Predicting who will be closing games for the Pirates by the end of the season

The back end of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen has already struggled significantly to start the year. David Bednar did so poorly that he was optioned in the first week of the season. Colin Holderman is now on the IL and was performing poorly out of the gates. But plenty of season remains, and the man occupying the closer role could look a lot different at the end of the season.

Right now, it looks as if 2024 breakout reliever Dennis Santana will get a crack at the closer job to begin with. Santana has already recorded a save, but has also allowed three walks and two earned runs, albeit in only his first 5.1 innings. Granted, 5.1 innings and not even two weeks into the new season isn’t definitive proof as to whether or not he’s cut out for the closing gig.

However, based on how he did last year, Santana as the go-to answer is a good choice. In just his second game with the Pirates, Santana allowed six earned runs and a home run in just one inning. But after that, Santana became one of baseball’s most underrated relievers. He allowed six more earned runs after that point, but in 42.2 innings, resulting in an ERA of just 1.27. He also had a sub-2.00 FIP at 1.97 and a WHIP of just 0.82.

Santana’s K% sat at over 30% at 31.1%, while his walk rate was an elite 5.6% rate. Home runs and hard contact were nearly nonexistent against Santana. He allowed just one dinger while keeping opponents to an 84.3 MPH exit velocity and 2% barrel percentage. Only four relievers throughout this stretch (June 18th through the end of the year) had a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP and a sub-1.00 WHIP.

Which (underrated) Pirates bullpen pieces will receive save opportunities in 2025?

Another underrated arm that may see some save opportunities this year is Justin Lawrence. Claimed off waivers from the Colorado Rockies, the side-arm right-hander has tossed five innings, only allowing one earned run, striking out seven, and walking three to open his Pirates tenure. But, again, this is way too small of a sample size to make a definitive conclusion.

Unlike Santana, Lawrence’s 2024 was rough. He had just a 6.49 ERA, 5.63 FIP, and 1.78 WHIP in 59.2 innings. Lawrence only struck out 16.1% of opponents with a walk rate of 11.8%. Despite a quality 0.61 HR/9 and 4.9% barrel percentage with the Rockies in 2022-2023, Lawrence saw his HR/9 rise to 1.36, and his barrel rate jump to 7.7% in 2024.

Lawrence clearly struggled badly last year, so why could he be a better candidate than Santana to close games out? Keep in mind that Lawrence has pitched in Colorado for most of his career. His ERA and opponent OPS drop from 6.92 and .876 at home to 3.83 and .675 on the road. Another much more important factor is the quality of his stuff. 

The break on his sinker and sweepers drastically changed solely because of Coors Field’s thin atmosphere. Sinkers and sweepers are two of the worst pitches to use in Coors Field because their spin and movement are greatly affected by the altitude. Lawrence only threw sinkers and sweepers last year. More consistent break on his pitches will lead to a better feel for his stuff and likely better control. Lawrence is already showing an uptick in Stuff+ to 108, a career-high mark. He also has the edge over Santana in this department. On top of that, Lawrence has some experience as a closer, saving 11 games in 2023.

Santana and Lawrence likely have the best chance of being the Pirates' closer by the end of the season, but Ryan Borucki deserves a mention as well. While Borucki struggled in his first attempt at a save this year, it was only his fourth attempt at a save in his Major League career. Caleb Fergurson has also looked good to start the year, but he’s primarily worked as a seventh/eighth inning arm in his career; removing him from his comfort zone may not be wise while Pittsburgh is undermanned.

Top prospects Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows could also be late-inning/high-leverage options later this year. Depending on how Carmen Mlodzinski performs as a starter, he may also get moved back to the bullpen and back into a higher-leverage role, like the one he served in during 2023 and 2024.

But, by the end of this season, don't be surprised if Lawrence is closing out games while Santana is the set-up man. Lawrence has the edge over Santana in potential, given his plus stuff and deceptive arm angle, but Santana pitched so well last season that it would be hard to envision him not being at least a solid back-of-the-bullpen arm. Either way, the Pirates have a very promising tandem in the bullpen between these two right-handers, and both are not bad options moving forward to take over higher-leverage roles.