Rum Bunter Staff Mock Hall of Fame Ballot: Noah Wright

Billy Wagner

The very first player I would give my vote to is left-handed closing pitcher Billy Wagner. Wagner pitched from the years 1995 through 2010 and solidified himself as one of the best relievers of all-time. Not only do I think he is the greatest lefty reliever ever, but I think he is the best non-Mariano Rivera closer to take the mound.

Wagner owns a career 187 ERA+/2.31 ERA, along with a 2.73 FIP and 0.998 WHIP in 903 career innings. Among all-time relievers with at least 500 innings pitched, there is only one arm with a better ERA+, and that’s Mariano at 205. Only one left-handed relief pitcher has more saves than Wagner’s 422, that being John Franco at a slim margin of 424. Wagner has the 3rd best WHIP behind just Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel. Only 24 relievers have ever struck out over 1000 batters. Wagner ranks sixth all-time.

It’s a real shame Wagner called it quits when he did. In his last season in MLB with the Atlanta Braves, the lefty had a career best 1.43 ERA. That was his age-38 season. Guys like Rivera and Trevor Hoffman pitched into their early-40s. It might be better to go out on a high note than like Hoffman who struggled in his final MLB season, but we’re talking about maybe getting to 450+ saves if he stuck around another year or two.

Still, I don’t think that should hurt his candidacy. 903 innings from Wagner is 10x more valuable than 1000+ innings from most relievers. He’s still arguably the second greatest reliever of all-time. WAR is not a good way to compare relievers, but for what it's worth, Wagner has nearly the same bWAR as Trevor Hoffman despite nearly 200 fewer innings pitched.

Adrian Beltre

Yeah, this is a pretty obvious pick. The only reason he wouldn’t be the first guy I check the box for is because it's so obvious. Adrian Beltre is easily one of the best third basemen of all-time. He was a great hitter and arguably the only third baseman who was better than him with the leather is Brooks Robinson.

Beltre checks many of the boxes for counting or cumulative stats. He has 477 home runs, over 3000 hits, and nearly 100 bWAR at +93.5. He is a career .286/.339/.480 batter with a 116 OPS+ and 115 wRC+. One could argue that he is the best third baseman of all-time. 

Among players who played at least half of their games at the hot corner, no one has more hits than him. He has 5309 total bases, which far outpaces George Brett’s 5044 TBs who has the second most among primary 3Bs. Only Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews have more career home runs and more bWAR.

Defensively, he has +27 dWAR and +201 defensive runs saved. DRS didn’t become an officially recognized statistic until 2003, Beltre’s 6th season. Despite that, Beltre is one of only two defenders all-time with at least 200 defensive runs saved. 

There’s not much else to say about Beltre other than he deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame. It’s a shame that he won’t get to 100% because there’s really no argument against him. There’s really nothing you could possibly say to reasonably leave him off a ballot.

Todd Helton

The “Coors Effect” feels so overblown. Sure, Coors Field is a very hitter friendly park. But Todd Helton deserves was a great hitter, regardless of if he played in Coors or not. Helton appeared in 17 big league seasons, all with the Colorado Rockies. He has a good chance of making the Hall this year, and if I had a vote, I would give him one.

Helton is a career .316/.414/.549 batter. He is one of just five first basemen who is in the .300/.400/.500 club (min. 5000 plate appearances). Sure, his 133 career OPS+ is by far the lowest among the other first basemen in that club, but that’s still a good rate. That nearly matches the likes of Fred McGriff, Eddie Murray, and Orlando Cepeda. According to Baseball Reference’s similarity score, four of the top five players they name are Hall of Famers, including Jeff Bagwell, Edgard Martinez, Vlad Guerrero Sr., and Cepeda. 

Helton also has multiple cumulative stats that are Hall worthy. He racked up 2519 hits and 369 home runs. Helton has +61.4 bWAR as well. He is also just one of seven 1Bs with 2500+ hits and an OPS+ of 130 or greater. The five are in the Hall of Fame and the sixth is Rafael Palmeiro, who would be in the Hall had it not been for his connection to PEDs. 

But Helton was a great defensive first baseman with +107 total zone runs at first base. He has the ninth most fielding runs per Baseball Reference. Of the eight other names ahead of him, three played pre-WWII. 

I honestly think Helton is one of the most underrated first basemen ever. He hit well throughout his career and was an elite defensive 1B. I think too many people compare players to the inner-circle Hall of Fame types, when that’s not the standard to make the Hall.

Carlos Beltran

Carlos Beltran appeared in 20 MLB seasons stretching from 1998 through 2017. In that time, he appeared in games for the Kansas City Royals, the Houston Astros (twice), the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Yankees, and Texas Rangers. While he never stuck with one team for most of his career, he is definitely deserving of a spot in Cooperstown.

Beltran ended his career as a career .279/.350/.486 batter. He had a 119 OPS+ and ended up accumulating a lot of impressive numbers.Beltran is in some pretty elite company. There are just two other players who logged at least half of their games up the middle with 2700+ hits and 400+ home runs. That’s Ken Griffey Jr. and Willie Mays. 

