Three high-ceiling/low-floor prospects in the Pirates’ system

Let's look at three of the Pittsburgh Pirates' high-ceiling/low-floor prospects in the farm system.

The Pittsburgh Pirates' farm system certainly has its fair share of talent. The top crop of the Pirates' farm is mostly made up of top pitching prospects, but they do have some talented position players like Termarr Johnson and Lonnie White Jr. While every prospect comes with risk, there are certain players that accentuate a high ceiling low floor.

Before we get into our first player, I first want to explain what it means if a prospect has a high ceiling but a low floor. Their ceiling is their highest potential, while their floor is their lowest potential. A high ceiling means there's a lot of potential, but a low floor means they're also a risk because they could flame out. Typically, these are prospects with a few elite tools in their skillset but have some glaring flaws, such as someone who rarely strikes out but doesn't have any raw power (and vice versa) or a pitcher with great stuff but poor command.

Mitch Jebb

Mitch Jebb was the Pirates' second-round pick out of Michigan State. The infielder has one of, if not the best, hit tools in the Pirates' system. He's also an extremely fast runner. However, there are concerns about his long-term ability because of his lack of raw power.

Jebb batted .337/.438/.495 in his final 241 plate appearances. Jebb may have had 15 doubles, but just a single home run. He rarely struck out with an 11.6% K% but complemented it with an even higher 13.3% walk rate. 2023 was par for the course for Jebb in his college career, as he finished off his time at Michigan hitting .327/.413/.464 with 35 doubles in 685 plate appearances, only seven home runs, but a 12% walk rate, and a microscopic 9.9% strikeout rate.

Jebb's heavy contact-focused approach carried over into Bradenton. In the 153 plate appearances he logged at A-Ball, Jebb slashed .297/.382/.398 with a .373 wOBA and 116 wRC+. He struck out just 11 times for a K% of 7.2%, the 8th lowest among any minor leaguer with 150+ plate appearances. He continued to draw plenty of walks, however, with an 11.1% BB%. Jebb used his speed to go 11-12 in stolen base attempts.

As you can tell by his stats, Jebb puts a heavy focus on his ability to make contact and avoid strikeouts. He also draws a decent amount of walks. But he also does not hit for very much power. Jebb also runs well and swiped 38 bases throughout college. Jebb has seen time at both middle infield positions as well as the hot corner. His speed gives him good range, but he has a below-average arm for the left side of the infield.

Jebb's profile could mean he ends up being Luis Arraez 2.0 but with speed. However, that also means he could end up as Kevin Newman 2.0. I am optimistic that he can be better than Newman. Although his power isn't significantly better than the Pirates' former first-round pick, Jebb seems much more capable of drawing a walk. It is still a risky profile, so we shall see how he develops.

Patrick Reilly

Patrick Reilly is a relief pitcher archetype: 60+ grade stuff, ≤40 grade command. Selected in the fifth round out of Vanderbilt, Reilly showed off some impressive offerings but had serious issues with consistently hitting his spots, leading to a ton of walks. This carried over into his pro career once he was signed and suited up for Bradenton.

Reilly pitched 48.1 innings, working both as a reliever and a starter for Vanderbilt. The right-hander struck out 28.9% of the batters he faced with a solid 1.1 HR/9 but handed out a walk to 13.3% of opponents. That significantly high walk rate is part of the reason he had a 5.77 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. For what it's worth, he pitched significantly better out of the Commodores' bullpen with a 3.79 ERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, 0.71 HR/9, and a significantly more practical 10.3% walk rate.

Reilly joined Jebb at Bradenton after the draft, pitching 10.2 innings, striking out 19 more batters, and posting a 50% ground ball rate. But these were about the only positives for Reilly in his first taste of pro baseball. He also allowed two home runs and walked eight batters. It's barely a game's worth of innings, but there were some positive and negative takeaways.

Although Reilly throws a four-pitch mix, he'd benefit from pitching out of the bullpen full-time. He hits the mid-upper 90s in shorter stints with high spin. Between his slider and cutter, the former is the better breaking ball. When Reilly has command over his slider, it's a potential plus offering. His cutter is closer to average, as is his change-up (though it is his least used offering).

There are a ton of relievers with great stuff who eventually figure out their command and become effective big leaguers. Could Reilly be one of them? Only time will tell. His numbers out of Vandy's bullpen were promising as he significantly cut his walk rate down. Hopefully, he can replicate something like that in the minor leagues next year.