Rum Bunter Staff Predictions For The 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates: Noah Wright

With the regular season just around the corner let's take a look at some predictions for the 2023 campaign

It's that time of the year again; time for the predictions to start rolling out. The Pittsburgh Pirates are coming off one of the best off-seasons they've had in years, at least in terms of the major league roster. They actually acquired a handful of veterans who have an excellent chance of positively impacting the team, both on and off the field. With the up-and-coming young talent, the Pirates' roster is starting to take shape.

This year will be interesting. If things play out right and the Pirates play their cards right, they could make the National League Central a somewhat competitive division. With that being said, what are my predictions for the Pirates' 2023 season?

Most Valuable Player - Bryan Reynolds

No, I do not think Bryan Reynolds will be dealt any time soon, if ever. A lot of fans may have Oneil Cruz as the team's MVP for 2023. After all, Cruz has a sky-high offensive ceiling and could hit 30-35 home runs, even if he plays to even three-quarters of his potential. But I am going with the safe bet of Reynolds here as the team's MVP.

Reynolds is coming off a 'down season,' but only by his highly lofty standards. In 614 plate appearances, the switch hitter batted .262/.345/.461 with a .349 wOBA and 122 wRC+. His OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ were all his career worsts, but he was still well above average. On the plus side, he smashed 27 home runs, which was a career-best. But he also struck out 23% of the time (another career worst). His 9.1% walk rate was also above average.

So what reasons are there to believe Reynolds can 'rebound'? Reynolds got off to a dismal start to the season. But by late May, he was back into the swing of things. From May 25th through the end of the season, Reynolds slashed .279/.358/.497 with a .367 wOBA and 137 wRC+. In terms of OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, these fell right in line with his 2019-2021 numbers. Reynolds also had a career-best 90.2 MPH exit velocity and a 42.9% hard-hit rate.

Another positive that will work in Reynolds' favor is the new shift rules. Although he is a switch-hitter, he was shifted on in about three-quarters of his plate appearances when he faced a right-handed pitcher (when Reynolds was batting left-handed). He had just a .346 wOBA when the shift was on compared to .373 with no shift.

Not only do I think that Reynolds will continue being a .850+ OPS, .360+ wOBA, and 135+ wRC+ batter, but I also believe that he'll be more valuable overall. Reynolds has primarily worked in left field this Spring. Reynolds had a poor season in center field last year, being worth -14 defensive runs saved, -7 outs above average, and having a UZR/150 of -3.2. Granted, he did have +10 defensive runs saved in 2021, but both DRS (-5) and UZR/150 (-5.6) still viewed him in a negative light. In 2019, the only season he was given an extended look in left field, he only had -2 OAA but +3 DRS.

Reynolds actually played a very good right field in the brief time he was given there in 2019. It was only 241 innings, but he racked up +3 DRS and +2 OAA. For those worried about how his arm would play in right field, he was in the top 80th percentile of arm strength in 2022 and has consistently been in the 77th+ percentile since fielder arm strength has been measured.

Reynolds will hit .290/.370/.480 with a 135+ wRC+ once again and be worth 5+ fWAR now, given he'll be at a position he can fully take advantage of his defense. It should be another big season for Reynolds, but this time around, he may have more opportunities to drive in runners given the improved line-up he'll be housed in.

Best Pitcher - Mitch Keller

It's Mitch Keller's time to shine. The former top pitching prospect had struggled for years for multiple reasons. In Keller's first year, he was extremely unlucky; the next year, he was extremely lucky, then outright was not good in 2021. 2022 was a make-or-break season for Keller, and he made the best of it, making some drastic changes and helping him become one of the National League's better pitchers down the stretch.

From May 25th through the end of the year, Keller had a quality 3.20 ERA, 3.67 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. Sure, he wasn't a strikeout machine with a strikeout rate of just 20.5%, but he had a solid 8.7% walk rate and held opponents to an HR/9 of 0.65. Keller became a heavy ground ball pitcher, inducing a grounder nearly 50% of the time (49.9% to be exact) while holding opponents to an 88 MPH exit velocity.

So what all of a sudden changed for Keller? The first thing is he started to incorporate a sinker into his arsenal. May 25th was the first day he used it at a high rate (a third of the time) and used it less than 15% of the time in a single game just once from that point forward. His sinker was one of the best in baseball last year with -8 run value, tied with NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and outpacing American League Cy Young finalist Alek Manoah. That was one major factor, but his slider's improvement was another major factor in his better results.

For most of his career, Keller's slider consistently sat with less than 3-5 inches of horizontal break. But in mid-June, Keller made an adjustment that added nearly two feet of break and hit 16 inches of horizontal movement to the pitch. From that point forward, he threw the offering with at least 15 inches of break on average. He topped out with 22 inches of break on average with the adjusted pitch, which Baseball Savant now identifies as a sweeper.

