Three underrated extension candidates for the Pittsburgh Pirates

Connor Joe

Connor Joe has had a winding road to and from Pittsburgh. Originally a first-round competitive balance pick by the Pirates in 2014, the Pirates traded Joe to the Atlanta Braves in 2017 for Sean Rodriguez. Joe never appeared in the Majors for Atlanta, as he was then shipped to the LA Dodgers for international bonus money. The next off-season, he was selected by the Cincinnati Reds out of the Rule 5 draft and traded to the San Francisco Giants, where he appeared in eight MLB games, but later was returned to the Dodgers. The Colorado Rockies then signed him, where he spent the 2021 and 2022 seasons before being shipped back to Pittsburgh for minor leaguer Nick Garcia.

Joe's first season back in black and gold was solid, as he hit .247/.339/.421 with a .332 wOBA and 107 wRC+ through 472 plate appearances. The first baseman/outfielder hit for about league-average pop with a .174 isolated slugging percentage and 11 home runs. Joe drew walks quite frequently, with a 10.6% walk rate. His 23.3% strikeout rate was only slightly worse than the league average, which overall left him as an above-average hitter in 2023. He had some ups and downs throughout the season but showed some improvements in the second half of the campaign.

Joe split his time between the corner outfield and first base. Between the two, he spent more time in left/right field, where he logged 543.1 innings. He was not bad defensively in the grass, with -3 defensive runs saved, but +1 out above average and a 90.4 MPH outfield throw velocity, which was in the top 84th percentile of players. His first base defense also was respectable, with -2 DRS, but +1 OAA, and +5.5 UZR/150 in 343.2 innings.

Joe has more control remaining than Borucki, a lot more. He doesn't become a free agent until after the 2027 season, which means he has four full years of control remaining. But an extension now could save some money in arbitration later. Plus, the Pirates might be able to buy out a year or two of free agency. But Joe is already 31 and will be 32 by the end of the season, so he's not a young gun. Still, having Joe under contract and not worrying about arbitration, as well as potentially buying a year or two of his free agency, would be a smart move on the Pirates' end.

Edward Olivares

One of the biggest new additions the Pirates made from this past off-season was acquiring Edward Olivares from the Kansas City Royals. The Pirates acquired Olivares for next to nothing, as the only thing they had to surrender was Devivis Nadal, a minor league utility man who struck out about a third of the time at A-Ball. Olivares, meanwhile, has had two very solid seasons with the bat in 2022 and 2023, flying under the radar, and could make even more strides in 2024 with the Bucs.

Last year, Olivares batted .263/.317/.452 with a .329 wOBA, and 105 wRC+ through 385 plate appearances. The outfielder provided the Royals' line-up with some pop, going yard a dozen times with an above average .185 isolated slugging percentage. He is also not prone to striking out with just a 16.6% K% and 22.9% whiff rate. However, he also isn't prone to drawing walks either. He posted an identical 5.7% walk rate in both 2022 and 2023. 

Olivares was outstanding in the second half of the year. After a slow first half, Olivares ended the year, batting .299/.355/.528 with a .376 wOBA and 138 wRC+ through his final 138 plate appearances of the year. He still kept his strikeouts to a minimum with a 15.9% K% but was walking slightly more frequently at a 6.5% clip. Olivares had six home runs and 11 doubles, leading to a .223 isolated slugging percentage. 

Olivares struggled defensively with Kansas City, having -11 defensive runs saved and -7 outs above average. But there are some reasons to believe he could improve in 2024. The first is that he has good speed. Olivares was in the 83rd percentile of sprint speed last year at 28.6 feet/second. The second is that he has a powerful arm. Olivares' throws from the outfield averaged 91.4 MPH. Only 40 players' throws averaged 91+ MPH last season. Lastly, he's going from the cavernous Kauffman Stadium, which has some of the deepest dimensions among all MLB parks, to PNC Park. That's not to say that PNC doesn't have its deep points, but it's smaller compared to Kauffman.

The Pirates have control of Olivares until 2026 if they so choose.

His first free agent year will be 2027, whether that be with the Pirates or someone else. Olivares is currently only in his age-28 season, meaning he'll only be 31 when he hits free agency. I think now would be a good time to extend Olivares. He's still fairly young and has many positives right now. Of course, that's also a reason for Olivares to wait it out. But there are enough positives for the Pirates to pursue a possible extension with Olivares over the next year. An extension to buy out his arbitration years, plus two or three seasons into free agency, would lock down Olivares for a decent amount of time.