The switch-hitter was a great power/speed threat, going yard 435 times with 312 stolen bases. Willie Mays is the only other primary center fielder with 400+ dingers and 300+ steals. Beltran also has a long history of Postseason success. He has 16 home runs in the playoffs with an OPS over 1.000 in 256 plate appearances.

Beltran ended his career with +70.1 bWAR, something only eight center fielders have achieved in their careers. Nearly every single player with 70+ bWAR is in the Hall of Fame. The ones who aren’t are either heavily connected to steroids or are still active. 

Even though he is highly suspected of being the mastermind behind the Astros’ cheating scandal, it happened back in 2017, six years ago. That doesn’t excuse the actions of the Astros, but it’s not even 100% confirmed that Beltran was the mastermind behind the scandal, as it was suspected that a “veteran player” was behind it. It could have been Brian McCann, Marwin Gonzalez, or Evan Gattis for all we know. Even if you want to hold it against him, 2017 ended up being Beltran’s worst season by far by nearly every single metric you can possibly think of.

Chase Utley

I think Chase Utley is the best second baseman to have never reached 2000 hits and not have a strong connection to steroids. The longtime Philadelphia Phillie spent the first 12 and a half years of his career in white and red. The final few years of his career were spent as a platoon infielder for the LA Dodgers. 

Utley ended his MLB career with a .275/.358/.465 triple-slash. He hit 258 home runs, the seventh most by any player to spend at least half of their career at second base. He also reached the 3000 total base milestone, something only 23 primary second basemen have achieved in their careers. Utley’s league and park adjusted 117 OPS+ is better than some Hall of Fame second basemen, such as Roberto Alomar and Ryne Sandberg.

But Utley never reached 2000 hits. He ended his career with 1885 hits. For some, that’s a reason to leave him off their ballot, and I can totally see why. While he didn’t have a long, 20+ year career, he still managed to reach +64.5 bWAR, which is top 20 among second basemen of all-time.

Utley was great defensively at the keystone with +123 defensive runs saved. He racked up +17.3 defensive WAR. That safely puts him in the top 100 of all-time. Shockingly, Utley never won a Gold Glove for his efforts. There are times he deserved the Gold Glove but got snubbed of the award.

Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer has an interesting career which has made fans debate his Hall of Fame candidacy for years now. Now that it’s his first year on the ballot, the debates are getting even more intensified. Mauer spent seven years of his career solely behind the plate. In the early-2010s, he started to see playing time at first base because of concussions. Then by 2014, he was playing first base full time.

Mauer was a great hitter, regardless of his position. He was a career .306/.388/.439 batter with a 124 OPS+. Mauer was never a power hitter and fell seven homers short of 150. But he hit 428 doubles and averaged 37 a season. He also drew nearly as many walks (939) as times he struck out (1034). Of the 14 years Mauer played at least 50 games, he had an OPS+ of 100 or greater in 13 of them.

Mauer did reach some noteworthy milestones, such as 2000 hits (2123) and +50 bWAR (+55.3). In the end, Mauer played at least half of his career behind the plate and is one of 11 backstops with 2000+ hits. Of those 11 catchers, he had the 4th best OPS+, just 1% behind Yogi Berra and 2% behind Johnny Bench.

Mauer was obviously a good defensive catcher throughout his career, but was even a better defensive first baseman. He had +21 defensive runs saved at first. But overall, between hi solid hitting and quality defense at two positions, he had +55.2 bWAR. That’s pretty good for someone who spent over 60% of their innings in the field behind the plate. 

So how do I see Joe Mauer? He was a great hitter who played two positions to a well above average level. Had they not been on the two extremes of the defensive spectrum, there would probably be much less debate about if he is deserving of the Hall of Fame or not. But over +50 bWAR, 2000 hits and a closet full of accolades is good enough for me to give him a vote.

Alex Rodriguez

I have one rule for players who were caught or admitted to using PEDs: they have to be inner-circle guys. Steroids may make you a better player, but only to a certain degree. But nothing short of Captain America’s super soldier serum will make a player an inner circle Hall of Famer. That’s why I am including Alex Rodriguez on this mock ballot.

A-Rod is an inner circle Hall of Famer. He batted .295/.380/.550 with a 140 OPS+. That’s already Hall of Fame worthy. He reached the 3000 hit mark and fell just four home runs shy of 700. He was a speed demon in his prime and swiped 329 bags throughout his entire career. Rodriguez drove in 2000 runs, something only five MLB players have ever accomplished in their career.

Rodriguez racked up +10.4 defensive WAR. He was a good defensive shortstop and third baseman. It would have been insane to see what his career WAR would have been had he stuck at shortstop longer than he did. Of course, he shifted over to the hot corner because nobody was de-throning Derek Jeter at shortstop. Rodriguez ended his career with +117.5 bWAR, the 20th most of any MLB player ever, but he probably could have reached +120 if he stuck at third longer.

Alex Rodriguez is not a saint and he’s not my favorite player. But he’s an inner circle Hall of Famer, steroids or no steroids. I doubt he was taking the same drugs that made Steve Rogers Captain America. Even if you take away a third of his couting/cumulative stats, you get a player with over 2000 hits, 460 home runs, 1300 runs batted in, and a bWAR approaching +80. 

