Rum Bunter Staff Predictions for the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates: Brenden Zielinski

Most Valuable Player - Oneil Cruz

Yes, I'm starting out with a bang! Many would say that Bryan Reynolds is the clear answer to be a potential MVP candidate, but if Oneil Cruz develops properly next season, he could easily put up a potential MVP level stat line and potentially become one of the next great players in all of baseball. In his rookie season with the Pirates, the young 23-year-old shortstop struggled at the plate, posting a .233/.294/.450, with 17 home runs, 54 RBIs, and a 106 wRC+ across 87 games.

Cruz had one of the worst strikeout percentages in all of baseball at 34.9%, constantly chased pitches out of the zone, was a below average fielder at shortstop, and was abysmal against breaking pitches, only hitting a .166 batting average against them. However, even with his negatives, there were a lot of positives to his season.

Last season, Cruz was in the top 90+ percentile in terms of average exit velocity, max exit velocity, barrel rate, sprint speed, and arm strength according to StatCast. While he was below average in terms of plate discipline, he was still able to walk 7.8% of the time at the plate and stole 10 bases. Even in a dissapointing season, Cruz's power potential was on full display after hitting 17 home runs and 13 doubles with the Pirates.

At 6'7", Oneil Cruz is a physical specimen and it is almost unheard of for a player that tall to be playing shortstop, but Cruz is finding a way to make it work. One of Cruz's personal goals this year is to become a 30/30 or 40/40 player (home runs/stolen bases), which shows that he is confident in his ability to improve. If Cruz is able to put together a 30/30 season after just 87 career games and improves defensively, that would be quite an amazing improvement! The raw potential is there; let's hope he finally breaks out and becomes the team's MVP for the foreseeable future. If not, Bryan Reynolds will be the clear lock for MVP.

Best Starter - Mitch Keller

Coming into the 2022 season, Mitch Keller was on his way to being labeled as a "former top-prospect turned bust" and was coming off multiple dreadful seasons with the Pirates. From 2019-2021, Keller posted a combined 6.02 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and a 1.73 WHIP across 170.1 innings pitched and 39 starts; definitely not the best track record for Keller.

However, after a rough start to the 2022 season, Keller made changes that immediately changed his season for the better. In the second half of the season, Keller posted a 3.09ERA, 3.90FIP, struck out 61 batters, limited his walks to just 26, and had a 1.31WHIP across 70 innings pitched. Overall, Keller had a career year, and adding a lethal sinker to his pitching repertoire helped him get to that point.

His sinker was quietly one of the best sinkers in all of baseball with a -8 run value and he had better command of his breaking pitches compared to prior seasons. Keller also became a better groundball pitcher, posting a career-high 49% groundball rate, which helped limit hard contact and homerun issues. Due to his success last season, there is no reason why he shouldn't have a better season in 2023.

In spring training, Keller looked way more confident on the mound and his command looked very impressive. After being named the Opening Day starter for the first time in his career, the 26-year-old has a lot to prove to Pirates fans and I believe that he can become the best pitcher on our roster in 2023.

Best Bullpen Arm - David Bednar

Ever since 2021, David Bednar has turned himself into one of the best relievers in all of baseball with the Pirates. From 2021-2022, Bednar posted a combined 2.40 ERA, 2.57 FIP, struck out 146 batters, and had a 1.04WHIP across 112.1 innings pitched and 106 appearances. 2022 was Bednar's first real shot as the team's closer and he didn't disappoint, putting together a 19 save season on one of the worst teams in all of baseball.

Bednar has been an exteremely reliable strikeout pitcher, especially with a combined 32.7K% over the last two seasons in Pittsburgh and his dominant pitching repertoire. Due to his success last season, Bednar was named an NL All-Star and was also invited to represent Team USA in the 2023 World Baseball Classic. With Team USA, Bednar posted a 2.25ERA and struck out 5 batters in 4 innings pitched.

With this revamped 2023 Pirates roster, Bednar should be able to provide more save opportunities and continue his recent success as one of the best and most underrated relievers in all of baseball. Colin Holderman could also be considered for the "best bullpen arm" title, but Bednar will easily beat him out for that role.

Most Surprising Player - Dauri Moreta

After being acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in the Kevin Newman trade, some fans were disappointed that the Pirates only got a 26-old-reliever who was coming off a dreadful 5.40 ERA in 2022. However, as time has moved on, the fans seem to be growing on Moreta after a solid spring training, where he posted a 2.79 ERA, struck out 13 batters, only walked one, and a 1.13 WHIP across 9.2 innings pitched out of the bullpen.

Looking deeper into his numbers last season, Moreta struggled in the first half, posting a 7.09 ERA before being optioned to Triple-A. After being optioned and recalled to the majors, Moreta improved significantly in the second half of the season, posting a 1.54ERA across 11 innings with the Reds. Moreta's biggest issues were giving up the long ball, after allowing 10 home runs (most of which were at the start of the season) and control issues at times. After watching him pitch this spring, he looks like a completely different pitcher!

