Zander Mueth's deceptiveness could make him the Pittsburgh Pirates' best pitching prospect

MLB teams are always looking for pitchers with deceptive qualities. How they hide the ball in their windup, the arm angle from which they release each of their offerings, their ability to tunnel fastballs, breaking pitches and offspeed offerings, and how far out in front of the mound they throw the ball are all factors that can keep batters off balance and always guessing, and can help a pitcher’s stuff play up to another level.

The pitching prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ system with the most deceptive qualities is right-hander Zander Mueth. The Pirates’ second-round pick of the 2023 draft, Mueth, has displayed a ton of talent in his first pro ball sample size. Mueth throws his offerings 7.1 feet in front of the rubber. His two-seamer is tracked at 93.6 MPH on average, but because of how far he releases the pitch out of his hand, it looks more like a 94.6 MPH pitch to a batter. Mueth has a low arm slot with a vertical release point of just 4.67 feet off the ground.

Mueth has the best extension and the lowest arm angle of any Pirates minor league pitcher who has played in a Statcast park this year and has thrown at least 100 pitches. Mueth is almost a one-of-a-kind when it comes to his low arm slot and release point. There are currently just three MLB pitchers with a vertical release point below 4.70 feet with a release point extension of seven feet or more. That includes Seth Martinez, Tyson Miller, and Alexis Diaz -- but Diaz, the Reds' closer, is the only one who throws harder than Mueth.

Pirates prospect Zander Mueth has deceptive tools to become fast-riser

Even then, it’s not out of the question Mueth could add some velocity. Mueth turned 19 in June and has an intimidating frame on the mound. He is listed at 6’6” and 205 pounds. There’s still time for him to add some strength and another tick or two of velocity to his already hard sinker.

Unlike some of the other names floated above, Mueth still projects as a starting pitcher. The Pirates' standout has three offerings that project as average or better. His two-seamer has good velocity and break, featuring 21.9 inches of vertical movement and 14.7 inches of horizontal break. His slider sits mid-80s with 36.4 inches of drop and 2.4 inches of break. The righty’s changeup also sits mid-80s, but with an impressive 36.6 inches of drop and 13.1 inches of break. Neither Martinez nor Diaz have ever started a major league game, and Miller has started just three of his 63 MLB appearances. 

There’s definitely potential for Mueth to develop an unrivaled level of deceptiveness between his arm angle, release point, and velocity. That should help his already above-average stuff play up even more. In a few years, we could be talking about Mueth like we talk about Thomas Harrington or even Bubba Chandler.