Three Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospects on the rise

Last year, prospects like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Anthony Solometo made some significant gains in prospect stock. They all played well and improved upon things that they struggled with in previous seasons. Every team has prospects who take a step forward, and while the 2024 minor league season just started, there are definitely some early standouts in the Pittsburgh Pirates' system who could be on the rise and ones you might soon hear more about as the season goes on.

Carlson Reed

Carlson Reed was the second college arm the Pirates took in the 2024 draft after Paul Skenes. Reed is a right-hander who attended West Virginia University. Heading into the draft, Reed was mostly seen as a relief pitching prospect. He saved seven games for the Mountaineers while working to an excellent 2.61 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate, and 0.47 HR/9 through 38 innings. However, he struggled to limit walks and had a 14.5 percent BB rate. This led to a worryingly high 1.53 WHIP.

But while Reed was a dominant late-inning arm for WVU, he’s been excellent as a starting pitcher for Bradenton so far into the 2024 season. He has pitched 15.2 innings with 23 strikeouts, only three earned runs allowed, and 11 hits. Free passes, however, have still been a bit of an issue, as he’s handed out ten walks. Reed has also yet to allow a home run. Carlson has gotten a ton of swings and misses with a 39.5 percent whiff rate, the 4th highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 200 pitches at A-Ball. Even when batters are making contact, he’s getting them to ground out softly with an 83 MPH exit velocity and a ground ball rate of 53.3 percent.

As a starting pitcher, he’s sitting around 93-94 MPH with his sinker and four-seam fastball and topping out around 95. His primary breaking pitch is a slider that sits 83-84, and his primary off-speed offering is a change-up that also has similar velocity. His fastball has shown good ride through the zone with only 15.4 inches of drop, but also has some movement to it with 7.8 inches of arm-side break. His slider has been next to untouchable. Batters have a whiff rate of 62.7 percent against it with a .176 wOBA. He’s gotten even more swings and misses on his change-up at 83.3 percent. While his sinker hasn’t induced nearly as many swings and misses, opponents have produced a meager 74 MPH exit velocity against it. 

If Reed can stick as a starting pitcher, it would be a massive revelation for the Pirates. His command is a little shaky, and that could be exploited by hitters as he moves up each rung of the minor leagues. But his stuff looks outstanding. He’s getting a ton of swings and misses and not allowing opponents to get any good batted balls off of him. 

Alessandro Ercolani

Alessandro Ercolani just turned 20 a few days after writing this. The right-hander from the small country of San Marino had decent numbers at Bradenton last year and is now at Greensboro. There’s a real possibility that, with the way Ercolani has pitched so far, he could make it to Double-A Altoona before the end of the season in just his age-20 campaign.

Last year, Ercolani had a 4.43 ERA, 4.85 FIP, and 1.43 WHIP through 65 innings of work. He struck out 24 percent of the opponents he faced with a workable 11.3 percent walk rate and 1.11 HR/9. Ercolani was about as league-average as you could get in the Florida State League last season. But he was also the 5th youngest pitcher in the same league.

Ercolani has pitched 13 frames for Greensboro so far. He has only struck out nine batters, but only four have reached via free pass. He’s allowed just a single home run and has a ground ball rate of exactly 50 percent. Overall, Ercolani has allowed just two earned runs in total, giving him a 1.38 ERA thus far.

Ercolani was throwing in the 93-94 MPH range last year for Bradenton while nearly hitting 98 MPH. He also throws his fastball with good ride through the zone with only 14.6 inches of vertical drop. The way he releases the ball also gives it some deceptive qualities. His most used breaking pitch is a cutter that sits in the mid-to-upper-80s. The right-hander’s primary off-speed pitch is a change-up that he throws to a similar velo to his cutter. He’ll also occasionally mix in an upper-70s curveball. Ercolani has displayed a violent follow-through at times, which could be a reason for his unimpressive walk rate so far in his young career.

Right now, Ercolani is the second youngest starter at High-A Ball. Heck, he was the ninth-youngest pitcher with at least a dozen starts at A-Ball last season, not just the Florida State League. That has to say something about his talent. The fact he didn’t do poorly last year, far from it, and is now off to a good start to 2024 is extremely promising. It’s possible he will become one of the most underrated pitching prospects at Double-A by the end of the season and in the Pirates’ system.