Three potential under slot draft picks to keep an eye on for the Pirates

Each draft pick has an assigned slot value. Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ first overall pick had a slot value of $9,721,000. The Pirates’ pick, Paul Skenes, signed slightly under slot at $9.2 million. This would help them save money for other picks later on in the draft, namely high school right-hander Zander Mueth. This isn’t the first time Ben Cherington has done this as Pirates’ General Manager, as he took Henry Davis first overall and signed him to under slot value in ‘21 to help him later be able to sign Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White Jr., Owen Kellington, and Braylon Bishop.

Now he has also gone the other way, no doubt. Termarr Johnson would be a primary case, however it is all likely about the Draft class. Hopefully, this is another deep class that the Pirates will be able to take advantage by having additional picks.

Given that Cherington has now done this two times in his three full drafts (not counting 2020’s five-round draft), I would not put it past him to do this again in the 2024 draft. If there’s an opportunity to take an under-slot player so he can take an over-slot prospect in the second or third rounds, he might do it again. If this happens to be the approach Cherington takes, who could be on the Pirates’ radar?

Tommy White

If the Pirates want to get a first baseman and a potential future middle-of-the-order bat while still going under slot, Tommy White could be the way to go. The LSU corner infielder has been one of the top sluggers in college baseball the last three seasons. Gaining popularity after setting the freshman home run record in 2022 at NC State, White has since swung his way through the SEC and could end up going in the first round of the draft.

White is currently batting .336/.427/.596 with 11 dingers in 171 plate appearances. He has struck out just 9.9% of the time while having an 11.1% walk rate. White’s power is down from the last two years. He slugged well over .700 in both 2022 and 2023. But his .260 isolated slugging percentage is still better than the SEC average. All told he has a .437 wOBA with LSU this season.

White’s walk rate is slightly below the conference average, but he rarely strikes out because of how aggressive he is at the plate. He swings out of the zone a lot but has yet to have any trouble making contact on pitches off the plate. On top of that, he’s had no trouble making quality contact on outside offerings. However, some are skeptical about how that approach will translate into pro ball. White has only played third base for LSU, but has limited range at the hot corner. While his arm is good enough to play at third, he’ll likely have to move to first base long-term.

Because of that, he’d likely go past the first ten picks. But a team, namely the Pirates in this case, could take him early so they can save some money for later in the draft. Whatever team that takes Tommy Tanks this year is taking him for the bat. His approach might need some tweaking, as it could get exploited as he moves up the minor league levels, but he could still develop into a good hitter.

Thatcher Hurd

Going under slot obviously doesn’t have to happen in the first round. The Pirates chose an under-slot player in the 2022 draft, Thomas Harrington, as their competitive balance round A pick. Harrington was considered a high-floor/low-ceiling prospect at the time, so what if the Pirates went in the opposite direction this year and selected a high-floor/low-ceiling pitcher? One pitcher who best encapsulates this is LSU right-hander Thatcher Hurd.

Let’s first start with the positives with Hurd. Hurd has struck out 24.4% of batters he’s faced this year and has 35 K’s in only 28.2 innings. He also has a respectable 9.8% walk rate and 0.94 HR/9. His fastball is plus and sits mid-90s, but his slider is elite. Most have measured the upper-80s breaking ball at around 3000 RPM. For reference, only one pitcher in MLB last season had a slider average out with 3000+ RPM, and that was Lucas Sims. His curveball can also flash plus.

Now, let’s look at the bad. Hurd has a 6.59 ERA and 1.81 WHIP for LSU this year. Hurd has good stuff and fringe control but poor command. Obviously, he looks good when he hits his spots, but he has had a hard time locating. He’s given up 38 hits in 28.2 innings.

Hurd is a project. He has an extremely high ceiling, but that command leaves some real question marks. The right-hander may end up in the bullpen long term where his stuff can play up, and his command can be hidden better. But if he can even get fringe-level command, the stuff could make him a very intriguing future starting pitcher.