Projecting a Brandon Lowe extension to make Pirates' blockbuster trade worth it

The Pittsburgh Pirates' addition of All-Star second baseman Brandon Lowe — just mere days after missing out on Jorge Polanco in free agency — should be a boon for the middle of the lineup in 2026.

Lowe, 31, earned his second trip to the Midsummer Classic in 2025 with the Tampa Bay Rays. He hit .256/.307/.477 (114 wRC+) with 31 home runs, the second-best mark of his career after 2021 (when he hit 39 bombs).

Yes, his defense bottomed out this year (-13 Outs Above Average) and he continues to strike out in more than a quarter of his plate appearances, but he's a true power-hitting threat from the left side. That's something the Bucs — who ranked dead last in MLB in home runs this past season — need desperately.

However, he's entering the final year of the eight-year extension that he signed back in 2019, and the Pirates will have to pay him $11.5 million in 2026. Assuming he continues to slug and entrenches himself nicely in Pittsburgh, what might a new extension with Lowe look like?

Brandon Lowe's extension should be affordable, even for Pirates

There are a couple factors to consider from both sides before we start throwing around numbers.

For one thing, Lowe will be eligible for the qualifying offer next offseason, which the Pirates will surely slap him with if he continues to play at an All-Star level. The QO historically has suppressed veteran players' markets, hence why a record four players accepted it this offseason. Already in his thirties, Lowe may be inclined to take the one-year deal worth somewhere around $23 million.

Then again, with a lockout likely looming for the 2027 season, perhaps Lowe will want to seek a long-term contract before the economics of the sport change dramatically. Even if were to come at a lower annual salary.

For those wondering if the Pirates can even afford an extension with Lowe, remember that, despite their frugality in free agency, they've handed out three extensions in recent years with a total value above $70 million; on a relatively short-term deal, even at a high AAV, they can make a deal work.

Plus, second base isn't an expensive position; only eight players at the keystone in 2025 made even $10 million, and Marcus Semien led the way at a $25 million AAV.

With declining defensive metrics and the threat of a qualifying offer looming, it isn't hard to imagine the Pirates getting Lowe to sign a favorable deal. Jorge Polanco's two-year, $40 million contract with the Mets might actually be a perfect comparison, since he signed it at 32 years old (the age Lowe will be when he starts his next contract).

They may have to toss an extra year onto the offer, given his All-Star credentials, but a $20 million annual salary for a second baseman with 30-homer bona fides seems like a win-win for both sides... assuming the Pirates are willing to spend that kind of money.