Not only has Keller made improvements in 2022, but he's added yet another pitch. He's been throwing a low-90s cutter in Spring, and it's certainly helped him get his fair share of swings and misses. It's early, a small sample size, and Spring Training, so it means little, but he has allowed just one walk while striking out 13 in just 11 innings of work. If he can make it another above-average offering in his arsenal, Keller might just end up as one of baseball's most underrated pitchers.

Breakout Position Player - Jack Suwinski

Everyone, and I mean everyone, will have either Ke'Bryan Hayes or Oneil Cruz as their breakout position player. While I agree with both Cruz and Hayes being prime breakout candidates, I'm going to go with one player that receives a significantly less amount of attention: Jack Suwnski.

Suwinski had a fairly solid rookie campaign. Through 372 plate appearances, Suwinski slashed .202/.298/.411 with a .311 wOBA and 100 wRC+. As a batter, he posted numbers almost identical to the league average. Suwinski struggled with strikeouts, however. He K'd at a 30.6% rate but made it up with walks and extra-base hits. Suwinski walked in 11% of his plate appearances with an isolated slugging percentage of .209 and crushed 19 homers.

Suwinski also excelled on defense. He racked up +1 defensive run saved, +1 out above average, and a +7.8 UZR/150. This all came to a 1.8 fWAR in just 106 games and 372 trips to the dish. That comes out to a 2.5 fWAR in 150 games and 2.9 fWAR in 600 plate appearances. But I think Suwinski can be much better than just a league-average hitter next year.

The first reason is that Suwinski's struggles against LHP can be mitigated better this season. The additions of Connor Joe and Andrew McCutchen mean that Suwinski doesn't have to face an LHP every time a team starts one. When Suwinski faced same-handed pitching, he batted just .122/.225/.286 with a 47 wRC+. However, when he faced a right-hander, he batted .237/.330/.465 with a 122 wRC+. That's a 75% difference in wRC+. 

The second reason is a combination of two factors. One is that with the new shift rules, Suwinski will have a much more limited shift placed on him. Suwinski was shifted on in 71.2% of his plate appearances. The second reason is that he had a barrel rate in the 86th percentile. Barrel rate is how often a batter hits a ball with an exit velocity and launch angle that goes for a hit more than 50% of the time. With a 12.2% barrel rate, combined with the new shift rules, there will be a lot more opportunities for Suwinski to get a hit.

Sure, the strikeouts are a bit worrying, but he didn't let that get in his way when he faced right-handed pitching last year. Give him 400-450 plate appearances in a platoon role, and he'll play well. He could be a .240/.350/.450 batter next year and be an integral power hitter in the Pirates' line-up.

Breakout Pitcher - Johan Oviedo

Johan Oviedo is one of the many young pitchers the Pirates acquired during this rebuild. He's one of their more recent pickups, as he, alongside Malcom Nunez, went from the St. Louis Cardinals to the Bucs for Jose Quintana and Chris Stratton. Oviedo was considered a top-10 prospect in the Cardinals' system in 2021 and is now looking for an extended look in the big leagues.

Oviedo was mainly used as a reliever with the Cardinals this past season but became a part of the Pirates' rotation in September. He only made seven starts and pitched 30.2 innings but worked to a strong 3.23 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. Oviedo's walk rate (11.9%) and strikeout rate (20.9%) were not impressive, but he only allowed one home run and had a ground ball rate well over 50% at 54.5%. He was also about league average in terms of exit velocity, coming in at 88.4 MPH.

Oviedo's stuff played well with the Pirates. The right-hander averaged out at 96.5 MPH with his four-seamer. Usually, when a pitcher moves from the bullpen to the rotation, their velocity decreases, but not Oviedo. This was a 0.9 MPH increase. His slider also gained speed, going from 84.9 MPH to 86.5 MPH. He also threw a curveball that induced an exit velo of just 83.8 MPH and a change-up that had a 40% whiff rate.

Oviedo deserves to start the season in the rotation, and 2023 should be his first extended look as a major league starting pitcher. He definitely has a chance to become a vital member of the Pirates' long-term starting pitching core. His stuff is very promising, and he induced a ton of soft contact. He also has the potential to consistently strike out a quarter of the batters he faces or more.

Surprise Contributor - First Baseman Ji-Man Choi

The Pirates acquired Ji-Man Choi this past off-season to serve as a first base platoon partner with Carlos Santana. Choi has consistently been a solid batter. Last year, he slashed .233/.341/.388 with a .322 wOBA, and 116 wRC+. Choi is an on-base machine with a 13.8% walk rate and hit for about average power, coming to a .154 isolated slugging percentage.

