The future of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation

The Pittsburgh Pirates seem set on building their team via pitching. They have a lot of it coming through their farm system, with the highly anticipated Paul Skenes making his debut very soon. But with so much pitching, how will the rotation potentially shape up? Who could we potentially see in the rotation long term?

Right now, it seems like the Pirates have a set trio they'll look to rely on for the foreseeable future. That trio consists of Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, and Paul Skenes. Keller was extended for five more seasons prior to the start of Spring Training this year. Although he has had some ups and downs since the second half of last year, he was still a very solid start for most of 2022 and the first half of '23. Jones has made a serious early bid to be a potential Rookie of the Year candidate. Skenes is slated to make his MLB debut Saturday. The Louisiana State University right-hander might be the most hyped prospect in baseball history, or at least since the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole in the early 2010s.

That's a pretty solid 1-3, but a rotation consists of five arms. What else could this rotation hold? Depending on the severity of Marco Gonzales' injury, he might return for a second season in Pittsburgh. Gonzales hit the IL with a flexor strain after just his third start of the year. He's still projected to return to the rotation this year. If so, he'll be a massive help to the Pirates. He opened the year with a 2.65 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 1.18 WHIP across 17 frames.

The Pirates hold a relatively cheap $15 million team option over Gonzales, which isn't bad for someone who previously had a track record of being both durable and solid. He was one of just seven starters from 2018 through 2022 with an ERA under 4.00 in 750+ innings pitched. But this is the second year in a row he has missed a notable amount of time. 

Another soft-tossing left-hander who has put themselves into staying in the rotation for a while is Bailey Falter. Falter did horrible in Spring Training and his first game of the season. But since then, he's logged 33.1 innings with a 3.24 ERA, 4.19 FIP, and 0.90 WHIP. While Falter has struck out less than 20% of opponents with an 18.7% rate, he's also been great at limiting walks with a 4.7% BB%. Home runs have given him some trouble, however, as he has a 10% barrel rate and 1.35 HR/9.

Still, Falter has been 10x better than many expected going into this year. The lefty is under control through 2028, and he's definitely earned his keep. If he continues pitching anything like this, Falter could be a really good middle-of-the-rotation starter. There's the potential that Falter is the worst starter in the Pirates rotation right now, but he still has an ERA under 3.50 over his last six outings.

The Pirates will also get Johan Oviedo back next year, assuming he progresses as planned. Oviedo pitched 177.2 innings in 2023 with a 4.31 ERA, 4.49 FIP, and 1.37 WHIP. His 10.6% walk rate, nor his 20.2% strikeout rate weren't outstanding, but he did keep his HR/9 under 1.00 at 0.96. But it was his first extended look in the Major Leagues after bouncing between Triple-A and MLB in 2020-2022 prior to heading over from St. Louis to Pittsburgh via the Jose Quintana trade. Oviedo still had 14 quality starts and 18 total outings where he went at least five innings, allowing three or fewer earned runs.

Oviedo, however, underwent Tommy John surgery early in December. That still puts him on track to return by Spring Training of next year. It was just unfortunate timing as the Pirates did not have much rotation depth at the time and Oviedo gave the Pirates a lot of outings. He was tied for the 4th most games started last year with 32.

But there are a lot of other arms in the Pirates' system who could potentially take over a rotation spot in the near future. Heading into this year, some had Bubba Chandler ranked over Jared Jones. Chandler had a sub-2.00 ERA in the second half of last season with massively improved command. He has opened the year at Double-A Altoona, where he's posted a strong 3.10 ERA, 3.30 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP in 20.1 innings. While Chandler has walked 12.2% of the batters he's faced, he also has a 28.8% K% and has only allowed a single home run.

Chandler arguably has an even higher ceiling than Jones. That's because he can throw just as hard as Jones, sitting in the upper 90s and topping out at 100 MPH. He also has a plus slider, an above-average change-up, and an average curveball. The command hasn't been great so far, but Chandler's ceiling is higher because of his athleticism. The Pirates drafted Chandler as a two-way SS/RHP. He's bringing the athleticism of a shortstop to the mound.

