Predicting destinations for Pittsburgh Pirates’ rental players after trade deadline

The Pittsburgh Pirates will be sellers at this year's deadline. While it's questionable if they will trade any of their players who are under control through 2026 and beyond, one thing is certain: they will be trading off their rental pieces. They've already dealt one in Adam Frazier to the Kansas City Royals. However, they still have four more notable rentals who are almost guaranteed to be on different teams by August 1. With the deadline quickly approaching, the Pirates will likely trade these four rentals to these teams.

Predicting where Pittsburgh Pirates' rental players will land after MLB trade deadline

Tommy Pham

At one point this year, Tommy Pham was hitting worse than some pitchers in the Pirates' history. After June 21, Pham was only batting .194/.278/.219 with a .232 wOBA and 41 wRC+. Pham's 10.7% walk rate was about the only positive from his first 176 plate appearances. His only extra-base hits consisted of four doubles, and he struck out 26.7% of the time. 

Pham then had a change in prescription to adjust for a degenerative eye conditionhe was initially diagnosed with in 2008. Since that change, he's been on fire. His last 99 trips to the plate have seen him bat .411/.455/.656 with a .469 wOBA and 205 wRC+. Pham's walk rate has fallen to 8.1%, but his strikeout rate has fallen to just 14.1%. He also has four home runs and eight doubles. His wRC+ on the season, which once sat below 50, has now risen to 100, which is league average.

Pham's defense has remained solid throughout this entire season. He has +6 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average. He is still in the 65th percentile of arm strength as well. In terms of jump and route running, Pham is around average in both regards. Most of his playing time has come in left field, but he has logged a few innings in right field.

The team that seems to make the most sense for Pham's services is the San Diego Padres. The Padres have used a myriad of left fielders this year. Gavin Sheets has been their primary answer over the last two months, but he likely fits better in a 1B/DH role. The Pirates also regularly make trades at the deadline with the Padres, and given their need for a corner outfielder, Pham ending up in San Diego seems like a very real possibility.

Caleb Ferguson

Caleb Ferguson has been an excellent pick-up by the Pirates this season. In 43.1 innings, Ferguson has a 3.74 ERA, 3.14 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP. His 8% walk rate is the lowest he has put up since his 2018 rookie campaign (not including 2020). Ferguson has allowed just a single home run all season as well. The only downside is that he is not getting as many strikeouts as before. Ferguson had a 27.5% K% from 2018 through the end of the 2024 season. However, that has dropped to just 19.3% this year.

There's almost no question that Ferguson is the best pitcher this year at limiting hard contact. He is in the 100th percentile of both exit velocity at 83.5 MPH and hard hit rate at 25.2%. His 3.3% barrel percentage is the only non-100th percentile hard hit stat, but it is still in the 97th percentile. This is why it took him until late July to allow his first home run of the season.

Ferguson has been one of the most valuable left-handed relievers in the game this season. Among qualified southpaw bullpen hurlers, Ferguson has the seventh-best win percentage added at +1.25. It's not as if he is only a low-leverage pitcher, either. His 1.45 leverage index is also in the top ten among lefty relievers. 

Arguably, the best fit for Ferguson would be the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays only have two left-handed relievers with 20+ IP. One is Brendon Little, who is having an outstanding year. However, the other is Mason Fluharty, who has struggled for the most part. The Jays are reportedly still in the market for relievers. Plus, their defense would play extremely well into Ferguson's pitching style this season. As a team, they have +36 defensive runs saved and +12 outs above average. The Pirates love making trades with the Blue Jays, too, making this an even better fit.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a 2024 trade deadline pickup by the Pirates. His production at the plate this season has not been great. He is only batting .265/.307/.330 with a .283 wOBA and 77 wRC+ over 332 plate appearances. IKF has never been a power hitter, but his .065 isolated slugging percentage is currently a career-worst mark. He rarely walks, with a 4.5% BB%, but at least he has a strong 16.9% strikeout percentage.

IKF's defense at shortstop gets mixed reviews from defensive metrics. DRS has him as an above-average defender at +3 runs. However, OAA has him as a negative glove, coming in at -3 outs. This is expected, as he has a +31 DRS and -11 OAA at short for his entire career. IKF has plenty of experience at second and third base, two positions where he has graded out much better.

Kiner-Falefa likely fits best on a team that needs an extra infielder that could utilize him as a utility man, rather than as a full-time replacement for a starter. One team that could use an extra infielder is the Seattle Mariners. They could see IKF as a fallback option if they miss out on Eugenio Suárez. While Suarez would be a full-time addition, IKF could instead help take the pressure off of some of their talented rookies, specifically Cole Young at second base and Ben Williamson at third base.

Andrew Heaney

While Pham started off ice cold and is now scorching hot, left-handed starting pitcher Andrew Heaney is taking the opposite path. In his first 72.1 innings of the year, Heaney owned a 3.24 ERA, 4.39 FIP, and 1.15 WHIP. He only had a 17.5% strikeout percentage, but had a roughly league-average 1.12 HR/9, and an above-average 8.1% walk rate. Sure, there were some signs of possible regression, with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity and 8.7% barrel percentage to go along with his unimpressive K% and BB%, but most ERA estimators still had him as a low-to-mid-4.00 ERA type pitcher.

However, the wheels have completely fallen off for Heaney since. His last 34.1 innings have seen him yield 31 earned runs. Heaney has cut down on the walks even more with a 7.1% BB%, but his already low strikeout rate has fallen even further to 16.7%. Home runs have become a massive issue, with a 2.86 HR/9 and 12.8% barrel percentage. Two of Heaney's past seven starts have seen him allow seven earned runs, and four have seen him allow multiple home runs.

While Heaney's value has fallen over the last month, he is still getting interest from other teams. Based on the rumors, it seems one of Heaney's former teams could be a potential landing spot in the New York Yankees. They need a pitcher who can give them innings right now. Yankees starters have the sixth-fewest innings pitched since the start of June. Heaney likely wouldn't be their big answer to fix the holes in their rotation, but could at least give them some stability.