Series Preview: Pirates hope to continue strong start against Nationals

The opening series of the 2024 season could not have gone much better for the Pittsburgh Pirates as the Buccos swept the Florida Marlins to start their season off at 4-0. Now, the Pirates will turn their attention to the Washington Nationals on Monday in Washington D.C. , in hopes of continuing their hot start.

The Nationals opened their 2024 season by dropping two of three games to the Cincinnati Reds in Cincinnati including a 6-5 loss on Sunday afternoon in extra innings.

Last season, the Pirates dominated the seven game season series between the two sides, winning five of seven matchups including two of three last April in the nation's capital. With a win on Monday, the Pirates earned their first 5-0 start since the 1983 season. That year, the club would go onto win 84 games and finish second in the National League East.

But even with a win, the Pirates would still be a long way off their franchise record of 10 straight wins to start the season which they did in 1962. The Pirates would finish 93-68 that season and finished fourth in the National League standings.

Getting back to focus on this week's affair in Washington. Below, Rum Bunter will preview the Pirates second series of the season against the Nationals, looking at the projected pitching matchups, standout hitters to know at the plate, and more.

But first, here are the projected scheduled first pitch times and weather forecast for the series.

MONDAY - APRIL 1: 4:05 p.m. first pitch

It is not ideal weather at Nationals Park early on Monday with rain most of the morning and afternoon but Accuweather currently projects no precipitation after 3:00 p.m.

TUESDAY - APRIL 2: OFF DAY

WEDNESDAY - APRIL 3: 6:45 p.m. first pitch

The weather on Wednesday should be fine around first pitch. A chance for a few thunderstorms earlier in the day but by the time first pitch rolls around, it will be 60 degrees and no precipitation. The wind could play a small factor with gusts up to about 17 mph.

THURUSDAY - April 4: 4:05 p.m. first pitch

Thursday will be the best day of weather in the nation's capital with a projected high of 55 degrees. A slight chance of precipitation but the game shouldn't be impacted. Wind gusts once again could play a factor with the wind itself projected to be steady around 17 mph.

Now let's get into the projected pitching matchups.

PROJECTED PITCHING MATCHUPS

MONDAY: Marco Gonzales (LHP) vs McKenzie Gore (LHP)

The Pirates will start their season off by facing a fifth straight left-handed pitcher in the Nationals' McKenzie Gore.

The 25-year old left hander is coming off a 7-10 season in 2023 with a 4.42 ERA. He struck out 151 in 136.1 innings pitched while walking 57. The long ball was a killer for Gore last season as he allowed 27 home runs in his 27 starts, an average of one per game. He also posted a WHIP of 1.401.

From an advanced metrics standpoint, his ERA+ puts him below league average at 97 while his 4.89 FIP actually says he got a bit lucky last season at posting just a 4.42 ERA.

He has had good success against the Pirates in the past, however, allowing just five base runners across 26 plate appearances.

For the Pirates, left hander Marco Gonzales makes his Pirates debut. Gonzales enters this season with a 65-49 overall record and a 4.14 career ERA in 893 innings pitched. Last season, he was 4-1 with a 5.22 ERA in 10 starts for the Seattle Mariners.

WEDNESDAY: Mitch Keller (RHP) vs Trevor Williams (RHP)

On Wednesday, the Nationals will send right-hander Trevor Williams to the mound. The former Pirate was 6-10 last season with a 5.55 EERA in 30 starts. Like Gore, Williams gave up the long ball a ton, allowing a league-leading 34 home runs in 144.1 innings pitched.

For the Pirates, Mitch Keller will make his second start of the year after allowing four earned runs on seven hits and a pair of walks against the Marlins last Thursday.

The Nationals have had Kellers' number during his career, with nine runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Notably, Keller has not allowed a home run to the Nationals in his three starts against them.

THURSDAY: Martin Perez (LHP) vs Josiah Gray (RHP)

In the series finale on Thursday, Josiah Gray gets the ball for the Nationals. The former top prospect was solid in 2023, earning an All-Star nod. In 30 starts he went 8-13 with a 3.91 ERA across 159 innings pitched. He was susceptible to home runs and walks, however, with 22 home runs allowed and 80 walks. He also struck out 143 in 159 innings pitched. He'll look to improve upon his 1.79 SO/W ratio from last season.

However, in his 2024 debut for the Reds, Gray only went four innings, allowing seven earned runs.

Martin Perez had a very good Pirates debut over the weekend, allowing just one run in 4.1 innings pitched. He'll look to carry that success over to Thursday. In his career he has four appearances against the Nationals including three starts. In 15 innings pitched, he's allowed 13 earned runs on 21 hits and five walks equaling a 7.80 ERA and a 1.733 WHIP.

NATIONALS' PROJECTED STARTERS

Here is who we project to see as the Nationals' starters this week.

C - Kiebert Ruiz
1B - Joey Gallo
2B - Luis Garcia Jr
3B - Trey Lipscomb
SS - CJ Abrams
LF - Jesse Winker
CF - Eddie Rosario
RF - Lane Thomas
DH - Joey Meneses

ANALYSIS:

Once we get a bigger sample size, we'll try to include their 2024 stats in these lineup analyses. That being said, this is a Nationals lineup that has some quality potential. 

Starting at the backstop position, Kiebert Ruiz is a really bright young catcher. While he struggles defensively, the bat is real. Last season he hit to a .260/.308/.409 slash with 18 home runs and 67 RBI. He also didn't strike out a ton either, just 58 strikeouts in 523 at-bats. He's off to a good start with one home run and three RBI this season. 

There's obviously a ton of power potential in the lineup. Joey Gallo, Jesse Winker, Eddie Rosario, and Joey Meneses all can go yard on a routine basis but with that power potential there are obviously a ton of opportunities for strikeouts. As a team, the Nationals struck out 30 times against the Reds. 

What could ultimately decide the Nationals' success at the plate this season is the development of middle infielders Luis Garcia and CJ Abrams.

Both have continued to improve during their young MLB careers. Last season, Garcia posted a .266/.304/.385 slash with nine home runs and 50 RBI while Abrams showed his full skill set with a .245.300/.412 slash with 18 home runs and 64 RBI. He also had 47 steals in 51 attempts. If both continue to improve at the plate, the Nationals could have a great middle infield tandem for the foreseeable future. 

Of course, there's also Lane Thomas who had a major breakout season in 2023 with 28 home runs, 86 RBI and 20 stolen bases while posting a 114 OPS+.