Three Pittsburgh Pirates pitching prospects on the rise

Last year, prospects like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Anthony Solometo made some significant gains in prospect stock. They all played well and improved upon things that they struggled with in previous seasons. Every team has prospects who take a step forward, and while the 2024 minor league season just started, there are definitely some early standouts in the Pittsburgh Pirates' system who could be on the rise and ones you might soon hear more about as the season goes on.

Carlson Reed

Carlson Reed was the second college arm the Pirates took in the 2024 draft after Paul Skenes. Reed is a right-hander who attended West Virginia University. Heading into the draft, Reed was mostly seen as a relief pitching prospect. He saved seven games for the Mountaineers while working to an excellent 2.61 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate, and 0.47 HR/9 through 38 innings. However, he struggled to limit walks and had a 14.5 percent BB rate. This led to a worryingly high 1.53 WHIP.

But while Reed was a dominant late-inning arm for WVU, he’s been excellent as a starting pitcher for Bradenton so far into the 2024 season. He has pitched 15.2 innings with 23 strikeouts, only three earned runs allowed, and 11 hits. Free passes, however, have still been a bit of an issue, as he’s handed out ten walks. Reed has also yet to allow a home run. Carlson has gotten a ton of swings and misses with a 39.5 percent whiff rate, the 4th highest among pitchers who have thrown at least 200 pitches at A-Ball. Even when batters are making contact, he’s getting them to ground out softly with an 83 MPH exit velocity and a ground ball rate of 53.3 percent.

As a starting pitcher, he’s sitting around 93-94 MPH with his sinker and four-seam fastball and topping out around 95. His primary breaking pitch is a slider that sits 83-84, and his primary off-speed offering is a change-up that also has similar velocity. His fastball has shown good ride through the zone with only 15.4 inches of drop, but also has some movement to it with 7.8 inches of arm-side break. His slider has been next to untouchable. Batters have a whiff rate of 62.7 percent against it with a .176 wOBA. He’s gotten even more swings and misses on his change-up at 83.3 percent. While his sinker hasn’t induced nearly as many swings and misses, opponents have produced a meager 74 MPH exit velocity against it. 

If Reed can stick as a starting pitcher, it would be a massive revelation for the Pirates. His command is a little shaky, and that could be exploited by hitters as he moves up each rung of the minor leagues. But his stuff looks outstanding. He’s getting a ton of swings and misses and not allowing opponents to get any good batted balls off of him. 

Hunter Barco

The Pirates took Hunter Barco in the second round of the 2022 draft, but he wouldn’t make his professional debut until the second half of the 2023 season. Barco had pitched great in college, but it would take some time before he would return to the mound. But Barco didn’t skip a beat upon his return.

The Bucs were cautious with Barco’s use, only letting him pitch 18.1 innings across nine outings. But the results were great, as he allowed just seven earned runs, six walks, and struck out 28 batters. Barco did not allow a home run either and had a ground ball rate over 50 percent through his first taste of pro baseball.

Barco was only tossing 89-91 MPH last year with Bradenton. But during his brief cameo in the Spring Breaking game this past March, he was sitting 93-95 MPH. His best pitch is considered his change-up, but he’ll also throw a good slider as well. Barco’s lower arm slot and his good command can make his stuff play up.

Barco’s start to 2024 has been nothing short of astounding. He’s only pitched 11 innings but has allowed a single earned run. He has yet to allow a home run as a pro pitcher and currently holds a ground ball rate of 56.5 percent in the small sample size. Walks continue to be a non-issue, as he’s handed out a trio of free passes while striking out 14 batters.

Barco is currently in his age-23 season, so it should not be long before he reaches Altoona. Had he not undergone elbow surgery in 2022, started the next season on the IL, and returned in a limited role, he may have already been a part of Altoona’s starting rotation. Regardless, he’s back and fully healthy and could quickly climb prospect rankings if he pitches anything like he has once he gets to the next rung of the minor league ladder.