Where it all went wrong for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates

The 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates entered the year with playoff hopes. After a 14-game improvement between 2022 and 2023, as well as playing above .500 ball throughout the final 67 games of the year, there were a lot of things to look forward to. Heading into August, they were even a potential contender, just one game out of the Wild Card and six out of the National League Central division.

But at the time of writing this, they are just 66-74. A horrific month of August that has seemingly carried over into September has caused a once-promising season to go completely off the rails. But what reasons, specifically, can be blamed for this horrendous downfall?

One very obvious flaw many will point out is Derek Shelton's bullpen management (or bullpen mismanagement). Colin Holderman and David Bednar have combined for 13.2 innings pitched, 19 earned runs allowed, three homers, 22 total hits, and 11 walks to oppose 14 Ks since the skid began. Sure, both performed well in the prior months. But Shelton's unwillingness to take either out of their late-inning/high-leverage roles was one big reason for the late-season collapse. Both allowed the opponent to score what would end up being the winning run seven different times. 

It took the bullpen blowing a seven-run lead, where David Bednar allowed five runs to score, for Shelton to finally take him out of the closer role. God knows how many more late-inning opportunities Holderman would have had if he hadn't landed on the injured list. 

Pirates have been derailed by Derek Shelton's stubbornness

The worst part of all of this is Shelton had other options. The trio of Aroldis Chapman, Dennis Santana, and Kyle Nicolas combined for 39.1 innings in August. They struck out 48 opponents to oppose seven walks (a 6.86 K:BB ratio), allowed just three home runs, and permitted a total of 13 earned runs. That is an ERA of 2.98. Only Chapman got a ninth-inning save opportunity during this stretch, and he only got one on August 31 after all the damage was done.

Another flaw that has plagued the Pirates all year is their inconsistent hitting. This year, the Pirates are batting .235/.302/.371 with a .295 wOBA, and 86 wRC+. They rank bottom five in MLB in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. But these numbers do not fully encapsulate some of the horrible hitting instruction that has happened at the Major League level.

This team shows a severe lack of aggression. When the Pirates do swing and make contact, it's usually good contact, marked by an 89.1 MPH exit velocity and 8.2% barrel rate. Unfortunately, they rarely give themselves the opportunity to take advantage of that. They have just a 64.3% in-zone swing rate, the fifth-lowest in baseball. They swing the bat in total 46.6% of the time, the seventh-lowest in the sport.

Not to mention, many of their players have taken huge steps back in 2024. Jack Suwinski hit 26 homers and had a 112 wRC+ in 2023. His .234 isolated slugging percentage was the second-best among NL outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances, only trailing NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. This year, Suwinski likely won't even hit 10 homers and has a wRC+ of just 62.

Suwinski isn't the only one who has seen huge regression. The Pirates acquired Edward Olivares after he had a .769 OPS, .329 wOBA, and 106 wRC+. He hit for a .624 OPS, .276 wOBA, and 73 wRC+ prior to getting DFA'd. The Pirates brought in Michael A. Taylor after he hit 21 homers and had a 96 wRC+ while providing Gold Glove-caliber defense for the Minnesota Twins in '23. While the defense has been as advertised, he might not even hit five dingers, and will need a hot streak to have a 50 wRC+ at the end of the season (he currently sits at 44). 

Ke'Bryan Hayes has obviously had a huge letdown of a season, but a large portion of his struggles can be chalked up to a herniated disc. Only one hitter has truly improved since getting to Pittsburgh, and that's Joey Bart, but how much of that is Bart living up to his former expectations vs. the Pirates truly improving his game is undetermined. However, that's not to mention the multiple former prospects hitting well at Triple-A only to look completely different in the big leagues, like Henry Davis and Ji-Hwan Bae.

The question becomes how many times are the Pirates going to allow players who have previously had MLB success or prospect pedigree to all of a sudden look lost at the plate the next year? It's normal when it happens a few times. It's a massive issue when it happens to nearly every single player who produced well the prior year.

The Pirates do not have a bad roster, but their ability (or inability) to properly utilize it has been another big reason for their late season collapse, and that has shown this year, especially late in the season. Alika Willimas has a career .518 OPS, .233 wOBA, and 41 wRC+. Sure, his defense up the middle has been good, but Williams has been recalled twice this year. If Williams was the only issue, then this wouldn't be a problem. 

The Pirates called Domingo Germán up in early August in the middle of the slide. Germán hasn't only had unsavory moments off the field (and been suspended for them), but had a 5.29 ERA, 5.41 FIP, and 1.43 WHIP prior to his promotion. It went about how you'd expect, as Germán allowed 18 earned runs, four home runs, and walked (13) nearly as many batters as he struck out (18). Germán should have only been an emergency option.

Another blunder was promoting Billy McKinney. Unlike Germán, McKinney had some solid numbers at Triple-A, including an .846 OPS, .377 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. Plus, he wasn't horrible with the New York Yankees last year. But the point of the matter is that the Pirates have better players with more potential waiting in the wings at Triple-A, and McKinney shouldn't have been viewed as anything more than depth.

Instead of Domingo Germán, why isn't Mike Burrows getting the call? I understand he might not be back to a full workload because he missed nearly all of 2023 and the first half of 2024, but in most cases, 3-to-4 innings from Burrows would have been more valuable than whatever Germán would have done. Williams shouldn't be here, but instead, Nick Yorke, one of the Pirates' deadline acquisitions who has a .916 OPS, .408 wOBA, and 141 wRC+ at the Triple-A level this year, would be a perfect fit. McKinney should not have been here over Billy Cook, yet another deadline acquisition who is crushing Triple-A pitching (.850 OPS, .377 wOBA, 121 wRC+).

When September rosters expanded, the Pirates did not call upon any of Burrows, Yorke, or Cook. Burrows is on the 40-man roster already. Both Yorke and Cook will need to be added this offseason to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. The Pirates did not need to promote Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington, as any of Burrows, Yorke, or Cook would have sufficed.

All of these things have combined for yet another disappointing season, and another late season collapse. The most frustrating thing of all of this is that much of it was easily avoidable. Calling up prospects instead of a depth players like Germán or McKinney, and taking both Bednar and Holderman out of their roles earlier could have drastically changed things. The Pirates need to make a change, and hopefully, some will come this offseason.