Should the Pittsburgh Pirates consider going after Alek Manoah?

Two years ago, one of the best pitchers in baseball was Toronto Blue Jays' right-hander Alek Manoah. Manoah finished third in American League Cy Young voting. This was after an outstanding rookie campaign as well. But fast forward to 2024, and Manoah is struggling for the Blue Jays' A-Ball affiliate. At this point, the Blue Jays might just try and salvage whatever they can get from Manoah, and if they're willing to sell low on the former Cy Young finalist, should the Pittsburgh Pirates consider going after him? What would the pros and cons be, and would it be worth the Pirates' time and resources?

The Jays drafted Manoah in the 2019 draft in the first round and quickly ascended to the Major Leagues. He opened his career off with a 2.60 ERA, 3.51 FIP, and 1.01 WHIP through his first 308.1 innings in the Major Leagues between 2021 and 2022. He had above average, albeit not elite, peripherals, including a 24.7 percent strikeout rate, 7.3 percent walk rate, and 0.82 HR/9. Manoah's strong suit was limiting hard contact with an 87.3 MPH exit velocity and 5.5 percent barrel rate. Between these two seasons, the only other starters with a lower barrel rate were Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. He finished tied with Logan Webb and Luis Castillo, and he also had the eighth-lowest exit velocity and fourth-lowest hard-hit rate (31.4 percent).

However, then came 2023, and Manoah fell off a cliff. He only pitched 87 innings before being demoted to the minor leagues after posting a 5.87 ERA, 6.01 FIP, and 1.74 WHIP. His once solid peripherals also had a dramatic fall, with just a 19 percent strikeout rate, 1.55 HR/9, and a horrid 14.2 percent walk rate. After being one of the best soft-contact pitchers in 2021-2022, Manoah gave up hard contact like it was going out of stock. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate rose dramatically to 89.5 MPH and 44.4 percent, respectively, but more worrying was his 9 percent barrel rate. Manoah also lost a tick off his velocity, dropping from 93.9 MPH in '22 to 92.9 MPH in '23.

Now that we know who Manoah is let's look at reasons why the Pirates should and shouldn't go after Manoah.

Why the Pirates shouldn't consider going after Manoah

I mean, Manoah's performance speaks for itself. An ERA approaching 6.00, a FIP over 6.00, he was awful in 2023. Even in 2021 and 2022, his underlying ERA estimators weren't great. He had a 4.05 xFIP, 3.85 SIERA, and a league average DRA-. Is this someone the Pirates want to call on, even in a depth situation? Eric Lauer or Domingo German could probably post an ERA below 6.00. That's not a full guarantee from Manoah.

Yes, it was only one bad year in less than 100 innings pitched, but he's looked worse since getting sent down to the minor leagues. He pitched 7.2 innings last year after getting demoted, allowing 13 earned runs, five walks, two home runs, and striking out 13 batters. In two minor league starts this year, he has pitched just five innings, allowing 10 runs on 13 hits while walking five.

There's also other issues that don't even pertain to his on-field performance. Manoah reportedly came into 2023 Spring Training weighing 320 pounds. In his defense, he came into Spring Training 2024 looking much healthier, but there's other issues that need to be addressed. Manoah reportedly refused to report to Triple-A when the Jays attempted to option him.

Finally, where would he fit on the roster? The Pirates would have to send him to Triple-A. At the time of writing this, Pirates starters have reeled off seven straight quality starts (at least six innings of work with three or fewer earned runs). Four of those starts include no walks allowed. Josh Fleming has been excellent as the Bucs' multi-inning reliever this year. Aside from David Bednar having some poor command to start the year, the bullpen has been pretty good for the most part.

My Verdict

Manoah would be a great buy-low candidate but with extra emphasis on "buy-low." I think it would only be worth the Pirates' time if they pulled another Edward Olivares-type trade. Olivares was acquired for minor league utility man Deivis Nadal, who, in his age-21 season at A-Ball Bradenton, batted .212 with a 33 percent strikeout rate and 101 wRC+. Nadal wasn't considered anything beyond minor-league depth.

I think having Manoah as the sixth starter on the 40-man roster wouldn't be the worst. He seems like a good change of scenery candidate. He also still has two more minor league option years remaining right now. But given the Pirates' current depth chart, there's simply just not a good fit. Again, if the Pirates can get him pennies on the dollar, then go for it. But that also doesn't seem too likely.

In the end, if the Pirates had Manoah as their sixth starter on the 40-man roster, they’d have some good depth. But the Pirates don’t have a good opportunity for Manoah in the Major Leagues. Is putting time and resources into a sixth starter worth it? That’s up for you to form an opinion on, but if it’s for anything more than a low-level prospect or minor-league depth, the Pirates might be best to avoid going after Manoah for now.