When everyone is super, no one will be. Baseball's descent into boredom and arm injuries

As White Sox pitcher Steven Wilson told ESPN, “There is a strong correlation between velocity and arm injuries.  But there is also a strong correlation between velocity and people not hitting the ball.”

1968 was known as the year of the pitcher in major league baseball.  In 1968 the average runs per game per team was 3.42 and the average player batting average was .237.  The poster child for pitcher dominance that year was Bob Gibson, who went 22-9 with a 1.12 E.R.A.  The 1.12 E.R.A. was the lowest E.R.A. ever recorded by a primary starting pitcher in baseball history.

Alarmed by the lack of offense in 1968, major league baseball made the decision to lower the pitching mound by five inches.  That rule change took place at the start of the 1969 season.

I mention the 1968 season because Major League Baseball seems to again be entering an era where pitching is dominating.  Thus far in 2024 the average player batting average is .237, the exact same average as 1968.  There are several differences though.  In 1968 there was no designated hitter in either league.  Pitchers regularly batted.  Today, pitchers do not bat.  The designated hitter is in place in both leagues.  And yet the batting averages are still the same as 1968—the so-called year of the pitcher

The second biggest difference is that in today’s game, every hitter is capable of hitting a homerun, whereas in 1968, not only did pitchers not hit home runs, neither did most starting shortstops and most starting catchers.  Most teams, in 1968, had one or two power hitters at best.  In today’s game, every hitter is capable of going yard.  In 1968 there was an average of 0.614 homeruns hit per team per game.  In 2024 there is an average of 1.0 homeruns hit per team per game. 

That difference accounts for the fact that even though the average batting average is the same at .237, in 2024 the average runs per game per team is 4.32 vs. 3.42 for 1968. It also means, however, that more runs in 2024 are the result of a runner trotting home vs. the more exciting runner sprinting home to beat a throw to the plate that was the hallmark of this bygone era. The number of outfield assists has been in decline for decades.

So with more and more pitchers entering the league capable of throwing harder and harder, it is likely that there will continue to be a rise in strikeouts and a decrease in batting averages.  It’s 1968 all over again.  Will Major League Baseball do something about it?  And if so, what?

I have a modest proposal.