Moreta's slider was arguably his best pitch last season, after holding opponents to an impressively low .103 batting average, .207 slugging percentage, and it had a 48.9% whiff rate, which left batters swinging out of their shoes! His 95+ mph fastball wasn't anything to scoff at either, holding batters to just a .190 batting average and a 26% whiff rate.

Due to injuries to Jarlin Garcia and Robert Stephenson, all signs are pointing to Moreta squeezing out a bullpen spot to start off the 2023 season. With Moreta joining the Pirates, I wouldn't be surprised if he has an extremely underrated season out of the bullpen and has a breakout season.

Rookie of the Year - Mike Burrows

After solidifying himself as one of the top Pirates pitching prospects last season, Mike Burrows is looking to improve on a very successful 2022 campaign. With the Altoona Curve, Burrows was fun to watch, posting a 2.94 ERA, 2.72 FIP, struck out 69 batters, and had a 1.10 WHIP across 52 innings pitched and 12 starts. Burrows struck out 32.4% of the batters that he faced and continued to limit hard contact.

Mike Burrows was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis to finish the 2022 season, where he posted a 5.31 ERA, 3.98 FIP, struck out 42 batters, and had a 1.35 WHIP across 42.1 innings pitched and 10 starts. Even with various minor injuries that season, Mike Burrows was selected for the 2022 Futures Game and was named the #2 pitching prospect in the Pirates farm system behind fellow teammate Quinn Priester. While Burrow’s numbers on paper didn't look great, one bad game toward the end of the season inflated his ERA significantly after giving up 6 earned runs, so he was very unlucky. Without that start, Burrows would’ve had a 4.10 ERA for the Indians.

Burrows is known for his ability to limit home runs (HR/9: 2018: 0.00, 2019: 0.41, 2021: 0.55, 2022: 0.52, 2022: 1.06) and has excelled in limiting hard contact throughout his entire minor league career. Burrows houses a lethal pitching repertoire that consists of a mid-90's fastball, a dominant curveball, and changeup, and his most recent addition: a slider with lots of horizontal break. Even though Mike Burrows will start out the 2023 season in Triple-A, he will still receive multiple chances at the major league level in the rotation or the bullpen. Many would argue that Endy Rodriguez should be the clear consensus pick for Rookie of the Year, but I believe Burrows will be a surprise find this year.

Breakout Position Player - Rodolfo Castro

After a relatively disappointing season, Rodolfo Castro still showed some promise as the potential future of the second base position. In 71 games, Castro posted a below-average stat line at .233/.299/.427, hit 11 homeruns, 27 RBIs, and had a 103 wRC+. While Castro was able to generate walks 7.9% of the time at the plate, he still struggled with a 26.6 strikeout rate and wasn't able to get on base much. He wasn't an exceptional defender at the second base position last season, but he has made strides to be better during Spring Training this year.

With the future of the position up in the air, this is Rodolfo Castro's chance to shine and I believe he will have a massive chip on his shoulder this year. With solid power upside, Castro could potentially hit close to 15-20 homeruns. If he limits his strikeouts and improves his defensive ability at second base, the sky is the limit for this young buc!

Pirates Record- 72-90 (4th in NL Central)

Yes, I'm not completely delusional. The Pirates are not ready to make it to the playoffs and I don't realistically see that happening until 2024 or later. Since the Ben Cherington rebuild started in 2019, the Pirates have had two back-to-back 100+ loss seasons, and if the 2020 season wasn't shortened due to the pandemic, I truly believe we would have had three consecutive 100+ loss seasons.

However, the current roster on-paper looks significantly better compared to the last 5 seasons. After multiple mediocre or downright terrible offseasons, the Pirates actually went out and spent money on free agents to try and be somewhat competitive this season. With veterans Carlos Santana, Rich Hill, Vince Velasquez, and Austin Hedges being signed to 1 year deals, multiple trades made to bring talent to the team, and top prospects waiting in the wings, anything can happen this season.

The Pirates are in a unique position to potentially be competitive in a weak NL Central division and could surprise a lot of baseball fans if certain things play out. Sure, the Cardinals and Cubs were very active in free agency and are the clear favorites to win the division, but the Brewers are potentially about to go on a massive firesale at the deadline and gut the team entirely. The Pirates could easily try and push for the no. 3 spot in the NL Central, as long as our offense and pitching doesn't completely fall apart like in previous seasons. The Reds aren't going to be much of an issue, but they're a young team that could surprise us.

There are still a lot of questions about this team: Could Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds hit 30+ home runs next season? Will Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller solidify themselves as top rotation arms? Will top prospects Mike Burrows, Luis Ortiz, and Endy Rodriguez adjust well to Major League pitching? Will our bullpen improve compared to prior seasons of mediocrity? Will Andrew McCutchen return to MVP form? (doubtful for the latter)

Only time will tell if the Pirates turn into a bottom-feeder in the National League, or compete for a wildcard spot. I'll be putting my money on the Pirates winning 72-75 wins, but if they somehow make a playoff push, I'll be eating my words in October.