Bobby Abreu

This one might seem out there, but let me explain it. If I had a vote, I would 100% include Bobby Abreu. Abreu spent 18 years in the big leagues with six different teams. His most memorable stint was his nine season stretch with the Philadelphia Phillies from 1998 through mid-2006. Abreu doesn’t seem like a clear HOF candidate, but here are some reasons why I would vote for him.

Abreu had a career .291/.395/.475 line with a 125 OPS+. Abreu had a great blend of speed and power. He hit 288 home runs and stole 400 bases. There is just one other right fielder in baseball history with over 280 homers and 400 steals. That’s Bobby Bonds. Abreu has 2470 hits, 570 of which went for doubles. The latter counting stat is the third most ever hit by a right fielder.

Overall, Abreu reached the +60 bWAR milestone, just barely. He snuck in with +60.2. That puts him right in between Vlad Guerrero Sr. (+59.5) and Dave Winfield (+64.2). So far, all but one of the right fielders with +60 bWAR and at least 2400 hits has made the Hall of Fame. The only other one not currently eligible for Hall of Fame voting not already in Cooperstown is Dwight Evans.

This is Abreu’s 4th year on the ballot and he only had 15.4% last year. It’s going to be a pretty uphill battle for Abreu, but Larry Walker had even less support by his fifth season and he eventually got into the Hall by his tenth go around. It took some convincing from the wider baseball community to influence voters, but he eventually got there once voters’ eyes were opened to his very underrated career. Could the same happen to Abreu in the coming years? We shall see.

Andruw Jones

Andruw Jones was an all-star center fielder most famous for his stretch from 1996 through 2007 with the Atlanta Braves. Jones is in his seventh year on the ballot and has gained some traction as of recently. But there have been a few factors that have held him back from reaching the Hall of Fame.

Jones was a solid hitter throughout his career, posting a career .254/.337/.468 line with a 111 OPS+. But he was one of the best power hitters in the sport from the late 1990s through the early 2000s. He hit a career 434 home runs. He has the 11th most home runs from his debut in 1996 up through his final game in 2012. 

Jones was a good hitter, but he is the best defensive center fielder of all-time. He racked up +24.4 defensive WAR, the most by any center fielder. With +253 total zone runs, only Brooks Robinson surpasses Jones. He won ten straight Gold Glove awards from 1998 through 2007. Even though defensive runs saved wouldn’t be created until his eight big league season, he still ended his MLB career with +65 DRS in the outfield. Only three players all-time have hit 400+ home runs and racked up +20 defensive WAR. That trio is Jones, Beltre, and Cal Ripken Jr. 

There are two major reasons why voters have been hesitant to vote for him. The first reason is his relatively short career. Jones played more than 100 games just one time after his age-30 season. He was out of MLB after 2012 when he was only 35. The second, arguably more valid reason why voters haven’t included him on their ballot is because of his domestic violence charge in December of 2012.

If someone left Jones off their ballot because of the domestic violence issue, that’s fine and I’m not going to judge that. What he did was not good, but this isn’t a Hall of Morals mock ballot. He did not beat his wife to a pulp, nor did he commit any sort of sexual assault/harassment. Sure, I think there’s a certain line, but I don’t think Jones crossed it.

Who I wouldn’t vote for and why

In my opinion, there are a handful of potential one-and-done guys, such as James Shields, Adrian Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Jose Reyes, Brandon Phillips, Jose Bautista, and Bartolo Colon. Hats off to all of them for even being elected onto this year’s Hall Of Fame ballot. They all had careers to be extremely proud of, but I don’t see them getting even close to making it in, let alone the 5% needed to stay on the ballot a second season. Bautista is the only former Pittsburgh Pirate on this year’s ballot.

Andy Pettit, Mark Buerhle, Jimmy Rollins, Francisco Rodriguez, and Torii Hunter are returning guys, but I just think there are at least ten other players on this year’s ballot who are more deserving than them. If I had to vote for someone from this group, it would be Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod ended up 4th in saves all time with a better ERA+ than Lee Smith or Trevor Hoffman.

David Wright is going to be an interesting case, but I simply don’t think he played long enough. Injuries completely derailed his career and played just 211 games in the five years after his age-30 season. I feel awful that his career was completely ruined by injuries like it was, but it’s just the way it is.

Both Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield would be on my ballot had they not had a strong connection to steroids. As I said earlier, if a player was connected to or suspended for steroids, they had to have already been inner-circle Hall of Famers. Sheffield and Ramirez were both good players, but neither reached 3000 hits, 600 home runs, 1800 runs batted in, or +70 bWAR. To be an inner circle Hall of Famer, I think you need to reach one or multiple of these milestones.

Of course, then there’s Omar Vizquel, who I don’t think I need to explain why I would leave him off the ballot. But for those uninformed, Vizquel committed sexual harassment toward a bat boy with down syndrome while managing one of the Chicago White Sox’s minor league affiliates. Even if he had 4000 hits and 700 home runs, that kind of behavior would never get a vote from me if I had one.