When everyone is super, no one will be. Baseball's descent into boredom and arm injuries

“And when everyone is Super, no one will be.”  This quote is from the evil villain Syndrome in the animated movie, The Incredibles.  His evil plan in the movie is to invent tools and machines that can make ordinary people Super and then sell those tools and machines to everyone so that everyone will become Super.  Which then leads to the iconic quote--complete with a diabolical laugh--, “And when Everyone is Super, no one will be.”

I am reminded of that quote every time I see yet another MLB pitcher who can touch 100 mph on the radar gun.  Ten years ago, Aroldis Chapman was the only pitcher that could touch triple digits with regularity.  Growing up, it was Nolan Ryan who held the mantle of throwing the fastest pitches.  There were no radar guns then, so how fast Ryan threw in his prime can only be estimated. Ryan and Chapman were singularly unique for their time and their greatness commanded our attention.

But nowadays, it seems like every team has a pitcher that can throw 100 miles per hour.  Some teams have multiple such pitchers.  When Paul Skenes gets called to the majors, the Pirates will have three pitchers—Jones, Skenes, and Chapman—who touch 100 mph. 

The race seems to be on to develop these pitchers--arm injuries be damned.  The teams that can get the most flamethrowers on the roster at once seemingly have a competitive advantage.  And pitchers are more than willing to participate in this race for velocity knowing that the harder they throw the more money they will potentially earn. What is seemingly not said is that the harder a pitcher throws, the more likely he is to be injured.

And this race for velocity is creating two big problems for Major League Baseball.  First, it is resulting in an epidemic of arm injuries to pitchers who can throw gas.  And secondly, it results in more strikeouts per game, which leads to fewer balls put in play, which leads to fewer runs scored. 

As White Sox pitcher Steven Wilson told ESPN, “There is a strong correlation between velocity and arm injuries.  But there is also a strong correlation between velocity and people not hitting the ball.”

1968 was known as the year of the pitcher in major league baseball.  In 1968 the average runs per game per team was 3.42 and the average player batting average was .237.  The poster child for pitcher dominance that year was Bob Gibson, who went 22-9 with a 1.12 E.R.A.  The 1.12 E.R.A. was the lowest E.R.A. ever recorded by a primary starting pitcher in baseball history.

Alarmed by the lack of offense in 1968, major league baseball made the decision to lower the pitching mound by five inches.  That rule change took place at the start of the 1969 season.

I mention the 1968 season because Major League Baseball seems to again be entering an era where pitching is dominating.  Thus far in 2024 the average player batting average is .237, the exact same average as 1968.  There are several differences though.  In 1968 there was no designated hitter in either league.  Pitchers regularly batted.  Today, pitchers do not bat.  The designated hitter is in place in both leagues.  And yet the batting averages are still the same as 1968—the so-called year of the pitcher

The second biggest difference is that in today’s game, every hitter is capable of hitting a homerun, whereas in 1968, not only did pitchers not hit home runs, neither did most starting shortstops and most starting catchers.  Most teams, in 1968, had one or two power hitters at best.  In today’s game, every hitter is capable of going yard.  In 1968 there was an average of 0.614 homeruns hit per team per game.  In 2024 there is an average of 1.0 homeruns hit per team per game. 

That difference accounts for the fact that even though the average batting average is the same at .237, in 2024 the average runs per game per team is 4.32 vs. 3.42 for 1968. It also means, however, that more runs in 2024 are the result of a runner trotting home vs. the more exciting runner sprinting home to beat a throw to the plate that was the hallmark of this bygone era. The number of outfield assists has been in decline for decades.

So with more and more pitchers entering the league capable of throwing harder and harder, it is likely that there will continue to be a rise in strikeouts and a decrease in batting averages.  It’s 1968 all over again.  Will Major League Baseball do something about it?  And if so, what?

I have a modest proposal.

Move the pitcher’s mound back while simultaneously raising the height of the pitcher’s mound 5 inches back to its 1968 height.  I have no empirical data or mathematical or physics calculations or anatomical expertise to support this suggestion.  Only half-baked theories.  So here are my theories.

1. By moving the mound back, it will give hitters the extra milliseconds they need to better recognize pitches and get their swings off. It should thus result in more contact, fewer strikeouts, and thus more runs being scored.

2.       The added height on the mound will make up for the further distance pitchers have to throw the ball if the mound is moved back. By raising the mound, pitchers will have some added gravity to back their pitches.  Could raising the height of the mound possibly cause less strain on the arm?  Maybe, maybe not.  As I said this theory was half-baked with absolutely no scientific backing. 

But getting back to this lowering of the mound thing.  The MLB storyline is that the lowering of the pitcher's mound in 1969 solved the problem of pitcher dominance and resulted in more offense.  In 1969 the average runs per team per game increased from 3.42 in 1968 to 4.07 in 1969 and the average batting average increased from .237 in 1968 to .248 in 1969. 

But the detail that gets left out in that analysis is that in 1969 major league baseball expanded from 20 teams to 24 teams.  In 1969 the league welcomed the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Pilots, the Kanas City Royals, and the Montreal Expos to the Major Leagues.  That created openings for 100 extra baseball players, who otherwise would not have made a major league roster in the prior year.  Baseball expansion always produces more offense in the first year of expansion due to the dilution of pitching talent. 

Historically, the new teams are not good and their pitching is mediocre at best which leads to an uptick in offense as teams fatten their statistics off the expansion team’s poor pitching.  So, the uptick in offense in 1969 was not solely the result of lowering the pitcher’s mound, if that was a cause at all. The expansion of four new teams to the league also played a major part. For instance, MLB added two new teams (Toronto and Seattle) in 1977. This resulted in the average number of runs per team per game rising from 3.99 in 1976 to 4.47 in 1977. Similarly, in 1993, the last year that the MLB expanded, the addition of the Florida Marlins and the Colorado Rockies led to an increase in average runs per game per team from 3.95 in 1992 to 4.60 in 1993. Of course, some of that increase could be attributed to the Mile High Stadium/Coors Field effect.

There is an interesting take on the lowering of the pitching mound in Jim Bouton’s book, Ball Four, which chronicled Bouton’s 1969 season with the Seattle Pilots. In the book, he discusses his teammate’s—Mike Marshall’s—theory on the lowered mound.  Here is the excerpt:

“Mike Marshall is a right-handed pitcher who was 15-9 in the Tiger’s organization last season.  He’s got a master’s degree from Michigan State.  He majored in mathematics.  He’s a cocky kid with a subtle sense of humor.  He’s been telling everybody that the new lower mound, which was supposed to help the hitters, actually shortens the distance the pitcher has to throw the ball.  It has to do with the hypotenuse of a right triangle decreasing as either side of the triangle decreases.  Therefore, says Marshall, any psychological advantage the hitters gain if the pitcher doesn’t stand tall out there will be offset by the pitchers knowing that they are closer to the plate.”