last season, and he's already surpassed his 2022 home run total in 19 fewer plate appearances.

Nieves takes a high-contact approach to the plate. His contact rate on fastballs is in the 90% range. But he pairs that high-end contact with above-average exit velocity. Nieves has seen an uptick in raw power this past season and projects to be a 20-home run threat.

Nivens split the 2022 season between first base, left field, and center field. However, he's primarily taken up CF in 2023. His speed is average to slightly above average, though his arm strength is on the fringy side. While he's displayed solid instincts in center, he'll likely move to left field.

There's not really one tool here that stands out, nor is there one tool here that is so far below average it would be too risky to take him. His best tool is his hit tool, with his power also projecting to be average to above average. He'll fit fine in left field as well. The ceiling here is a Michael Brantley-type player. The risk is you're already taking a guy who projects as an LF long-term, however.

Round Five - Ethan O'Donnell

You can't do a mock Pirates draft and exclude a Cape Cod League player, nor can you do one without including another outfielder. Ethan O'Donnell batted over .300 while striking out just seven times across 58 plate appearances in the Cape. Although he didn't hit for much power, he brought the muscle to University of Virginia's line-up this season.

After transferring from Northwestern University, O'Donnell has turned in a .359/.452/.600 triple-slash in the ACC. Hitting for power and swiping bases has been no issue for O'Donnell, who has 13 long balls and 18 stolen bases in 21 attempts. He also has a solid 11.8% walk rate, as well as a K% well under 20% at 17.4%.

O'Donnell is a well-rounded athlete, but his speed and defense are considered his best tools. But that doesn't mean he projects as an all-glove-no-bat outfielder. According to Baseball America, he has a "great feel to hit and advanced barrel sense." He can drive the gaps but has pull-side power as well. If he reaches his potential, he's a .250-.260 batter who smacks 12-15 home runs and hustles out 20+ doubles.

O'Donnell projects as a well-rounded 3rd/4th outfielder with no major strengths or weaknesses. He has good enough skills to play center field but could end up in a corner as well. At 6'1", 190-LBS, he has a large enough frame to muscle the ball out on his pull side. Most draft rankings put him around the 150 range, which would be the mid-fifth round. Of course, draft rankings aren't directly reflections of what teams will likely be selecting. However, O'Donnell would provide the Pirates' system with a solid outfield prospect, one who could eventually take over a regular or semi-regular role.