Even though Choi was still 16% better than the league-average batter, it was a down year for his standard. The first baseman had a dismal second half with a sub-.300 wOBA (.256) and sub-70 wRC+ (69) after the All-Star break. Before the break, Choi had a .364 wOBA/145 wRC+.

Aside from a decent first half, what other reasons are there to believe Choi can rebound and be a surprise contributor? Choi played through the second half with an injury and received surgery to fix the issue. Despite his injury, Choi still showed off outstanding raw power, ranking in the top 93rd percentile of average exit velocity (92.2 MPH) and top 88th percentile of average hard-hit rate (47.5%).

However, the big reason is because of the new shift rules. Choi was shifted in about 84% of his plate appearances. When the shift was on, he had just a .304 wOBA. In the few plate appearances he had with no shift, he had a .405 wOBA. That's the difference between Paul Goldschmidt and Tommy Edman. It's the difference between an MVP-caliber hitter and a slightly below-league-average batter.

Now granted, that doesn't mean that I think Choi will go from a solid, above-average hitter to an MVP candidate. Teams are still finding ways to employ a shift. However, as we have seen in Spring Training, they haven't been nearly as extreme as in previous seasons, and it's led to higher batting averages on balls in play going for hits across the league compared to previous springs. Choi had a .337 xwOBA, but I think he could get to .350. I could see a situation where he posts something akin to 2021 Josh Donaldson or 2022 Adley Rutschman. They had a wRC+ between 125-133, batted around .250, and hit for plus power.

Final Record Prediction - 75-87

A lot could go right for the Pirates this year. If you get Cruz, Suwinski, Hayes, Bednar, Oviedo, Keller, Contreras, Castro, and Reynolds firing on all cylinders, and then supplement them with some of the talented prospects like Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, Nick Gonzales, Endy Rodriguez, Mike Burrows, and Colin Selby throughout the season, this team could be really, really good. However, that's the best-case scenario. The Pirates must show improvement this year. This will be the fourth major league season (third if you don't want to count the 60-game 2020) that the Pirates will be entering the year in a 'rebuilding' state. There must be improvement, and 70-75-ish wins seem to be the minimum they must win to show they're serious about getting competitive within the very near future.

They do have a lot going for them to reach this mark. The team's rotation is looking fairly solid entering the year. It's headlined by Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, and Rich Hill, with a mix of Johan Oviedo, JT Brubaker, and Vince Velasquez making up the last half. Line-up-wise, the only major weak spot is catcher. The Pirates will essentially get nothing but defense out of guys like Austin Hedges, Tyler Heineman, and Jason Delay, but the team could have a league-average or better hitter at every other position to open the year.

With the infield consisting of the Ji-Man Choi/Carlos Santana platoon, Rodolfo Castro at second base, Oneil Cruz at short, and Ke'Bryan Hayes at the hot corner, you could tell a fan that every member of this group will all have better than league average hitting numbers. It wouldn't (or at least shouldn't) surprise them. The outfield will be commanded by Andrew McCutchen, Bryan Reynolds, and a platoon of Connor Joe and Jack Suwinski. Again, the Pirates could get average or better production from the three outfield spots.

The bullpen does look a bit shaky going into the year, but it could fix itself by mid-season. Triple-A should start the year with Colin Selby, Tyler Samaneigo, J.C. Flowers, Tahnaj Thomas, Cody Bolton, and Nick Dombkowski. Some of those arms could help support the Major League bullpen, which includes the likes of David Bednar, Yerry De Los Santos, Colin Holderman, Jarlin Garcia, Jose Hernandez, and Robert Stephenson.

By the end of the year, you're looking at some mix of Rodriguez and Henry Davis behind the plate, Choi, Santana, and Malcom Nunez at first base, Rodolfo Castro, Ji-Hwan Bae, and Nick Gonzales at second base, with Oneil Cruz and Ke'Bryan Hayes on the left side of the infield. The outfield will have some mix of Reynolds, Suwinski, McCutchen, Joe, Bae, Travis Swaggerty, and Matt Gorski. The rotation could house five of Roansy Contreras, Mitch Keller, Oviedo, Ortiz, JT Brubaker, Rich Hill (if he isn't traded), Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows, Kyle Nicolas, or Carmen Mlodzinski.

That's not even mentioning the multitude of other young players like Jared Triolo, Tucupita Marcano, Liover Peguero, Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba, or Bolton, all of which could see major league playing time, and potentially take over a key role in 2023, whether that be a bench/platoon, utility, or even starting role. 

The Pirates have enough players between the Major League, 40-man, and Triple-A rosters to piece together a respectable big league team by at least mid-season 2023. I don't expect every prospect to hit the ground running full sprint, but I also doubt that every prospect will fall flat the instant they hit the big leagues. The team has added some veterans who will provide positive contributions (heck, they improved first base by at least 3-5 wins alone). They also have enough youngsters that they're bound to get at least some quality rookie seasons in 2023.