Another highly touted prospect in the system is Anthony Solometo. He's a soft-tossing lefty with arguably the best command in the system. He had a quality 2023 season and opened 2024 at Altoona alongside Chandler. So far, he hasn't been nearly as effective as his fellow rotation mate and 2021 draft pick. He's allowed nine earned runs in 16 innings. Although he has 15 K's, he also has walked a lot more batters than what you'd expect, already handing out 11 free passes.

Solometo hasn't had the best start to the year, but his most recent outing was his best one of the season. Solometo is also still just 21, and just a few months older than Paul Skenes. I wouldn't throw the towel in on him after less than 20 innings in 2024. He's someone else who could fit in the Pirates' rotation in the long haul.

The Pirates have a near overload of pitching talent in the organization.

Barco will likely soon get the bump from Greensboro to Altoona. It's quite possible that if Barco pitched a full season in 2023, he would have opened the year at Double-A instead. He missed the first half of the year due to Tommy John surgery that halted his final college season at the University of Florida in '22. He was then slowly eased back into action.

A potential X-factor that many forget about is Mike Burrows. Burrows could be a massive contributor in the second half of the year, assuming there are no setbacks in his Tommy John rehab. The right-hander was a borderline top-100 prospect at the start of last year. He was projected to eventually get a shot at a Major League rotation spot but underwent the dreaded elbow surgery in mid-April. Burrows last pitched in 2022 when he owned a 4.01 ERA but a 3.29 FIP and 1.21 WHIP with a 28.2% K%, 7.9% BB%, and 0.76 HR/9. Burrows also had just a 3.46 ERA prior to his final start of the season.

Burrows threw around 94-95 MPH but with a ton of spin. His curveball also approached 3000 RPM. Early in his career, there was debate whether or not he could stick as a starting pitcher long term. That was mainly because his change-up looked like a distant third pitch. But over the course of 2021-2022, he sharpened it up to the point where it became an above-average pitch. 

Braxton Ashcraft is one last guy worth mentioning. After missing nearly three seasons from 2020 through 2022, he came back strong in 2023, working to a 2.39 ERA, 2.85 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. He had a K% just a hair below 30% at 29.6%, with an even better 5.2% walk rate. Home runs were also a non-issue, with a 0.69 HR/9. Ashcraft was sitting in the mid-to-upper-90s with an above-average slider. He'll also mix in a curveball and change-up. But there are questions about whether or not he ends up as a starter or reliever long-term. 

The Pirates were, understandably, cautious with Ashcraft last year. Even though he made 19 starts, he never surpassed four innings in any game. Although he did put together a strong outing in his most recent start, he hasn't looked as sharp through the early stages of 2024. The worst-case scenario is that they pull a Kyle Nicolas, bump Ashcraft to the bullpen, and let him throw gas for one or two innings at a time.

Of course, there are a lot of guys below Double-A, like Patrick Reilly, Jun-Seok Shim, Michael Kennedy, Carlson Reed, Zander Mueth, and Hung-Leng Chang. However, the guys discussed above are likely going to get the chance to make an impact within the next year. So how is this rotation looking in the near future?

Well, obviously Skenes, Jones, and Keller are going to head the rotation, probably for the long haul. Oviedo will likely slot into the back of the Pirates' rotation once he's back up to full speed. That leaves the 5th and final spot of the rotation. If Marco's injury lingers, the Pirates likely won't pick up his $15 million option. If they opt to go this route, then it'll likely be between Falter and potentially Burrows for the last spot. Either way, Gonzales' contract is up after 2025 and the Pirates would need to find a replacement anyway.

Something that would be extremely bold would be to start the year with Bubba Chandler in the Opening Day rotation. He could be in a similar dilemma to that of Jones during Spring Training this year. If he continues to pitch well this year and does well in Spring Training 2025, he could force the Pirates' hand. In previous seasons, I'd probably say while I'd love to see that, it's not something I'd expect the Pirates would do. But after giving Jones the opportunity out of Spring Training this year and promoting Skenes so early into the season, I'm not nearly as skeptical of this.

Regardless, I think the long-term outlook for the Pirates' rotation is very bright.

There's so much depth and highly touted guys that this is easily what the Pirates need to build around. The rotation and pitching staff is one of the bright spots this year, and it should be for years to come.