3 bold predictions for the Pirates' 2024 season

The Pittsburgh Pirates' 2024 season starts in just a few days. This year will be a pivotal year as it has the chance for the Pirates to both finish above .500 for the first time since 2018 and potentially even compete for a Postseason sport, something they have yet to accomplish since 2015. Of course, some things have to go right, but I have some faith in this year's team.

But I have a few bold predictions as the Pirates head into the 2024 season. Hopefully, some will come true. Of course, I don't have a crystal ball or a Deloran with a flux capacitor to tell you what's going to happen, but I have some hope that these aren't entirely unrealistic, bold predictions.

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Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are both Rookie of the Year candidates

The Pirates have a boatload of young pitchers coming through the system. But two could end up being the best rookies in baseball this year, that being Jared Jones and Paul Skenes. The flamethrowing right-handers are two of Ben Cherington's most prized draft picks (especially Skenes) and should see ample time in the bigs next year. Although many have Skenes as a potential Rookie of the Year winner this year, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Jones. 

Skenes wrapped up a spectacular season at Louisiana State University in 2023, pitching to a 1.69 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio. Skenes struck out an awe-inspiring 45.3 percent of the batters he faced with a minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate. Skenes also only allowed seven home runs for an HR/9 rate of 0.51. Skenes did not pitch much for the Pirates' minor league system after getting drafted, logging just 6.2 innings between the Florida Complex League and Double-A Altoona.

Jones, meanwhile, is coming off a season where he had a 3.85 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP in 126.1 innings. Jones paired a respectable 9.5 percent walk rate with an even better 27.6 percent strikeout rate. He also wasn't very home run prone, with an 0.85 HR/9 rate. Although Jones saw his numbers dip from Altoona to Triple-A, he was going from a much more pitcher-friendly to a hitter-friendly environment. That includes seeing the league average ERA go from 4.66 in the Eastern League to 5.17, as well as having to adjust to the ABS.

Both Skenes and Jones don't just have great numbers but also have good stuff to back them up. Skenes averages 97-100 MPH with his fastball. During his Spring Breakout game, he threw six sinkers/four-seam fastballs. Just one registered below 100 MPH. Jones, meanwhile, averaged 98.2 MPH in Spring Training at about 2500 RPM. He threw the 8th hardest fastball among all pitchers in Spring with at least 25 four-seamers thrown. Skenes throws an elite slider and plus change-up, while Jones's slider sits in the upper-80s with good movement and pairs that with a curveball and change-up of his own.

Even if just one of Skenes or Jones finishes in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting, the Pirates will receive an extra draft pick in 2025. Unfortunately, it does not stack, and the Pirates won't get two if both Skenes and Jones finish in the top three in ROTY voting. Still, I think it's quite possible these two receive Rookie of the Year votes. Skenes was given a record-setting signing bonus for a reason. He's the most talented pitching prospect the draft has seen since Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole. Jones made some major strides in development last year.

Ke'Bryan Hayes finishes top five in MVP voting

Third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes had a breakout 2023 season. He batted .271/.309/.453 with a .324 wOBA, and 101 wRC+. Hayes hit nearly as many home runs in 2023 with 15 as he did in 2020-2022 when he hit 18. He also provided his typical elite defense at third base. This is the second season in a row he had over +20 defensive runs saved with +21. He also had +17 outs above average; the third straight season, he's racked up at least a dozen.

But from June through the end of the year, Hayes caught fire with the bat and didn't look back. Through his final 305 plate appearances of the season, he slashed .307/.334/.528 with a .363 wOBA and 127 wRC+. While Hayes had a solid 21.6 percent strikeout rate, he also rarely walked and had a 4.3 percent walk rate. But the improvements were significant. He had just a six percent barrel rate heading into June but hit for an 8.4 percent barrel rate after June. Hayes has always had great raw power and finished the season with a 92.2 MPH exit velocity. But he got much better at lifting the ball.

Hayes had a +2.9 fWAR throughout this stretch. In a full season where he appears in 150 games and has 650 plate appearances, he comes out to about +6.1 fWAR. Last season, six different players had +6.0 fWAR. All finished in the top five of MVP voting in their respective leagues, with Francisco Lindor being the only one who finished outside the top five.

I think it's a little too bold to go all the way and say that Hayes will win the NL MVP (of course, I wouldn't be opposed to that). But a six WAR player will typically finish among the top of MVP ballots. The improvements Hayes made last year are extremely encouraging. If he continues to hit anything like he did during the summer last season and keeps his elite defense up, he'll be one of the best third basemen in MLB, and possibly even the best in the National League.